Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[mhin2] 19/10/2020 09:00

I think being balanced and critically evaluative is necessary in these uncertain times rather than getting stuck in a battle of positions. I also think Lundin and/or Spark Exploration could have an interest in one form or another...but that depends on oil price. In the meantime its a case of keeping head above water (pun intended), until the world develops a sustainable covid strategy of opening up whilst protecting the vulnerable, seeing the back of the US election and until hur completes review and develops forward plan (not long to go now)

[hiddendepths] 19/10/2020 08:57

Pleasantly quiet and civilised on here at present, isn't it mhin? Long may it last. Rational discussion and informed debate is what makes these boards useful imo.

[mhin2] 19/10/2020 08:52

Hidden, OK. But there were too many unknowns and uncertainties as well as assumptions in the tech review...lets see what happens when they have completed. At least (it seems) somebody is accumulating

[hiddendepths] 19/10/2020 08:44

mhin - Agreed, it's sad. I find it hard to believe that the incredibly successful discovery and appraisal wells on Lancaster and, probably, Halifax were not indicative of an extremely large and highly commercial field. I suspect the problem is HOW to develop it, not whether the field is economic. The company thought it had a handle on the way to develop the field. That approach has been proved to be completely wrong.

IF this speculation is correct, the immediate difficulties with getting back on track are twofold. And they're BIG. Firstly, there is a credibility issue now that the company itself has slashed its own estimates of the reserves, resources and potential of the field. So they've got to prove themselves mistaken again and investors will be highly sceptical for a long time! Secondly, it has to be accepted that any serious expenditure is going to be seen, correctly, as much riskier than hitherto. It will not be easy to get finance for wells, even exploration, or field development which may well fail or water out before covering development costs.

Whatever happens, any full-scale development of Lancaster has been deferred for at least 5 years and may well be pushed back so far that global oil demand will have begun its inevitable death spiral as the field comes into production. By then financing for large oil projects will be problematic in the extreme.

But is all this uncertainty and risk of failure priced in with the shares at 2.5p? I would say it probably is. In my experience there is maybe a 20% chance that the shares will revisit 10p at some point in the next year. But I would assign a similar probability to 0p. Maybe a bid at 4p or so from a company with internal financial resources would be a blessing for all.

[the canadian mounted] 19/10/2020 07:25

Onwards and upwards

[mhin2] 18/10/2020 22:09

hidden, I think CA paid more than the current share price ..as to whether they have more info...I believe they and KER will have....but I am inclined to theories about insiders. For better or worse I bought more at 2.465...The Bod said they dont see POSSIBLE problems until 2022, and that was on the worst case scenario. They also intimated that the Lancaster field was complicated and interconnected, and being filled, with what they were unsure. I do not imagine many will be following me, other than those gobbling up at 2.4/2.5, who incidentally, I will be trying to follow. As I said if 6, 7z and Lincloln can produce....there must be much more in the license....unless Trice was a charlatan, and the oil produced an illusion. Leaving that aside, it now comes down to performance, economics and finance - Covid and low oil prices have not helped (Hur revenue at 30 usd a barrel was a shocker. although even at that they generated free cash flow).

However, Steels link about the downgrading of prior sheer size and scale of what HUR promised is sad, but it does not mean that there is no future. Bev Smith may be right but RPS energy surely have to defend their reputation. Maybe, they are all a bunch of overpaid, relative ignorants thus not deserving their reputation as `knowing', `knowledgeable' `experts'.

[hiddendepths] 18/10/2020 21:10

mhin - I don't trust CA! Anyone who remembers their games in this stock a few years back won't either. I think it's a mugs' game using anything they say about one of their holdings as gospel. They have previous for buying, talking it up and knocking a load out. And unless something significant has changed since Dr T left, I do not believe they have access to any more privileged information than us. Also, if they have specialised oil expertise (more oil below the OWC) then that is a change too.I'd be quite inclined to have a punt now if CA weren't playing games. But they probably are and may well have got it wrong this time so I'll wait a while longer.

[the canadian mounted] 18/10/2020 20:30

Gonna be a good week 👍🏽

[mhin2] 18/10/2020 18:36

Leon, I did...seemed if there was more than the board could declare.

Laptop, by my reckoning CA bought higher than current price. However, I don't trust CA...I think they wil trade it...I am wondering what Kerogen are doing...seems to me there is a lot of buying and selling at 2.4 and 2.5.

[laptop15] 18/10/2020 15:35

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1317835567233716227A few hints for you guys from crystal Amber fund with regards why they have been buying heavily

[leoneobull] 18/10/2020 07:42

Mhin. If you listened to the strategic review several times, sis you also detect a bit of a hushed whisper during q and a when the analyst asked about Lincoln?

[the canadian mounted] 17/10/2020 12:34

Hang on to your hats Monday 👍🏽

[mhin2] 16/10/2020 22:13

I though he got a bit confused about the question and how to answer...he did not come across as being in control nor impressive.

[leoneobull] 16/10/2020 21:02

Mhin. A bit unclear in q and A as Chaffe was a bit verbally incontinent...he mentioned 35 initially and then 40 if they only produce 10000 a day. So linked to production

[mhin2] 16/10/2020 19:53

Leon could you confirm that overall break even is 35 POO at 10,000 bopd...that is my understanding (hence the hedge). Also AM costs are about usd 330,000 per day.

[leoneobull] 16/10/2020 19:43

Https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/266476/crystal-amber-hurricane-technical-review/An old favourite

[mhin2] 16/10/2020 16:23

I read that this morn steel, thats why I think if Scotland was independent there would be an investigation. Further given 6 and 7z and Lincoln can produce at the rates identified, there must be more opportunities/prospects available. Leaving that aside if Lancaster is `talking to Lincoln' and 7z is connected to 6, and as HUR believe that Lancaster is connected to Halifax ...that in itself is significant if points of sustainable production can be identified. I am no oil expert but my reasoning implies there is much more that can be learned/extracted from the License area.

[laptop15] 16/10/2020 15:33

https://twitter.com/laptop1515/status/1317111234412613632?s=19

[laptop15] 16/10/2020 14:28

Should go blue soon with all the buying pressure

[gregpeck7] 16/10/2020 14:03

Enw and jkx breaking out nicely.. (both debt free )