Hornby Share Discussion Threads

[mcbeanburger] 18/7/2012 17:01

dang that granny at the bingo hall sure knows her stuff! ;-)
but she was off by 10m but that might cas they sound the same 50... 60.

[enigma2002] 16/7/2012 00:20

lesson learned :-)

[mcbeanburger] 16/7/2012 00:08

horn is on the vsx and not the tsx, not quite as good as tsx but much better then aim.

[enigma2002] 15/7/2012 23:07

i wasnt watching the screen when the price dropped..... i set a stop order for half my holding below the 1.4ish support to guard against a bad drill outcome (with results due any time it seemed a sensible thing to do)..... i have limit orders set too to take profit on a good outcome.

I made the mistake of thinking the shenanigans which we so often see on the AIM etc with price moves which bear no resemblance to the apparent supply and demand situation wouldnt happen on TSX...... it has a reputation for being a far better regulated market.

[judgement] 15/7/2012 22:35

"i got robbed of half my holding on that ridiculous spike down to 1.26 (stop was at 1.33, at what i thought was a sensible position below the 1.4 resistance zone and they filled it at 1.268)"

Why did you think you shareholding was worse value at a lower price than a high price? Isn't it more usual to buy low and sell high? If you think the stock is good value, why didn't you buy more when the price dropped?

[idontpost] 15/7/2012 19:25

Yes a dangerous thing a stop loss, especially as the markets in the uk know the position of stop losses so can take you out.

[enigma2002] 15/7/2012 15:50

i got robbed of half my holding on that ridiculous spike down to 1.26 (stop was at 1.33, at what i thought was a sensible position below the 1.4 resistance zone and they filled it at 1.268)... could have killed something. crooked barstewards.... only saving grace is i still have half and the half they stole they stole at a profit.... all be it a pittance of a profit compared to what it could have been..... i refuse to buy em back for more though... not playing their game (hear that market malmaker scum.... not playing).

[idontpost] 15/7/2012 15:44

Have also bought here. The geology and potential oil in place is off the scale and if they manage to demonstrate a decent early resource the share will move a lot higher.

There is material risk here still, but the price won't be at this level if they confirm a two hole discovery after testing.

Next few days and weeks will likely be key.

[mcbeanburger] 15/7/2012 09:40

tee hee... why yes... the old dear beside me. she seems to know everything.

you don't have to listen, i don't care. I didn't put where it would be seen the most i put here where those in the company might be interested.

i don't think they are finding what they are in kenya but so far oil in both holes is a good sign.

as for TA - i'm comfortable with my purchase to near the top of the day on friday.

[grahamytrain] 14/7/2012 18:07

Now where would that rumour be coming from...your local bingo hall?????

[mcbeanburger] 14/7/2012 09:59

the rumour I'm hearing is 60m of oil shows. so I bought some (again) on friday... near the high but reckon the longs have been wasted out. so we should be good to go higher.

[holts] 13/7/2012 08:23

i don't re-call seeing specific info on the olympics license but i would bet they overpaid and perhaps agreed to percentage sales link that was quite onerous.

[wylecoyote] 05/7/2012 12:55

I have been watching this since Shares mentioned it last year. It has been in a steady downtrend since. I can anticipate good news regarding the Olympics, but beyond that not much. Unless it acts as a catalyst, but fear that it will be news driven.

[cestnous] 05/7/2012 10:56

Nice full page BUY rec in 'Shares' mag today.

[underhill] 21/6/2012 09:43

"Remember, these are the ramblings of a totally amateur investor (I once invested in a company that went into receivership that very same day) and should in no way be construed as investment advice."

Love it!

[mechanical trader] 20/6/2012 11:39

Good read, just taken off twitter..

[mechanical trader] 20/6/2012 08:56

Yes rather strange day yesterdays trading. Looked like I was going to be in profit with an hour to go and then out came what I see as stale bulls to spoil the party.

Cant be that many left now and the shorting on the stock is minimal.

So I look forward with confidence but certainly aware of consumer spending overal in a dip but maybe this £2 to £10 cheap range might do tthe trick and turn the stock around. fingers crossed.

[mechanical trader] 19/6/2012 16:23

Hornby pretax profits remain on track
StockMarketWire.com
Hobby products group Hornby reported turnover for the year to end-March up 1.7% to £64.4m (2011: £63.4m).

Underlying profit before tax was of £4.5m (2011: £4.4m) and reported profit before tax £4m (2011: £4.1m).

Statutory basic earnings per share were 8.19p (2011: 7.50p).

Total dividend was 3.7p per share (2011: 5p).

The Corgi cars and Airfix owner said sales of London 2012 merchandise were growing strongly.

There was a new license win with Moshi Monsters for a range of pin badges and die-cast vehicles and Star Wars Scalextric was launched this year.

The company had net debt of £6.3m at period end (2011: £6.1m).

Frank Martin, CEO, commented, "Despite the backdrop of a challenging market, Hornby is making encouraging progress. Our ability to broaden our product and distribution base will enable us to mitigate to some extent any short term weakness in our traditional hobby sectors. We are pleased that sales of our London 2012 merchandise are gathering momentum. We expect this unique license opportunity to contribute positively to profits in the short term and, through the increased distribution that we gain as a result of our involvement with London 2012, to provide an ongoing legacy benefit in substantially increasing our presence in mass market retail outlets.

"In order to benefit from this increased presence following London 2012 we have developed a number of new ranges with entry-level price points ranging from £2 to £9.99. The first of these ranges is a series of collectable pin-badges based on the Moshi Monsters license.

"There is no doubt that there will continue to be pressure on consumer confidence for some time to come. However we continue to innovate and to seek new commercial opportunities in order to counter the effects of the macro-economic climate in which we are operating."

[mechanical trader] 19/6/2012 15:45

HRN HORNBY..

lets put some share price targets
to the Brokers BUY notes.....

Hornby Broker Views

Date Broker Recommendation Price Old target price New target price Notes

11 Jun WH Ireland Securities Buy 81.50 135.00 135.00 Reiterates
08 Jun Numis Buy 81.50 108.00 108.00 Upgrades

[mechanical trader] 19/6/2012 08:40

Moving up nicely.

Nearly 4% up on the day already.

Olympics should boost this companys
sales and thet got some cheapo trinkets
at affordable prices under a tenner.

[mechanical trader] 19/6/2012 08:07

Couldnt help it was tempted by HORNBY at the death today. Cheap going forward fantastic last RNS outlook statement. Olympics boost.

Brokers on side...... Forward
P/E of just 6.7 to 2013.

Cheap as chips.

Hornby PLC

FORECASTS WIRES 2013 2014
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

W H Ireland Ltd [W]
08-06-12 BUY 6.40 11.60 5.80 6.90 12.60 6.30
Numis Securities Ltd
08-06-12 BUY 6.20 11.70 4.80 6.10 11.60 5.10
Merchant Securities Limited [W]
11-11-11 HOLD

2013 2014
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 6.20 11.70 4.80 6.10 11.60 5.10
1 Month Change -0.30 -0.50 -2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -0.30 -0.30 -2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00


GROWTH
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)
Norm. EPS 8.41% 44.09% -0.86%
DPS -25.37% -4.00% 6.25%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £m £m £m
EBIT £m £m £m
Dividend Yield 6.33% 6.08% 6.46%
Dividend Cover 1.62x 2.44x 2.28x
PER 9.73x 6.75x 6.81x
PEG 1.16f 0.15f -7.97f
Net Asset Value PS p p p







Frank Martin, Chief Executive of Hornby, commented,

" Despite the backdrop of a challenging market, Hornby is making encouraging progress. Our ability to broaden our product and distribution base will enable us to mitigate to some extent any short term weakness in our traditional hobby sectors. We are pleased that sales of our London 2012 merchandise are gathering momentum. We expect this unique license opportunity to contribute positively to profits in the short term and, through the increased distribution that we gain as a result of our involvement with London 2012, to provide an ongoing legacy benefit in substantially increasing our presence in mass market retail outlets.



" In order to benefit from this increased presence following London 2012 we have developed a number of new ranges with entry-level price points ranging from £2 to £9.99. The first of these ranges is a series of collectable pin-badges based on the Moshi Monsters license.



" There is no doubt that there will continue to be pressure on consumer confidence for some time to come. However we continue to innovate and to seek new commercial opportunities in order to counter the effects of the macro-economic climate in which we are operating."



-ends-

[mechanical trader] 18/6/2012 18:32

Brokers on side...... Forward
P/E of just 6.7 to 2013.

Cheap as chips.

Hornby PLC

FORECASTS WIRES 2013 2014
Date Rec Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

W H Ireland Ltd [W]
08-06-12 BUY 6.40 11.60 5.80 6.90 12.60 6.30
Numis Securities Ltd
08-06-12 BUY 6.20 11.70 4.80 6.10 11.60 5.10
Merchant Securities Limited [W]
11-11-11 HOLD

2013 2014
Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax (£) EPS (p) DPS (p)

Consensus 6.20 11.70 4.80 6.10 11.60 5.10
1 Month Change -0.30 -0.50 -2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00
3 Month Change -0.30 -0.30 -2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00


GROWTH
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)
Norm. EPS 8.41% 44.09% -0.86%
DPS -25.37% -4.00% 6.25%

INVESTMENT RATIOS
2012 (A) 2013 (E) 2014 (E)

EBITDA £m £m £m
EBIT £m £m £m
Dividend Yield 6.33% 6.08% 6.46%
Dividend Cover 1.62x 2.44x 2.28x
PER 9.73x 6.75x 6.81x
PEG 1.16f 0.15f -7.97f
Net Asset Value PS p p p

[druinsky] 15/6/2012 09:17

People seem happy to pay for model trains, especially in Europe - see recent like for like growth

[holts] 15/6/2012 09:00

their core market is showing very high resistance to their over pricing it will soon not be able to subsidise the attempts to branch into other areas , we have seen this before with Hornby its not something they do well .