Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[volsung] 01/7/2010 09:37

I certainly think so

[wad collector] 01/7/2010 08:29

Time for a dip?

[philanderer] 25/6/2010 13:15

Liberum Capital initiating coverage with a 'buy' this morning and a 900p TP

[enami] 16/6/2010 14:39

Down to S3 today, falling through the 50MA and 100MA, hopefully it finishes over the 100MA at 751.5.
Still an unfilled gap at 707.5 which I suspect is the shorters target.

[wad collector] 16/6/2010 12:40

So you might as well trade with them.Use the volatility to make some cash yourselves if you are that confident of the predictability.
Personally I don't want to get back in unless they dip below £7 again.

[dasv] 16/6/2010 12:33

steeplejack - and next month some big house will issue a buy note and back up it goes.

[eipgam] 15/6/2010 17:28

I hope you two are right... but the threat of a cash call is a bit ominous or perhaps, malicious.

Enami, ADVFN must have read your post...

Satellite company Inmarsat was the worst performing blue-chip, and it is not because the company has launched its new global handheld satellite phone, the IsatPhone Pro, which the company said will retail for "as little as" $500. Bank of America Merrill Lynch is the reason for the share price weakness; the broker has cut its rating on the shares from "neutral" to "underperform", saying the company will have to spend piles of cash to replace its older satellites.

[dasv] 15/6/2010 15:46

steeplejack - so true.

with autonomy it's been like clockwork. Sell note comes out pre-results with concerns about cash conversion or whatever. share price tanks. instis buy in, AU goes up 20-30%. Last time it tanked to about £12 and now AU. is pushing on £20.

[steeplejack] 15/6/2010 15:27

Good performer so analysts come out with top slice recommendations.JPMorgan had a go at ARM recently around 50 lower down and then they had a go at Autonomy about a year ago ,getting them down to 12 quid.Bit of commission for the boys in thin markets. "We are concerned.......".....about your bloody bonuses matey!

[enami] 15/6/2010 09:43

Just 3p short of my target yesterday but I see now why such a big drop today

BROKER CALL: Inmarsat downgraded by Bank of America Merrill Lynch
15 June, 2010 07:22:52 AM

Broker goes to underperfrom from neutral, while hacking its price target to 725p a share from 800p. Analyst Wilton Fry adds: 'We are concerned by a number of operational issues, though our primary concern is that Inmarsat could announce a large fleet expansion in order drive top line revenue and fight off competition from the Fixed Satellite Service (FSS) operators. Instead of the long awaited "cashflow harvest" investors had been expecting,
shareholders could be hit for up to $1bn to fund new Ka-band satellites.'


On the other hand RNS - INMARSAT LAUNCHES ISATPHONE PRO

[enami] 11/6/2010 11:00

Just matching the previous ATH.
If it can get past 834 then target 898-908.

[eipgam] 09/6/2010 16:13

well, that's eight quid.... not far till £11?

[dasv] 04/6/2010 10:42

950, 1100 are my targets on the daily P&F chart.

However I sold out of ISAT and many other stocks during the flash crash.

[eipgam] 04/6/2010 10:02

I wonder if £8 is going to prove to be resistance? Enami, still looking for 821?

[enami] 03/6/2010 16:18

Not so sure about the CGT reason, any changes to the tax laws will only come into effect at the start of the 2011-2012 tax year I think.

Maybe we will take another crack at 800+ tomorrow.

[eipgam] 30/5/2010 16:53

Article in the S Times today about the reason for the share sells... avoiding the aniticpated CGT rise, it claims. Noting that directors also sold large quantities as soon as the lock in had lapsed a few years ago.

[tradermanic1] 26/5/2010 21:18

Is Mike Crowsoft still in the nick?

[phillis] 26/5/2010 20:29

?? what does this mean

[dasv] 24/5/2010 14:03

Yep CGT plus wider market.

FWIW I sold out of ISAT in two tranches. I no longer have a position here or for that matter in any stocks (I do have a few small caps left)

[wad collector] 24/5/2010 09:57

Some more rather significant looking director sales that the RNS sneaked in aftermarket closure on Friday:


Inmarsat plc (LSE: ISAT) 21 May 2010:

The Company has been advised of the following disposal of shares on 21 May 2010
for shares held beneficially by:
Alison Horrocks (PDMR): sold 300,000 at GBP7.516; retains 1,580

Eugene Jilg (PDMR): sold 500,000 at GBP7.438; retains 100,987

Debbie Jones (PDMR): sold 100,000 at GBP7.516; retains 104,229

Rick Medlock (Director) (spouse sale): sold 211,500 at GBP7.516; retains 248,163

Rupert Pearce (PDMR): sold 900,000 at GBP7.516; retains 264,604

Andrew Sukawaty (Director): sold 432,000 at GBP7.516; retains 390,534



Those look like a big clearout, over £20M, not just taking some profits.Possibly because of fears about CGT changes next month , but does look a bit worrying.

[wad collector] 20/5/2010 18:34

Could be time to come back on board here soon.If it dips below 700p, looks tempting.

[philanderer] 04/5/2010 19:40

FT Alphaville transcript this morning:


BE
Um .... let's follow the lead of the Far Right, and go for Inmarsat.

NH
through 800p this morning

Inmarsat plc (ISAT:LSE): Last: 800.00, up 36.5 (+4.78%), High: 819.00, Low: 778.50, Volume: 807.72k

NH
(sorry another major outage)

NH
now, we are putting the move down to more Harbinger rumours

NH
ie Deutsche Telekom now looking to invest in its 4G venture

NH
and if Harbinger can get the cash together

NH
and the neccesary regulatory approval

NH
they one day could be bid for Inmarsat

NH
and also note, they have the ex-boss of Orange fronting their telecom operations now

NH
if you missed the story

NH
it was in today's paper

NH


NH
Deutsche Telekom is considering boosting its faltering competitive position in the US by forming a partnership with a New York hedge fund that is planning a new mobile phone network offering fast web browsing speeds.

Deutsche Telekom's US mobile business is in preliminary discussions with Harbinger Capital, the hedge fund founded by Philip Falcone that owns radio spectrum suitable for a network based on fourth generation wireless technology. In March Harbinger unveiled plans to build a 4G network next year, and the infrastructure may cover the entire US population because it involves satellite technology.

Harbinger is not planning to provide services to consumers, but instead wants to strike wholesale deals with established mobile operators and potential new entrants in the telecoms industry.

NH
that should give you the general gist of it

BE
Yup – that's the upshot.

BE
The argument, of course, is whether Harbinger can afford the 4G infrastructure as well as bidding for Isat.

BE
(No)

BE
So if they can get partners on board to pick up the cost then the takeover theory makes some plausible sense again.

BE
That's basically why we've seen the rally today I think.

BE
Got a bit of comment from Credit Suisse on Andrew Parker's story

NH
go ahead

BE
They're cautious

BE
In our view this potentially makes it more likely that Inmarsat can realise value from its US L-band spectrum. However, there are still many obstacles in the way of Harbinger building a 4G network that generates revenues from 2011 which include:

BE
• Harbinger, in our view, still needs to find a partner willing to fund the build out of the 4G network. Various press reports have suggested that SK Telecom and Qwest would be willing to help fund and build the 4G network. The article does not suggest that DT would be willing to fund or partfund the building of the network.

BE
• In our view, the removal of the satellite component (under current FCC rules any handsets used on Harbinger's 4G network must have a satellite component) would be necessary for mobile operators to be willing to pay for wholesaling network capacity Inmarsat could potentially receive up to $115m per year (around 9% of 2010E group revenues) if the 4G network ever generates revenues but until we see a FCC rule change or a commitment from a partner to fund the building a 4G network this remains an option value for Inmarsat and is not in either our numbers or our valuation.

BE
For DT we believe this is a small negative as it suggests DT remains committed to staying in the game in the US rather than selling out of the asset. DT has said in the past that one of its options is satellite but cited reservations over the band and the satellite component. If FCC rules change then maybe DT's reservations fade and it would could represent its cheapest 4G option, in our view.

NH
thanks for that

[eipgam] 04/5/2010 18:02

Satellite broadcaster Inmarsat was also flying high on rumours that a bid could be on its way from Harbinger, the New York based hedge fund that has a 28% stake in the company.

advfn