I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[greatfull dead] 18/8/2021 08:52

Courtesy of another. hxxps://i3.energy/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/210817_I3E-Upscaling.pdf

North Sea: Serenity update
Marketing of Serenity also continues, with the company recently announcing that it has agreed indicative farm out terms in principle with a prospective partner. The partner is in the process of confirming funding commitments before the deal can be finalized. We expect such an event to provide a major boost for the stock for a number of reasons. The shift in focus to Canada combined with last year’s weakness in oil prices and industry appetite for exploration
and appraisal has resulted in the market attributing very little value, if any, to the Serenity discovery. Industry validation should address this, as well as provide a market valuation for the asset. Furthermore, it would add a major catalyst for the stock, in the form of a high impact, near term appraisal drilling.
Financial forecasts and valuation We have updated our numbers to reflect the Cenovus transaction, the recent operational production gains, and the US$54m equity placing. We have also updated our near term Brent oil and Henry Hub gas price forecasts in line with the current strip, maintaining our long term US$60/bbl and US$3.0/mcf forecast. As before, we have assumed a small amount of development drilling each year to monetise the large 2P reserve base and offset natural decline across the portfolio.
Next year, the first full year to benefit from the Cenovus acquisition, we estimate average production of c.17,500 boepd (47% liquids), leading to gross revenues of c.US$170m. This flows through on margins of 49% to EBITDAX of US$83m – placing the company on an FY22 EV/EBITDA multiple under 2x. Note that at this stage we have given no benefit from operational synergies with respect to the acquired assets, which i3 internally estimates could boost net cash flow from the acquired assets by as much as 20%, or c.US$6m. Adding these savings into our forecast implies c.7% upside to our FY22 EBITDAX estimate.
After accounting for around US$15m of FY22 capex spend (including new wells and asset retirement obligation), we estimate a FY22 cash dividend payout of US$14m – equivalent to 1.28¢/shr and a running dividend yield of 8.4% at today’s prices. This still leaves an estimated US$54m of cash building on the balance sheet, which can be used for either organic or inorganic growth. Our full financial forecasts are shown on page 6.
We have also integrated the new assets into our DCF model, and factored in the dilutive effect of the recent equity placing. The result is an upgraded risked Core NAV of 21.2p/shr, including PDP NAV of 10.4p/shr. Our Total NAV of 26.5p/shr also includes 5.3p/shr of value for Serenity, although this is based on a very conservative 12.5% chance of commercial success, which factors in future dilution risk in funding the work programme. Unrisked, we estimate Serenity could be worth as much as 43p/shr, and progress with the ongoing farm out programme, including confirmation of farm out terms, could see significant upgrade to our valuation

GLA,
GD

[edgein] 18/8/2021 08:51

Dexter is this your favourite song by George Formby:

You've heard about my capers when windows I've to clean
Now I'd like to tell you of a few more things I've seen

I've seen Miss Thompson in her flat take off her shoes, her coat and hat
I've seen her take off more than that, when I'm cleaning windows
At a ladies school I call, and one girl flirts with me and all
But I'm insured in case I fall, when I'm cleaning windows

All day up this ladder I'm as busy as can be
It's not my fault I see a lot of things I shouldn't see

To overcrowded flats I've been, sixteen in one bed I've seen
With a lodger tucked up in between, when I'm cleaning windows
Old soldiers never die they say, now I don't want to pass away
I kick the bucket every day when I'm cleaning windows
Through working at such dizzy heights, I dream about my job at night
I polish my wife's thingummy tights, and think I'm cleaning windows

All day up this ladder I'm as busy as can be
It's not my fault I see a lot of things I shouldn't see

The newlyweds at number six, somehow the curtains they can't fix
They play some lovely parlor tricks, when I'm cleaning windows
Now lots of girls I've had to jilt, for they admire the way I'm built
It's a good job I don't wear a kilt, when I'm cleaning windows
At the coronation I'll commence to work where crowds are very dense
And let me stand for eighteen pence, instead of cleaning windows

And all day up this ladder I'm as busy as can be
It's not my fault I see a lot of things I shouldn't see
At eight o'clock a girl she wakes, at five past eight a bath she takes
At ten past eight (hm) my ladder breaks, when I'm cleaning windows.

P.S. Its probably against health and saftey rules to post on ADVFN while up a ladder.

Regards,
Ed.

[fandagle] 18/8/2021 08:42

So many cut'n'paste experts on here, yet the share price is still languishing at 11p, must be frustrating being wrong all the time, all that Bluster and absolutely no substance... this wont see 16p never mind 25p this year, its a shame but you guys will have to work another 10 years to make up your losses form your SIPP....

[goodday1] 18/8/2021 08:35

That is what troll depends on.Starve'em of Oxygen & give'em filtered coffee only.LolIn more important news.As seen on LSERE: Updated Tennyson Report Out --target increased to 25pToday 08:11I really like these paragraphs,"Next steps Looking ahead, we expect i3 to focus on a combination of M&A and organic growth opportunities as it looks to further expand its production base. With some 130 mmbbls of certified 2P reserves refinancing options will be available to i3, should it wish to restructure its £22m 2019 Loan Note facility. On our numbers, we estimate a current net debt/EBITDA multiple of under 0.5x (and falling sharply), implying a potential to draw additional debt to finance new acquisitions, thereby reducing, or eliminating the requirement to raise additional equity. Meanwhile i3 has plenty of opportunities to continue to grow production organically. As mentioned above, the acquired assets have almost 80 mmbbls of 2P reserves, including over 50 mmbbls undeveloped/unproducing, with c.140 drilling locations and c.80 well reactivations already worked up. Meanwhile the existing portfolio includes a further c.60 mmbbls of 2P reserves, of which c.23 mmbbls is currently not in production. These reserves currently not in production include modest, easy wins, sufficient to stave off natural decline across the portfolio (such as the reactivations and small developments which have been i3's focus since the start of the year), as well as major new development opportunities, such as the South Simonette field. "Honestly, how can one just not be impressed, I'd be happy to listen to anyone that thinks they can argue a better oil company case than i3 at this time, I think they will have a very hard time of it - What a remarkable turnaround, truly impressive.

[muddyfox0151] 18/8/2021 08:19

Agreed but sometimes one can't refrain!

[goodday1] 18/8/2021 08:07

Agreed, there is no value whatsoever in his drivel.You hit the nail on the head with your suggestions for the way forward.Gl all

[d1nga] 18/8/2021 07:55

You lot make the mistake of commenting on the scums posts, just use the filter and ignore. It really is that simple 👍

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 19:12

ALL the jive talk yet we are at the list price, think the bus has left for the Asylum and you lot should be on it............

[36redhill] 17/8/2021 18:45

Mate you really should seek mental health help. I'm not joking, you have real issues.

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 18:02

All this good news(churned old data TBH) and yet the share price remains at the list price, Clearly I3E are being HELD TO Ransom by the big boys with respect to Serenity, so brace yourself for a lowball take it or leave it offer. It will bounce around here for weeks, or until the BOD start their usual shenanigans we will hit 9p. As for trading, I retired many years ago due to some shrewd investments, the rest is just fun......Far too many on here have their SIPP invested in this Dog, they must be cacking it, I know I would be........

[goodday1] 17/8/2021 16:32

Mate, that made me giggle.Thank you very much & don't feed the troll.Only filtered coffee for the troll.Brilliant post & I have not seen what you are replying to.Gl all

[jungmana] 17/8/2021 15:26

Good to see us strong and blue when is red across the market today

[highly geared] 17/8/2021 15:13

Let’s also see if the Hurricane season and Geo political issues removes supply and we see WTI/Brent heading towards $100 again...

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 14:37

The share price will be strangled by the the likes of Bybrook and the likes who bought in at 5p. They will sell on rises at the expense of PI's, this share is only useful if your a day trader or fund manager. The sentiment remains very low here no matter what the Rampers like TonyBalloney say, its destined to be a share that remains in purgatory for the sins of Majid and the rest of the vagabonds..........

[goodday1] 17/8/2021 12:34

https://twitter.com/i3energy/status/1427557589630341126?s=2110K BoOhttps://twitter.com/i3energy/status/1427557362341089294?s=21Very Good

[4053777] 17/8/2021 11:09

Thick wit ! It's pointless.. whatever here am in with good research...)

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 10:17

405377 - who are you responding to ?

Oh my sides! these Eeejits dont even know who they are? what they are talking about? Who they are talking to? Matron! Matron! some of the patients have taken over the Asylum....

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 10:13

Tournashole will be right at home here with all the other Superampers, the BB has descended from a few regular informative posters to a Hive of BAMS who cannot think for themselves.......

[goodday1] 17/8/2021 10:11

I am selling 20K pounds from fund & share account & buying 20K into ISA account.I just don't want to lose money due to the spread.

[tonynorstrom1] 17/8/2021 10:07

405377 - who are you responding to ?

[yasx] 17/8/2021 09:59

At 50p Tournesol was advocating the merits of Hurricane to potential investors. He eventually bailed upon realising he had soaked up the guff from Trice but only after sustaining a substantial loss. At 1p Hurricane had a better risk/reward profile but Tournesol insisted it was set to go bust within weeks once the Court had approved a restructuring. The restructuring was not approved and the shares quadrupled a week later.

Moral of the story: doing the exact opposite of Tournseol generally reaps rewards.

I am long i3e and very bullish on the oil sector generally.

[tournesol] 17/8/2021 09:59

Gooday1

The problem is that you can't know that there is a range except in hindsight. You certainly can't know that a historic range will continue.

One of my biggest mistakes in investing has been to sell winners much too soon. It might be tempting to bank a quick 20% but sometimes that comes at the cost of a slow 500%. Attempts to trade a perceived range miss out when there is a long up-trend.

[goodday1] 17/8/2021 09:59

Theory & reality is a completely different thing.HahahaOnce the Sp plummeted & I was a winner yet on another occasion I missed a 37 per cent spike during the bed ISA.Lol