Hornby Share Discussion Threads

[marty51] 21/11/2012 12:18

$16.1m cash $12.5m working capital.


There is no downside here whatsoever.

[marty51] 19/11/2012 07:07

I went to Stockholm on sept 13th, it was a presentation for the Swedes, obviously cos theyre listed there and Lundin is a Swede.
About 300 people in attendance.
When it had finished KH had half an hour chatting with about 20 of us, I had one to one dialogue with him too which was good as did my business partner who came along and now has HRN.
The presentation is on youtube, just type in Africa Oil presentation Stockholm etc etc.
Yes he can present aswell, really good and you can see why they are absolutely class at what they do, worth an hour of your time just to reinforce what you think, ill be surprised if by the next world cup we havent ten bagged here at least.
Thats why Im going to carry on buying,they have big plans for HRN, and Im pretty confident that if i dont load up ill regret it, its just sitting there and we may even get back to the 25s yet.
I watched AOI and watched it at just over a dollar and knew it would work like all their Companies do,these people are dealmakers and the rules are simple sit tight and leave them to it, its the next vehicle and these guys are not retiring anytime soon.
I fancy Marathon will have some involvement with HRN, they get on very well with them and also TPN hold a nice block in Kenya and their Board are the old Lion Energy Board who AOI bought out....so Im keeping an eye on them too, Libya is on the radar and we know that there have been discussions with the new regime.
Excitement and patience.

[madigansar] 18/11/2012 22:20

Marty, I have read up a lot on Hill / Lundin etc and am very impressed. Like you say it may take a while, but will be worth the wait for the multiples. I bet Hill is very interesting to listen to. Was it a presentation to potential investers in Sweden you attended? Will there be any notes available to those who couldn't attend?

[marty51] 18/11/2012 21:57

Madigansar, these are the bottom drawer classic.
Im having another 50k this week and two of my good pals are joining in here also.
Between us we will hold over a million of these.
Nice to see in the RNS they are sticking to the script, HRN is confirmed again to be the next purchasing vehicle and the farm-in talks continue.
My trip to Sweden is why Im here, i was in that room as was my mate who holds a good few of these, we listened to Hill and the plans for this and we are long in the tooth enough to know it could take a while....but...we will get the multiples from here and thats good enough for me.

Its patience.

[marty51] 18/11/2012 21:52

and the other 8 Lundin Companies that returned on average over 30 times your money without Tullow on Board juju ?

These people know what theyre doing Im happy with my shareholding thanks.

[juju44] 18/11/2012 18:24

i would tread carefully . AOI are looking good because Tullow is on board. That is not the case here

[madigansar] 18/11/2012 18:15

Marty I am also frustrated we lost the gain, but you just never know what will happen as it could have kept climbing. I wonder what drove the share price up?. I wasnt tempted to sell as am here for longer haul also. I know you feel - I missed out on AOI at $1 or so too and ended up paying $6 and then topped up a bit at $10. I also have SMB.

[marty51] 18/11/2012 17:31

Just back from a week in the sun, so we have slid back to 29c, well that means the green light for more.
Nice to see it reconfirmed in print that HRN is the project purchasing vehicle and talks are ongoing, a little frustrated i never traded some of mine, but for me the Lundin group shares are a buy and hold as the track record books will verify profit wise, got two of them AOI and HRN, I will be grabbing more HRN because I firmly believe it will be a firecracker at some point, there is a lot of oil in Puntland.
We will drill again within the next year or so and when we do, if you put in the mix some in house funding and maybe a new deal or two banked aswell plus someone else having a slice and paying the costs with Nugaal, we will be considerably higher than this.
I should have loaded up on AOI at $1.20 and I didnt, I wont make the same mistake twice, ill be getting more this week, and i think theyll be even cheaper than they are now.

[closetinvestor] 12/11/2012 11:31

Genel Energy farming into Somaliland

[marty51] 11/11/2012 21:26

Options are a stake in a sense, but agree with what you say about the holdings in AOI.
Should get some kind of strategic news concerning Puntland soon, difficult to know when, but its a clasic buy and sit share right now.
I was fortunate to get in at an average of 25c and will do exactly that.
In the grander scheme of things 38c is cheap anyway.
This Comapny will be made to work.
Its worth investing purely for the management and the Nugaal block which when drilled is a potential monster, just need to sort the disputes out.
Then theres all the other projects that are being eyed.

[closetinvestor] 10/11/2012 09:28

The previous time I had held these was prior to their drilling in Puntland began. I came across them whilst researching RMP/RRL. HRN shot off from under $1 to nearly $2 after my purchase. I had bought both HRN and AOI (latter around $2.5) One of the side attractions for me in HRN was the number of options the directors had with strike prices close to my purchase price ($0.8). Never like it when greedy directors get a chance to buy at lower prices than I have to pay.

I think the excessive hype that followed HRN (more RMP/RRL really) at the time has now gone, with 25c looking like a base. Hence why I've re-opened my position (not huge, but big enough). Took my eye off the ball for that entry price, but happy enough to be in at 38c. Let's see what happens.

The only negative is that directors don't hold any shares - just options. However, as I said in a previous post, AOI owns nearly 50% of HRN, and there the (same) directors do have a large holding. So they are holders indirectly in HRN too.

[madigansar] 09/11/2012 22:04

juju there was no ramping.. just stating facts - there is a difference. A bit of profit taking today by some punters after a good run.

[marty51] 09/11/2012 21:51

juju, youre a drain. maybe you should have loaded up with these a week or two ago, you might not be so bitter.

[juju44] 09/11/2012 21:50

where are all the rampers tonight

[holts] 09/11/2012 11:10

An idea of what is about. Their competitor Has produced a unit which they have sold at just under 200 trade , six thousand pieces I believe , sold the lot .

The sad bit is that hornby Made this unit in their triang days , have they bothered since ? No. Profitable sales of 1.2 million rather than a million lost for an Olympic license would have made more sense , they can't get their head around not being a toy/junk re-seller, concentrate on what you do best .

Thanks willy I think I'll pass on that one .

[madigansar] 09/11/2012 09:20

Good for you guys. Dosh all tied up otherwise I would have piled in for more... Marty an average of 29c with a decent holding will set you up very nicely ! I am thinking I should have put these in an ISA, haven't used my allowance yet.

[williemanjaro] 09/11/2012 09:15

no-no-no----I dont believe for a millisecond this is a dying business. And dont lets go down the playstation/xbox route as that type of thinking is totally nonsense. However the decline here looks terminal and self making unless current management (still apparently wearing flared trousers coupled to quick sand ambitions!)get rid of Martin and bring in some real free thinking innovators.
Holts offer your services :^)

[closetinvestor] 09/11/2012 08:46

Well if you can't beat 'em - bought in yesterday (again - held previously) at between 38-39c. Already in profit.

[fangorn2] 09/11/2012 08:30

Haha probably alot of truth in that Spob, unfortunately.
Concur that its sadly a dying business model.

[spob] 09/11/2012 08:23

I thought Hornbys market was old gits playing out their childhood in the loft, whilst also avoiding the wife.

:)

Anyway whichever way you look at it this is a dying business model, compounded by the over inflated prices that Hornby charges in this era of austerity.

[fangorn2] 09/11/2012 08:01

I personally feel that they're operating in a declining sector. Fond memories of my childhood - train sets, glueing planes together..But the kids these days prefer to play on Xboxes or Playstations.

What proportion of them have ever built a Airfix plane or run their own railway?

[falklands] 09/11/2012 08:01

Bum will this go the same way as air fix and do a comet ?

[holts] 09/11/2012 07:58

Whilst I am certain they are aware ,the lack of urgency to address the pricing issues in the UK market concerns me, they were made aware of this from trade reaction at least three years ago.

However it seems that little note is taken.

The airfix product is selling because to quote from rns "its priced keenly " the other ranges would benefit from that thinking.

The range that was keenly priced was selling well so what did they do ? Substantially increase the price, you couldn't make it up no longer selling as it was.

Wake up hrn before it gets worse, stop blaming the supplier and negotiate harder line by line.

[spob] 09/11/2012 07:58

Dividend is history as expected