Idox Share Discussion Threads

[davidosh] 17/1/2013 11:04

Really good thanks Chester and best wishes to you for 2013. With the growth at Idox it is best to be patient and just let the management deliver to their plan. They have done two Mello presentations for us and our guys have every confidence in the future for the company.

[chester] 17/1/2013 10:04

How are you David ? It's been a while since we chatted.

[aishah] 17/1/2013 09:59

Wonder if some corporate action is in the offing. Valuation looking a bit stretched now.

[davidosh] 17/1/2013 09:58

I still say the end game will be a bid from a Serco, Capita or other big cap who see Idox as the dominant player in the space they want to be in and will pay up not just on current earnings but on a multiple into the future due to the clear growth path here.

[chester] 17/1/2013 09:41

M1das - Couldn't agree more, this is I think my most profitable share ever, and mine too is locked away in my SIPP.

[m1das_touch] 16/1/2013 08:55

I keep wondering if and when there will be a reversal, but this is such a great company and management never seem to disappoint so it's obviously loved by private investors and institutional investors alike.

I have a reasonably tight stop in place just to ensure that I lock in long-term profits in case there is a sudden change in fortunes for Idox, but it never gets hit so I just keep moving the stop up with the share-price!

Officially my best and most profitable investment ever, and my SIPP is looking very healthy on the back of it!

[rathlindri] 15/1/2013 14:24

nice rise today, what a great share this is turning out to be

[bluebelle] 14/1/2013 17:13

rathlindri
Not necessarily : 27% up, 34% down 39% unchanged : not a dramatic reversal, today at any rate.

[bigbigdave] 14/1/2013 16:47

For once the closing auction didn't spoil the day which makes a nice change.

[rathlindri] 14/1/2013 15:23

this is the only share in my portfolio that is blue today...back to stockmarket reality this week perhaps?!

[lupins2] 10/1/2013 21:38

.Anyone know anything about those huge trades today.

[davidosh] 10/1/2013 09:43

Phillis...Absolutely no problem. I speak to quite a few fund managers and whilst they often have to act differently to PIs, I do think their thoughts on companies where we all have serious holdings and mutual interests are useful. I also think there should be better relationships and ownership mindsets developed between large fund holders and significant Private investors of sub £100m market cap companies but that is a different subject.

[phillis] 09/1/2013 17:49

yes jamie
Apologies davidosh

[rathlindri] 09/1/2013 13:22

Thanks for posting this davidosh, useful background and an interesting and informative piece of info. I particularly like:

"The share price has risen sharply over the last year, but the rating remains modest (around 10 times forward forecast earnings, with a 2.75% dividend yield). Having reached a market capitalisation of around £100m this company should start to attract a wider audience and remains little-known beyond dedicated small cap institutional investors. The quality of its Local Authority business has been improving with the move towards strategic partnerships. The new business area in engineering document management will represent 30% of revenues this year, and there is plenty of scope to see margins on this side of the business rise."

[chester] 09/1/2013 13:16

Yes, cheers davidosh.

[jamielein] 09/1/2013 13:10

Thanks davidosh, that kind of information is definitely worth posting.

I think Phillis may have missed the point and possibly thought this was about Amati rather than idox?

[davidosh] 09/1/2013 12:54

Amati are one of the larger shareholders and early backers of the company so just thought their current thinking was worth flagging but I appreciate some only want the latest level 2 trades highlighted !!!

[phillis] 09/1/2013 11:24

what has Amati got to do with Idox

DOH!

[davidosh] 09/1/2013 11:21

This is from six months ago but interesting to see how a fund manager thinks...

2. IDOX

At Amati, we backed this business originally in 2007 when it raised money for a classic turnaround strategy. It had found itself in trouble following a poor and unrelated acquisition. When Martin Brooks became chairman he identified a viable strategy for the group, which involved developing their position as a software solution provider to Local Authorities, focused on land, property and town planning document management and workflow software. They raised money to buy CAPS Solutions, which was being auctioned and for which they paid a full price. This, however, meant they now had 70% of UK Local Authorities as customers, giving them a strong competitive position. From here the business has developed a long way, and the company has been a clever acquirer of businesses bringing extra products and additional customer bases. The resilience of the business was shown during the 2009 downturn, when investors feared that Local Authority spending on software would be drastically cut, and the shares fell heavily. However, because IDOX software provides efficiency gains, and therefore cuts costs, revenues have made steady progress over the last few years and IDOX repositioned itself by forming advisory relationships with Local Authorities, becoming more than just a software vendor. They also became market leader in Land, Building Control and Property software solutions for this market (with around 65% market share), and have market share growing in other Local Authority departments.

In December 2010 they entered a new market, private sector engineering document management and workflow software, through the acquisition of McLaren from receivership. This has turned out be a compelling deal, costing £2m including debt and coming with tax losses. McLaren had failed during the credit crunch when its potential customers held off ordering because the company's balance sheet was too weak. IDOX has rapidly turned this around, seeing sales growth here of 27% lastyear, and this business unit delivered £1m of EBITDA in the 10 10 Amati VCT plc Annual Report & Financial Statements 2012 months to October 2011. In November last year IDOX bought CT Space, which is a larger competitor of McLaren's, which will give critical mass in this market, as well as extending their product range and customer base.

The share price has risen sharply over the last year, but the rating remains modest (around 10 times forward forecast earnings, with a 2.75% dividend yield). Having reached a market capitalisation of around £100m this company should start to attract a wider audience and remains little-known beyond dedicated small cap institutional investors. The quality of its Local Authority business has been improving with the move towards strategic partnerships. The new business area in engineering document management will represent 30% of revenues this year, and there is plenty of scope to see margins on this side of the business rise.


If we are wrong here, it could be because the buy-and-build model on the engineering side does not work out, or because the dynamic in the Local Authority business changes for the worse or even just that investors fear it will change for the worse.

[bluebelle] 08/1/2013 15:08

Final Dividend Payment Date
Published 8 January 2013
Following the announcement of a proposed final dividend of 0.40 pence per share (the "Final Dividend") on 12 December 2012, the Final Dividend, if approved by shareholders, will be paid on 26 April 2013 to shareholders on the Company's register at close of business on 19 April 2013. Shares will go ex-dividend on 17 April 2013.
Enquiries

[blippy2] 08/1/2013 11:57

Investor sentiment seems average-bullish at the moment, according to the sentiment survey:

bulls: 38.7%, neutral 25.1%, bearish 36.2%

Sentiment is a very tricky thing, of course, because what could be "risk on" one month can be "risk off" next month.

We've been seeing some good progress on turnaround companies. LAM (Lamprell) is up a stonking 22% since the beginning of the year, for example. I own a slice of these badboys.

On a little blog that I run, I argued that small-cap growth offered good value. T1X (techMARK Focus) was up only 2% last year, trailing the Footsie, and massively underperforming the FTSE 250.

My basis for expressing the attractiveness is this: take a selection of small-cap growth OEICS and work out the PE of their (top 10) holdings. Compare that to the market. When I performed the calc last month I got a ratio of 1.1 - although it goes higher depending on in you use means or medians, or what fund you use for comparison, etc.. Peter Lynch suggested that when the ratio goes below 1.2, you're in the "very attractive" range. This is where we are right now. If the ratio goes above 2, then we'd be in the "highly overpriced" range. We are way short of that at the moment.

[m1das_touch] 08/1/2013 11:21

Is it just me, or does anyone else get the feeling that we're moving into something of a bull run with small-cap shares? (especially AIM). So many of my small-cap holdings are moving north right now, some significantly and including a number of the more speculative ones and with reasonable volume too. I'm wondering if it's simply people buying in off the back of new year tips, or if there's a genuine change of sentiment to risk on, which is impacting smaller companies.

Any thoughts?

[pj 1] 08/1/2013 11:18

O/T
Good shares recommendations can come from many sources. TW has survived long enough to earn some credibility. Being somewhat something of a 50 year old Dinosaur I was very sceptical about twitter. After registering late 2012 I have picked up 3 shares now that I have invested in from there. As always there are the usual idiots, but some extremely positive, successful and helpful investors, some who post here. As always DYOR.