I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[greatfull dead] 01/2/2022 09:41

Ed,

I am in full agreement regards Serenity.

ATB,
GD

[edgein] 01/2/2022 09:23

Goodday,

Good summary. Also worth pointing out that the company's focus in Canada is moving towards oil production at both the Clearwater and Simonette assets. So it will be replacing declining gas production with increasing oil production. We should hopefully get an ops update from the company as we got one Feb last year too. I would expect we'll exit the year on at least 50/50 oil to gas production after they drill those 12+ net wells this year.

I was looking at the information on Liberator West, Minos High and Serenity just yesterday again. Yeah their upside is compelling at $90 Brent. All three of those could have thicker net sands as you move west, Minos high in particular and with the multi Darcy permeability expected flow rates could be spectacular. While the Serenity appraisal looks like the lowest hanging fruit for their assets, Minos high could be a game changer well too.

What a strong position I3E find themselves in, about to go into an intensive drill campaign focused on oil in Canada giving cash flow estimates of $244m for 22/23, with Serenity and Minos high sitting there begging to be drilled at the current oil prices. Exciting times.

Regards,
Ed.

[goodday1] 01/2/2022 08:19

Thanks for this man workings.I calling 15p to be gone by this Friday at the latest.Gl alltonynorstrom1 on LSE & his famous spreadsheet.hTTps://1drv.ms/b/s!AoSqKfvcR4IMgYMR4K-CCauUGys42QJust a couple of notes to go along with the spreadsheet below:1) Production is based on 20460 boepd - this is approximately what i3e are guiding to ye 2022 - I thinks its likely that i3e will top this based on lower than expected declines and better drilling results.2) Dividend based on 25% of FCF and in the range of 1.14p to 1.34p. So a nice jump up but not the double or triple that one person on here mentioned. Again I think it could be higher than this based on higher production volumes and also i3e paying out slightly higher than 25% . The dividend could double if they paid out 40% of FCF which has been mentioned previously in one of their presentation or the readmission document but as I think they want to maintain a progressive dividend - my guess is that they stick at something around 25% and pay any excess FCF in the form of a special dividend or buyback.3) Note also that oil is less than 1/4 of volumes but about half of revenues. Thats why Serenity could be such a monster if it were to come on stream at 30,000 bopd. If you convert the 20460 boepd into the equivalent oil - it comes out to 8939 bopd. If we kept half of serenity at 15,000 bopd for example - that triples current revenues!

[pretax2] 31/1/2022 21:15

So is Canada.

[goodday1] 31/1/2022 16:11

We are on the move.Gl all

[goodday1] 31/1/2022 14:16

We might get it in the next 15 minutes or whenever it is ready.One thing is for sure, it will much much much better than the overpriced one.hTTps://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/90-Oil-Is-Only-The-Beginning.htmlThe current move in oil prices is largely attributed to geopolitical risk.The next major move in oil could be triggered if inventories fall to critical levels.Wall Street's consensus seems to be that Brent will reach $100 by the summer.Gl all

[squareloss] 31/1/2022 13:28

Q2 2021 update was 29 July, Q3 was 26 October so I reckon we should see Q4 any time now...

[doughcyclone] 31/1/2022 13:14

When can we expect q4?

[edgein] 31/1/2022 11:15

Pretax,

Yeah even with CAPEX of around $48m, a dividend minimum of £11.6m, they're still estimated to have $75m in cash at the end of the year (at slightly lower average oil and gas prices). To put that into perspective that's more than they paid for Cenovus. So all of their recent acquisitions paying back big time. They're also being very conservative on the modest gearing the company has. No real reason to raise debt when free cash flow is enormous. Then we have the potential to add 10-20k bopd per Serenity well (gross). Could be a very interesting 2022, and its a lot more than Ukraine/Russia driving the current oil and gas prices.

Regards,
Ed.

[pretax2] 31/1/2022 10:53

I3E is just making a ton of money. Forget cash cow, they're a cash Behemoth.
WTI = $87.6 usd/bbl Gas - $4.93 usd/MMBtu
A stable dividend paying company with years of drilling in their portfolio and the chance of huge uplift from the North Sea.

Shareprice has to rise don't it?

[1choip] 31/1/2022 08:34

Operational update is going big

[edgein] 31/1/2022 08:25

Yeah fellas, 30p+ very likely if they don't make any progress towards drilling Serenity. If they complete the farmout of that one then sky's the limit. At 19000boepd and circa 135mmboe there's not much cheaper around AIM O&G than these.

Regards,
Ed.

[goodday1] 31/1/2022 08:16

14.15p to buy a small amount.Looking ready...Onward & upward.I hear the RNs machine has been fixed as we post.PoO & Gas looking good Gl all

[fandagle] 31/1/2022 07:52

How did the promised end of month RNS work out? Asking for a friend, doesn't look good does it...

[hoper1] 29/1/2022 19:13

Sorry, I was thinking short term in the next couple of weeks. After that I'm with you that 30p is not unrealistic before year end.

[goodday1] 29/1/2022 15:51

Picture of this BB troll leaked!HahahahTTps://twitter.com/thonjacobite/status/1487152342525005826?s=21

[goodday1] 29/1/2022 14:54

RIP troll & his sidekicks Lol

[marvelman] 29/1/2022 07:48

Thought I had already tazered you along with the other half of your split personality... Fandangle...anyway here we go...

Tazerface29 Jan '22 - 07:26 - 22464 of 22464 (Filtered)

....zap

[fandagle] 28/1/2022 19:57

30p! Pass me another anti-laughing tablet! Look at the amount of shares floating around! Plus two 1p dividends that would not pay Gooddays Guinness bill in Dubs! It’s utterly impossible! So many thick people in here! Like showing a Labrador how to play poker! Wool woof! 30p lol

[tournesol] 28/1/2022 18:59

Hoperif your ambition is for 16p then you need to change your name!I'm hoping for 30p plus within 12 months.

[36redhill] 28/1/2022 18:31

Is this going to pop??

[the patriotic irishman] 28/1/2022 17:09

UT 13.95p with a nice chunky after hours 100,000 buy at the full ask of 14.0p 👌


I suspect that filtered Fanny (with the chamois) will be having another wet weekend with her head stuck in the bucket searching for her missing 9p 🤦‍a94;️


ok ok I know shouldn't laugh but sometimes I just can't help myself


9p eh 🤣 🤣 🤣


Ciao x

[the patriotic irishman] 28/1/2022 16:14

its not the size that matters

its the fact they are nearly all AT buys with one after the other and in very quick succession 😉


its not often you see so many AT's especially on the buy side late on a Friday and heading into the weekend (more often than not its the other way round) but perhaps with a quarterly update expected any day now it might just tie in with that ?


anyway always nice to see a strong finish on a Friday 👌


roll on next week and hopefully a nice ops update !!

[hoper1] 28/1/2022 16:00

Yep, better than a stream of tiny sells I suppose! Keep smiling...