Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[boadicea] 05/10/2007 16:00

Iain - I would be hoping for a rather larger lump of initial licence revenue (although I suppose recognition of that might be phased to give smoother growth) followed by a steady build of service revenue. The latter will give a better picture of long term prospects imho.
Share price will be probably be influenced in the shorter term by cash flow considerations and in particular the ability or otherwise to avoid a further placing(s) - at least until the institutions are clamouring for stock rather than having to issue it to pushers.

[iain123] 05/10/2007 15:15

Has anybody done any predications for this share or is it too blue sky and hard to predict?

Assuming sales increase by 25% yr on yr (like the last 3 years) and cost increase by only 10% yr on yr we get breakeven in 2008
0.5mill profit in 2009
1.2mill profit in 2010
So at the moment the market cap reflects the company in 2010.

Is 25% sales increase too conservative?

[igoe104] 05/10/2007 14:38

It looks like twic project, looks like its kicking off.

More information on it.



Should be a big ramp up in revenues for h2.

[jailbird] 05/10/2007 10:41

thanks WJ.

[wjccghcc] 05/10/2007 10:28

On full dilution, with full conversion of the convertibles, warrants and options, they'd have 48.7mm in issue, though obviously in that case you have to eliminate the 1.7mm debt and add cash from the options exercise (40-47p).

For what it's worth, I'd hope for FY revenues of 3.2mm this year rising to 4.5mm next year which gives EPS of 3p even with 48mm shares.

[jailbird] 05/10/2007 09:49

i think it put all the possible dilution that could happen and then work out
the mkt cap at the current price, and with what we believe is on the way with revenues...should we be worried?

[aphrodites] 05/10/2007 09:45

boadicea

Many thanks. I didn't have the Annaaul report to hand.

Interesting to see that under note 24 Credo which is the Group's corporate finance advisor has a warrent to subscribe for up to 1,017,100 ordinary shares at the July 2003 Placing Price of 7.8p at any time up
to 29 May 2008.

This is only next year and I wonder if this is the reason for the current weakness in the share price. Are they considering subscribing and placing the shares and does someone know about this??????????????????

Very interesting. Do I detect another unpleasant whiff!!!!

Having said that if I was Credo I would take up the shares and hold.

[boadicea] 05/10/2007 09:06

APHRODITES - Reading the resolutions of the last AGM, it appears that a further £64k (approx) of 1p nominal shares could be issued, i.e. 6.4m shares, after taking into account the £21k nominal issued in the recent placing.
The directors were empowered to issue £205k nominal in total, the majority of which are reserved for issue against convertible conversion and Credo warrants - whatever they are.
The authority expires at the close of the 2009 AGM - unless of course, renewed or replaced by a new one.
Please read the original - - to check my interpretation. (Resolutions appear on page 27 of the pdf.)

[aphrodites] 05/10/2007 08:17

rambutan

The 100k trade could be looked at in two ways.

Either Hargreave Hales was the seller and is still sitting over the market offering stock or it could be the buyer having led the market down with very small sales and caught one of the MM's on the wrong foot by asking for a price in 100k and bought the lot off him! This would account for the MM trying to keep a lid on the rise.

Either way this share price is still being manipulated and will continue to be so until Peel Hunt starts to do its job properly and attracts a couple more institutions on board. Even then if an institution wanted to buy 500k shares what price would it have to pay? As we all know the liquidity in the market is very poor.

Does anyone know; does the IGP Board have the authority to issue a chunk of shares if it receives an attractive offer from an institution which wishes to invest in it?

[rivaldo] 05/10/2007 07:46

Yep, great spot WJ - ta.

[garth] 05/10/2007 06:01

Thanks for that welcome news WJ! :0)

G.

[rambutan2] 04/10/2007 23:31

clearly someone must be.

still, today's lack of trades (2 buys totalling 2677 shares) just goes to show how unfollowed igp is.

does anyone own up to buying the 100k at 40p yesterday?

[aphrodites] 04/10/2007 15:47

rivaldo

It's about time Peel Hunt started to earn their wages and get a few more institutions interested.

Is Hargreave Hale still sitting on the selling side?

[rivaldo] 04/10/2007 12:36

FYI good coverage in the FT today (at least it doesn't mention UK ID cards or dividends - dividends, gimme strength!):



"Buoyant first half at Intercede
By Jeremy Lemer

Published: October 4 2007 03:00 | Last updated: October 4 2007 03:00

Intercede, the maker of identity management software, pointed to "excellent progress" in trading as sales rose 20 per cent for the six months to September 30.

According to KBC Peel Hunt, the company's broker, the outcome implies revenues of about £1.45m (£1.21m) for the first half, boosted by a licence agreement and a £500,000 payment from Thales, the French defence company.

In the year to March 31 Intercede generated full-year revenues of £2.6m and a pre-tax loss of £439,000.

Analysts said, however, that the volatile nature of its revenue streams made predicting full-year results for the current year difficult.

Intercede's MyID software, which helps customers manage their suite of identification systems, has been selected by several US and UK government agencies but timelines for some of those contracts remain undecided.

The shares rose 4½p to 37p."

[ponty] 04/10/2007 00:26

My two buys not showing one at 8.15hrs /8.17hrs

cant see them on plus ether

[igoe104] 03/10/2007 20:09

yep your right accumulator.

14:57 40.00p 100,000 £40,000 Buy O
10:12 38.00p 20,000 £7,600 Sell O
13:46 39.00p 12,726 £4,963 Buy O
08:00 34.50p 10,000 £3,450 Sell O
15:22 39.00p 6,410 £2,500 Buy O

[accumulat0r] 03/10/2007 18:58

Nice to see that trade today for 100k @ 40p. It wasn't there earlier when I checked around 17:00. So the MMs delayed reporting it for at least 2 hours - probably being a bit crafty, hoping no one notices it!

[boadicea] 03/10/2007 15:15

Ghf - You were not alone. I have added 3 times in the past month. Poor timing, but at least no longer showing a loss.

[glasshalfull] 03/10/2007 15:09

Just logged on to see today's excellent RNS release.
Certainly appears that IGP are beginning to deliver as I intimated last week (when comparing them to SVR in terms of promise being fulfilled).
I was under the impression that I appeared the sole person adding over the last fortnight, so quite relieved truth told.

Good to see you in these Rivaldo :-)

Regards,
GHF

[rambutan2] 03/10/2007 14:37

imho the rns today officially derisked igp - a landmark day for shareholders.