I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[captain james t kirk] 06/2/2022 13:49

We are currently in orbit, not having sent down a landing party yet but I'd have thought that within reason these forums are also about sharing ideas for folk to research, particularly out of market hours.
Everyone to their own.

[muddyfox0151] 06/2/2022 13:39

Jackknife is a imbecile for is own gain ! Anyhow this is a I3e chat forum .....

[haideralifool] 06/2/2022 13:31

King S an off topic question since you are in miners. A relative of mine has a stake in eua. From years ago I know a poster called Jaknife who has an excellent record spotting scams. He reckons eua is a scam and from what I have seen it looks like one. Do you have a view?

[sunbed44] 06/2/2022 13:29

That is a top dollar post KS and I concur with all your O&G commentary. I took huge hit on adv but luckily have made it back and more since.

[king suarez] 06/2/2022 13:03

@moonshot3,

In the O&G sector my biggest position is TXP (in from 13p a couple of years ago) and 2nd biggest position is in JSE. I have similar sized positions to I3E in SQZ and SAVE. A smaller position in PTAL (due to geopolitical risk, but fundamentals fantastic) and IOG (gas coming on stream soon) and recently bought into ZPHR, unfortunately just before the placing, so timing a little less fortunate there!

Other O&G stocks on my radar, but not currently invested in (can't be in them all?) are AXL, SOUC and MATD that I like the look of. I had a big loss from ADV recently and am learning to take 'independent' risk reports with a greater pinch of salt!

Outside O&G I am in a few gold miners; ALTN (huge resource, terrible PR), SRB, AAZ, MTL (small cap due to high debt - so big leverage on gold price) and WSBN (explorer in the same region as GGP - hoping to replicate some of that success).

I also hold a couple of Copper stocks; RMM (recovery play in Canada) and ATYM (v well run larger co in Spain with decent dividend and expansion potential).

In the pharma sector; AVCT (due to early promise with affimer technology - early human trials proving the concept that a delivery system can target cancer cells predominantly thus increasing the efficacy of existing cancer drugs via reduction in toxicity - could be v lucrative) and ORPH (growing market of human challenge studies for vaccines etc - only co. I know doing this?).

I also hold some speculative positions in a few crypto miners, a small position in LIT (litigation finance company), STCM (high div yield cement producer), MBO (e-commerce co in Malaysia) and MOS (data streaming and igaming markets).

Happy to elaborate via PM if you wanted to share ideas, to keep from plugging up this thread with OT?

[moonshot3] 06/2/2022 12:23

Makes sense to me, KS. For a recent entrant into I3E you certainly got your 11p entry price right. Out of interest, if you are able to share, what other stocks do you hold? Do not worry if you want to keep it confidential. Thank you.

[highly geared] 06/2/2022 12:15

So, they could double production by CAPEX program investment in the Canadian assets ( out of cash flow) … to 40,000 BOEPD. It just gets better and better..

[king suarez] 06/2/2022 09:45

Neo26,

I don't think I've missed the point?

Moonshot asked whether, in light of any commodity price retrace, would a sustainable 5% income yield here be sufficient to support a 20p share price here. I said I didn't think it would, due to the level of inflation we have currently.

I then went on to explain that it is a good job that the current yield is only a fraction of free cash flow (i.e scope to increase it) and that there is also plenty of scope to increase production from existing assets.

I am an investor here and knew the opportunity to buy in cheap had a limited time period due to the latest placing overhang, so glad I got my timing right buying in around 11p.

I think this is a great stock, but the rest of my post(s) were about what might happen to the energy markets in general. It is likely short term if energy prices dropped significantly that so would the share price here, despite the fundamentals and newsflow - simply because markets are full of short term traders/thinkers - not all who have bought in recently are going to hold long-term, they will be traders riding the wave - we've already seen lots of ups and downs on this rise so far?

Anyway, on current production and reserves I think this should be around 30p, personally. A lot more if anything positive comes of the N Sea assets..

[haideralifool] 06/2/2022 08:45

Hi tn1, thanks for the link to the YouTuber. Very useful/brave level of transparency about his method.

[tonynorstrom1] 06/2/2022 08:27

Divmad,

There using some of that NOI difference to fund the $47m Capital Program.

I've posted my spread sheet that uses the latest numbers we have, factors in the increased production from the Capital Program and estimates what the dividend would be twelve months from now i.e. what the payouts might look like in 2023. It was about 0.11 to 0.13 per share in 2023 - no where near the numbers being spoken about here.

You need to bear in mind that dividends paid now are usually based on the previous 6 months or 12 months earning and not the next 12 months.

[tonynorstrom1] 06/2/2022 08:20

I listen to anyone that has an interesting viewpoint - he seems to know the Cenovus & Gain Assets 1st hand i.e. he alludes to the fact he has worked in the Oil Patch. He's also clearly quite fluent with the numbers.

Before you criticize anyone particulary someone with an interesting and educated viewpoint - I would suggest you take a look in the mirror and go re-read your past posts.

[1choip] 06/2/2022 07:32

u listening to youtuber? look at number of subscribers?

[divmad] 06/2/2022 07:29

One thing I don't understand about the latest Canadian trading update. If the 2022/2023 combined NOI difference between $65 and $80 poo is $60mn, why can't we start to price in a dividend raise from £11mn stated, to somewhere near to £17mn this year? That is, a minimum extra Divi of 30% of the incremental free cash flow after capex, on $30mn extra NOI this year, and again next year.

[tonynorstrom1] 06/2/2022 07:02

Interesting Pod Cast Unearthed by Cenkman on the LSE board



Click to about 1.01 hrs to get to i3e - any one recognize one of the spread sheets he pulls up.

Interesting comments on the Cenovus Assets & Gain Assests which he appears to know first hand from working in the Oil Patch. As mentioned by Cenkman below - he thinks that with relatively low capital - the Cenovus Assets couple double production. I guess I should have added this to my list of expected news in the update - so far we have heard relatively little about these assets direct from i3e - now they've had time to look at them, im sure we will get to hear some development plans in the Q4 update.

[1choip] 06/2/2022 06:56

shares buy back mentioned?

[tazerface] 06/2/2022 06:17

This rabid dog is going under. The only survival option is mass dilution. Significant placing at massive discount with millions of warrants & options. Shareholder wipeout

[tonynorstrom1] 06/2/2022 05:45

Moonshot,

Dont forget that i3e have two ways to maintain or increase dividends - price of oil and also growing production. This second option is not really open to Majors like BP or Shell. So if the price of Oil retraces a little but they add production - they still have the ability to raise dividends. North and South Simonette have the potential to add 25,000 boepd to production and i3e have already stated there aim to significantly raise production.

Also they are net cash positive so in a down turn they could also slash Capex and support the dividend - so i3e are in the enviable position of being able to support the dividend and share price more than most in "all weathers" except perhaps a hurricane !

[neo26] 05/2/2022 23:02

King SuerezI think you missing the point they producing 19kboepd currently, drilling 17 wells in 2022 and 50% of them will be drilled in q1 2022.Plenty of newsflow to come in space of 7 weeks.I3e have been cheap due to an overhang, now looking to charge on.

[king suarez] 05/2/2022 21:58

We're all guessing really, but there appears to be a supply deficit for now. It makes sense as years of lower pricing has lead to underdevelopment and thus a supply imbalance as we have now.

In my mind I have two competing ideas - one that there is a structural deficit in energy which could take a few years to make up and require sustained higher prices to make the more marginal developments attractive enough to bring on stream.

The other, is that a period of sustained high prices could exacerbate/speed up a global debt crisis and economic crash that would lead to falling demand and thus falling prices (like we saw in 2020).

Take your pick?!

I haven't found a way to resolve these 2 arguments in my mind yet, except to watch like a hawk and keep fingers crossed that the O&G stocks in my pf reach a value worth taking some profits off the table before the time comes..

The sector is cyclical, but how long is the cycle this time around?

[moonshot3] 05/2/2022 21:18

Thanks KS. I see that there are also some interesting comments as well on the JSE board on possible future direction of oil price. General consensus seems to be higher!

[king suarez] 05/2/2022 20:46

In my opinion, a 5% yield alone would not be sufficient as an investment for me, if no prospect of a rising yield or capital growth - inflation is running higher than that!

Fortunately, the yield is only a fraction of free cash flow being generated and there is a great deal of potential production and cash flow growth, even if commodity prices were to decline a bit.

Short term though, a knock to commodity prices would likely see a pull-back here, even if still way below fair value, simply because 'that's what happens innit?'

[moonshot3] 05/2/2022 20:41

Gr8 advance last week. Congratulations to all LTH's! Apart from a general re-rating, I would think that the increase was pushed on by the sharply rising oil and gas prices. Not wishing to be a party pooper, but do you think that the I3E share price would hold its position on declining commodity prices. My view is that if a future dividend of 1p is payable it should hold at about 20p (5% yield). Any views?

[neo26] 05/2/2022 18:53

SpangleRare isnt it, who pays monthly?

[goodday1] 05/2/2022 18:49

I have done much better, mate.Enjoy.hTTps://twitter.com/mario4president/status/1489907787564040202?s=21Hahaha Gl all

[spangle93] 05/2/2022 18:18

to my knowledge, AIM-listed JSE, WEN and SQZ pay dividends, while PTAL has announced that it will start in 2022.