Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[realalemadrid] 08/8/2019 20:32

If anyone is interested in the identity of the Trolls please PM me close of play Friday, a good geek friend of mine has a friend working on it now, he is deep into forensically tracking down nasty folk on the dark web, legally I cannot publish the persons name, but will pass the details on to anyone else who wants them! home IP! Work IP! Mobile Phone IP!Network provider! Work address! And of course the money shot that is the home address!

[sentimentrules] 08/8/2019 20:16

Can tell you where i stand here.

Started a new short at 53.9. Was stopped out breakeven prior.

48p is 10%. That I can't let go. So bloody slow I have to get something from it.
So that's locked down.

43p is 20%. I usually take it. Not greedy.

But I want to see price touch 37p

Then il move lockdown from 10% to 20% at 43p

And see what the market yields from there.

[sentimentrules] 08/8/2019 20:03

Lol. Im same as you. Have my set targets and until see change, the lowest is always on radar. Low 30's for sure.

I think the 10p last target depends on the major shareholder. Be very interesting , the next move from them

If it's negative, 10p is not far away.

As for a buy at any stage? No. Can't even buy what one normally would if i saw it here. Market all wrong for it

[nobbygnome] 08/8/2019 20:00

I can see low 30s easily...but 10p.....no it won't go that far down! Oh no they might call me a bull now....

[sentimentrules] 08/8/2019 19:56

Always the hardest thing to call is time. I thought 41's today. You 39's. In the middle lol

Forget 39p. Will 10p and BaleMadrid/Rayrac nerves hold?

Have they enough lubricant in stock ?

[nobbygnome] 08/8/2019 19:51

That 39p will be tested in the next couple of days barring news! Will it hold? Bulls must be very worried.....

[sentimentrules] 08/8/2019 19:49

BaleMadrid and Rayrac must be happy today. Got a 0.2p rise. What a relief lads eh?

Get the lubricant out fellas...more pain on the way ....

[the guardian] 08/8/2019 19:42

katiegos, when companies like Marshall Wace and Polygon buy back shares, the market always seems to be able to accommodate them without moving the price. Never believe that the rules, restrictions and outcomes experienced by small investors apply to those with much more money in the game. We are but pawns in a game of smoke and mirrors where money rules.

[m5] 08/8/2019 16:42

I don't think we need to analyse too much to be fair. I am expecting the share price to rise as we approach LC results, it it does not, the question is why and I will be out. Simples. Someone always knows and greed always prevails.

[tournesol] 08/8/2019 16:40

On the subject of correlation, I will repeat something I've said previously.

If Trump issues a silly tweet and oil drops by 10% it does not mean that valuations fall by 10%.

When valuing reserves/resources and exploration potential the spot price of oil is not the figure used by those working in the industry or as equity analysts. They will have a price deck that represents their forecasts for the entire period over which production is expected to take place. For the EPS that will be 10 years. For the rest of HUR's assets that will be more than 20 years. So if price forecast for coming years is 60/60/65/65/70…;.. then a 10% fall in POO will force people to revisit their forecasts and possibly adjust the next year or two, but typically later years will remain relatively unaffected. That's my observation over many years. The result of changing the price forecast for the next few years might thus be just a tiny adjustment in valuation as calculated over the longer term.

That is why correlation between POO and valuation is almost always weak.

Of course in the short term the share price is driven by investor sentiment - only in the longer term does valuation outweigh sentiment - that old saying comes to mind about voting machines and weighing machines. So correlation can be stronger, but given that sentiment is not based on calculation, any correlation tends to be weaker than might be expected.

[tournesol] 08/8/2019 16:26

Looking at MasterRSI's excellent charts, I struggle to see any correlation at all between POO and HUR.

Break the chart up into chunks.

Between the beginning of the chart and the high point of POO at the end of April, there is zero correlation. POO is going up and HUR falls and then goes sideways.

Between the high point of POO at the end of April and its relative low in June, there is again zero correlation. POO forms a lower peak and then falls steeply. HUR rises very steeply.

From The June low in POO to the end of the chart there might be a bit of correlation but not much. POO shows three ascending peaks then a lower peak then a collapse. HUR shows a modest spike then a massive fall to a new low for the period since the start of the chart, then a very substantial recovery of almost all the preceding fall then an even more massive fall to a new period low.

By the end of the chart POO is level pegging with the beginning. HUR is 15% off.

I don't wish to be pedantic but this does not, in my opinion, amount to any significant level of correlation.

My son is a mathematician and data scientist who understands these things, I'll ask him if he can do some kind of regression analysis to add to my eyeball based comments. More anon.

[steve73] 08/8/2019 16:25

Remember number of declared shorts (or even the stock on loan which is a little higher, IIRC without checking) are way less than the convertibles that are floating around.

So if it's the CB holders that are shorting, then we haven't got a hope - at least until some fresh buyers come in, or until HUR can force the conversion... After Aug 2020 IIRC as long as the share price is over around 60-65p (depends on USD/GBP).

[master rsi] 08/8/2019 16:05

katiegos

re -shorters buying those shares back in a hurry

I suspect the answer you want is NIL, but they have their ways of covering themselves if good news come along and still holding more than a few.
But the answer is still NIL at these prices

note - Maybe we will managed to get over 41p by the close if Brent keeps rising now $57.55

[master rsi] 08/8/2019 15:55

Brent OIL price has consolidated around $56.75 and now is moving higher again, currently $57.42 and rising

[katiegos] 08/8/2019 15:48

M RSI What is the chance of them buying those shares back in a hurry
if HUR come out with good news on LC and big volumes on AM TIA

[telbap] 08/8/2019 15:46

Leoneobull...LC is a possibly producer, in the list of options to tie back to the AM, or do I have that wrong?

[excell1] 08/8/2019 15:42

You may be correct there Master.Good news will shift them.

[master rsi] 08/8/2019 15:39

I am reaching the conclision that the 2 Institutions on the shorting list of HUR are manipulating the price on the order book. As soon as it reaches over 41/41.50p are placing shares on the selling side, and with that bringing the price lower again to the support level.

short positions
Marshall Wace LLP 0.70%
Polygon Global Partners LLP 0.79%

[greyingsurfer] 08/8/2019 13:52

Hi Bocase,

I think M RSI's graph does show "some" correlation with the PoO, but it also shows pretty clearly that does not explain everything. Which is no surprise.

Valuations of companies like HUR, which will be producing a lot more (hopefully) in the future and for a long time, are based on long term expectations of the PoO. You wouldn't expect the share price of HUR to exactly follow changes in spot PoO, even though there may be some impact. HUR is essentially still a news and expectation driven stock. There is enough of a combination of news (mostly recently good) with a lot of uncertainty, and caution (particualry amongst bigger players and potential bidders) for the share price to be very volatile.

[leoneobull] 08/8/2019 13:04

WD was an exploration well, LC is an appraisal

[telbap] 08/8/2019 12:30

@master RSI. They only negative thing since then was WD.Apart from that we have sold over 1 million brls of oil. WD has really hit us hard value wise, and should LC be a similar issue then the market will label us as a one trick pony. I would imagine 10p to 15p would be the result then.Harva, let's be positive and look forward on the basis that LC and subsequent wells will be successful and supply lots of oil.

[sentimentrules] 08/8/2019 12:19

Nobby if 39's come today, great call. I thought 41's would hold for more teletubbies into tomorrow

[m5] 08/8/2019 11:31

I do think price will move forward as we get nearer news, what did we say mid August, earliest? I would think 50p, possibly 55p, hopefully more.

[bocase] 08/8/2019 11:02

Well done Master RSI. I am glad you were up for the challenge.

The comparison clearly shows the correlation but this is slightly confused by the sudden moves on news flow, both good and bad.

As you point out though, well below where we would expect at this oil price. Still, scope for catch up.

Thank you for providing that.

[master rsi] 08/8/2019 10:53

re - bocase 7 Aug '19 - 16:32 - 518 of 544
Master RSI. Yes that is the problem. Would be interesting to superimpose HUR's chart and the oil price chart, if anyone is clever enough to do that.

Well "bocase" This morning I took your bet, and it looks like I managed to succeed
To have a good compare I look for the Brent Oil price to be much the same price as now.

How much is HUR undervalued compare to the same earlier oil share price, that was early February?
The results is HUR is down by 15.39%

Blue line is Brent Oil
Pink line is HUR