Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[ponty] 03/10/2007 11:38

my two buys not showing yet one at 8.15hrs /8.17hrs

[237gmoney] 03/10/2007 11:20

Also the company would have been spending more in H1 with all the contracts running so revenue must be high to maintain £1.5m plus in the bank. My target of £3m-£3.5m for the yr may look conservative now, would be nice if they could get in more, but it all depends on how things go in H2. Hopefully this new girl they've taken on in the states is doing the business...

another RNS on contract news now in the next few weeks will give this another leg up and kick start a good run up. Should see some positive press tomorrow as well now.

[wjccghcc] 03/10/2007 11:07

Aphrodites, I was thinking of your implication that the FD had misjudged the cash needs of the business and that they'd run out by Nov/Dec whereas those of us who knew the company better were saying he ran a tight ship and had done so for the last 7 years. Even without the Thales license, they'd still have had 1.1mm cash and that's after the seasonally weaker H1.

In any case, no matter now.

[accumulat0r] 03/10/2007 10:58

Looking at the chart, I'd say there's a little bit of resistance at 40p (ish) to get through. If we can push through this level later today or tomorrow, we should head onwards and upwards. I'd say the very worst-case scenario is for the shareprice to consolidate around 40p prior to the lead upto the December results. (As opposed to the possibility of falling to 30p level, mentioned by some folks earlier today.)

[aphrodites] 03/10/2007 10:41

WJ

Just returned from a meeting to see the announcement. Very good!

I do not think I have posted anything that requires me to apologise to the management.

In fact one must question why the management and their borker ever allowed the share price to fall and test the 33p last placement level.

Remember I pointed out that the shares never broke this level; I did not like the smell and I hoped my gut feel and chart signals would be proven wrong.

I am the first to admit my latter concerns were wrong.

But this announcement has clearly been made as a defensive act and in the face of the fall in the share price. Where would the share price be now if had been made when it was trading around 45p?

After today's announcement I am even more convinced someone has been playing silly b---ers in the market.

But credit where credit is due. The announcement and trading scene appear very positive. Unless that same placement institution is playing silly games and is offering stock to a MM this share price should be back in the mid 40p's.

The company broker needs to start earning its fees and convince a few more institutions to climb on board and to take out some of the loose stock in the market. If there is any around when they try to buy it!!!!!!!!!

[237gmoney] 03/10/2007 10:19

exactly what Im thinking HB. thanks for the chart. I tried to get JT interested in this one but with the company not yet producing profits and therefore no real eps its hard to sell it, but that will all change. 20% increase in H1 yr on yr and H2 is traditionally much better - Cashflow last yr in H1 was a neg £707k with H2 +£248k so you can see the company has made major strides in the last 12 months.....If labour get in again and UKID cards get the go ahead, IGP are in prime position to get the big contracts and with this in mind, this company could really be another QXL but thats my wishful thinking....still with US government contracts on board, the next 12 months could easily see share price double and then some...

[horneblower] 03/10/2007 10:06

I like this chart. Although it might hit 35p again I think 70p by spring seems reasonable.

[garth] 03/10/2007 09:45

WJ,

O/T re DYS. If I had funds available I would probably be nibbling now. 15% further down and I will probably trim another holding elsewhere in order to add.

Not advice though!

G.

[237gmoney] 03/10/2007 09:39

I agree this share could easily start to drop again if the company stop releasing newsflow but traditionally October-March is the best time for aim stocks and last year was an example with the share rising from 30 to 70p and I think this could do the same this time again as the projects that IGP have been working on are starting to really get going now.

HSPD12 deadline is Oct 27th so I expect some news on this in the next month, FRAC is starting to get going as is TWIC so there should be updates on these, I notice Portsmouth are now getting the NHS SSO smartcards as well so IGP will be involved in that with Gemalto....and I could go on and on.

[smartmoney100] 03/10/2007 09:28

ponty, dosen't show up for 2 hours. Small NMS

[taurusthebear] 03/10/2007 09:26

Good for the company to update at period end, but I was just commenting on the likely price action as I see it. Also, ponty tends to buy the peaks, he did so with IND a year or so ago! ;0)

[yump] 03/10/2007 09:26

Good grief, one of my small co. shares has gone up suddenly !

[ponty] 03/10/2007 09:23

my two buys not showing yet one at 8.15hrs /8.17hrs
no trades since 8.11hrs

[wjccghcc] 03/10/2007 09:20

Perhaps Taurus but that's the nature of small AIM stocks where the price is primarily driven by PIs.

At least management realise that and we are now getting updates four times a year which is appreciated.

[carly2] 03/10/2007 09:09

WJ,
Well done with all your encouragement to keep the faith!! Recent times have certainly been trying..
Regards

[wjccghcc] 03/10/2007 09:05

What not many people realise is the 2 forms of recurring revenue IGP is building.

The first is the purchase of more licenses once a project is up and running - staff turnover, contractors, temps etc. will all require a card issued. Secondly, they usually receive approx 20% of the license cost as annual maintenance for each card in issue. Clearly the license cost will vary depending on the size of the scheme, but I'd estimate average maintenance revenues to be about 40p a card.

At end March, they'd issued licenses for up to 2mm cards giving recurring revenues of 800k once they're all issued. By end 08, I'd expect that to be 4mm cards and revenues of 1.6mm - 50% of their costs.

You can see where this is heading if you have a little patience.

[237gmoney] 03/10/2007 08:45

we should finish above 40p today, and hopefully this upward trend should now start.....those that sold out on the downward slope will be sick now....still its not too late to come back

[237gmoney] 03/10/2007 08:42

Seems I got my Trading update I asked for!!! ;o) ye of little faith! Who said I couldnt get one? over £1.5m in cash in the bank says alot, +£250k in H1 as well and H2 is the better half which should suggest this company is going to make a profit this year....

oversold stock, cheap as cheaps......fill yer boots guys, this will head back to year highs before the full year results, as only positive RNS news to come.

Great news today....and Im pleased that the management listened.
(p.s good to see the seller has gone....took his time! hopefully nothing will stop this share price now)

[wjccghcc] 03/10/2007 08:38

Welcome aboard riv.

[rambutan2] 03/10/2007 08:38

thankyou Mr Walker, just what we needed.

[wjccghcc] 03/10/2007 08:37

jailbird, I suspect the 500k from Thales is the reason they're cash positive since usually they have a seasonal outflow in H1 and inflow in H2. However, even deducting the 500k would have given an outflow of only 256k which is a a significant improvement on last year and would have put them on course for a net inflow for the year.

In any case, it's unfair to deduct the Thales license since I'm sure they've incurred a lot of costs expanding and integrating MyID to be the centre of the Safesign system.

It bodes well for the full year, especially given they're unlikely to have received any cashflow from TWIC which is ramping up over the next 15 months. Assume $5 a card and that's $4mm. Shame about the weak FX rate :-(