I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tournesol] 17/8/2021 09:55

The theory is to ...sell at the top of the range & buy at the bottom of the range.

Aaaah!

Now I see where I've been going wrong all these years.

[4053777] 17/8/2021 09:28

Doubtful your invested here ?

[4053777] 17/8/2021 09:19

So you are just plain stupid just like me with no name ! Lol

[tonynorstrom1] 17/8/2021 09:15

the abbot - I agree - i3e has to re-rate particularly if they continue as they are. If it doesn't move, then i3e will have over a 10% dividend yield (and growing) in the coming months covered x3 by FCF. That wont happen - the share price has to go up-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Fandangly - check out the 6 months performance (up over 75%). Its likely to be another 100% from here within another 6 months. How is that bad ? I don't know whats wrong with you - just plain stupid I guess!

[goodday1] 17/8/2021 09:13

I am due to move money into ISA from the fund & share account.The theory is to sell or buy (I don't care which one 1st) as long as I sell at the top of the range & I buy at the bottom of the range.I am happy to do it over few days.This is the theory, let us see if I can pull it off.I had enough practice over the years.Anyone, I have more tips, please? The blocked ones need not bother!Lol

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 09:12

Lets face it nothing will move the share price here very much, its a traders & MM share, LTH holders will continue suffer until the end of eternity....

[kaos3] 17/8/2021 08:58

tony - thank you for the right FCF definition - I was thinking to my self - clever to define 30 % of the FCF divi - when one can "regulate" FCF almost as he pleases - I was wrong

[fandagle] 17/8/2021 08:54

Not going too well today...

[tonynorstrom1] 17/8/2021 08:54

Swanvesta,

Companies calculate FCF differently but aa a broad definition FCF is the money left for discretionary spending (includes dividends and Capex) once all the day to day expenses for running/maintaining the comapnay are covered. Since oil fields suffer natural declines, capex is required just to maintain production flat. Ive noticed some companies particularly Canadian companies therefore remove maintenance capex from cash flow in order to calculate FCF.

[fandagle] 16/8/2021 16:59

But but but Tony said 30p today, hardly worth the effort, the super Rampers must be ragin....lol

[uncleoswald] 16/8/2021 15:12

Share price performance baffling!!

[tonynorstrom1] 16/8/2021 13:32

updated report from WHI upping their fair value estimate to 29p


"i3 Energy Significantly Positive Operational and Financial Update i3 Energy has provided a broad and, we believe, materially positive operational and financial update. We believe the most significant new information is that i) the Cenovus acquisition is expected to be effective from 1 April 2021 (reducing the effective consideration) and ii) i3 Energy has increased its “net operating income” guidance to $US94.8m (from $75.3m) due principally to rising commodity prices and, we believe, better netbacks (higher cashflow) from the Cenovus acquisition. We increase our fair value estimate to 29.0p (from 27.2p) of which 22.5p (from 20.7p) is premised on i3 Energy’s Canadian operations. We retain our 5x EV/CF approach to value the company’s Canadian operations. We expect the company to grow its cashflow further over the course of 2021 and beyond from drilling more wells than we have assumed and through securing more value accretive acquisitions."

[goodday1] 16/8/2021 12:08

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-august-16-f3d4282/The link for below post

[goodday1] 16/8/2021 12:07

i3 Energy (I3E): Broadening Triangle AscentBroadening Triangles are traditionally seen in the most bullish of situations, and in this we have every more producing oiler i3 Energy matching fundamental strength to the technicals. The triangle in question has been in place since December when the stock was around 5p. The December resistance line projection has i3 heading towards 18p as soon as the end of next month. The base of the triangle runs at 10p currently, and as little as an end of day close above recent consolidation at 11.5p should trigger fresh positive momentum. The rising 50 and 200 day moving averages moving up in parallel should provide further impetus to the bull argument in coming weeks, especially while 10p holds.

[swanvesta] 16/8/2021 11:27

tony, apologies if I got it wrong re capex. Just checked internet definitions and they don't seem to make the distinction you've made but it makes sense - would seem little reason to hang on to the balance of CF if capex had already been accounted for.

[pretax2] 16/8/2021 11:12

I3e said up to 30% FCF, so we have to wait.

[pretax2] 16/8/2021 11:11

🤪😜😂

[tonynorstrom1] 16/8/2021 10:12

I think you can take a pretty good stab at calculating FCF and hence the dividend. WHI give you an estimated number for G&A going forward which is the biggest slice from CF to get you to FCF. Also Capex does not affect FCF with the exception of Maintenance Capex.

Dividends and Capex are deductions from FCF. H1 dividend will be similar to the special dividend plus or minus (IMO), H2 will be significantly higher.

Where's Fandangly - he must be pretty upset by the update - ruins his 9p projection.

[jungmana] 16/8/2021 09:41

Been smiling all morning and read today's rns 3 times. As always stated my target here is 30p this year and if all goes to plan a 100p within 24 months.Hold and add anywhere around the recent 11p placing price is my motto.

[swanvesta] 16/8/2021 09:32

Serenity probably won't be drilled any time soon, but if the come up with a deal that requires some contribution it would make sense to set aside some capital? And they will have capex in Canada.

[swanvesta] 16/8/2021 09:27

Yes, the figures given today are operating income guidance for the next few months. You can't project FCF from those without knowing other expenses in the near future (eg potential serenity capex?) And if you don't know FCF you can't calculate dividend, even if you have a % FCF commitment. Having said that I don't think we know the latter yet even for H1?