Holders Technology Share Discussion Threads

[alfwilson] 25/10/2004 14:11

DJ

Your so kind to suggest an interesting origin for my Alf, which is much metter than 'Alien Life Force' that my US friends have suggeted (may be something to do with me being a Geordie?)

[diogenesj] 25/10/2004 14:08

Efcharisto, kyrie marcou. I share your view, so let's hope for the best. :-)

[amarcou] 25/10/2004 14:01

Diogenes,

No doubt no investment is without risk.

But I look at the downside which ( for a company with net assets per share of 82p excuding goodwill and NCA of over £1) I see as being limited.

Then I look at the upside and I think the price now should be £1.55 going to £2.00 on results and could easily go to £3 or £4 in the not so distant future.

Potential is huge.

I am just an investor.

The PE ratio is in single figures.

[diogenesj] 25/10/2004 12:37

Thanks, AM. As you say, the figures look good, and no investment is entirely without risk, so I decided to jump in. Are you just an investor or do you know the company well?

[amarcou] 25/10/2004 12:23

Diogenes J,

Welcome as a shareholder!!

I looked at your posts in some more detail and would add the following.

You are concerned of size, spread and share concentration.

I am normally concerned of size but only if the companies are underfunded or trading around or below their break even.

This does not apply here and from their net assets are over £1 ie nothing for goodwill and their net current assets are over 80p per share or £3.4m!!

The spread as explained before is well within 10% which is what you get with most small caps.

The share concentration can be an advantage in as far as there are no "loose" shares in the market.

As to the rollovers it was my suspicion they were.May be there were sequential buys but I dont think so.

Is it worth the effort and risk?

I suppose by deciding to join means that the risk reward assessment gave you positive results.


And for the tick up this was only on the bid to try and get a sale ( which they did get 2,000 for your 3,000 purchase). The MM's dont hold that many shares but what you experienced today is not the norm.

[amarcou] 25/10/2004 11:45

Morning all,

What a surprise to get so many posts!!

I accept two MM's is not an ideal scenario.

As to the spread look at WTV ( was used to be VTB) its 33%.

However here the actual spread is around 6-7% since you are a few pence inside the spread on a buy or sell.

Yes NMS is 500 shares but trades of up to 10,000 are normally done electronically.

The company is indeed very small but very healthy ( look at the balance sheet, nect current assets etc) and paying good dividends.

Its nice to be locked in a company like this especially when there is more than enough profits to pay a good dividend unless you are a short term investor.

As to the rollovers it is my understanding that you can only rollover once and whatever the issue is it will be out very soon. I agree that it makes no sense to rollover illiquid stocks unless there was a temporary cashflow which necessitated a rollover.

[diogenesj] 25/10/2004 10:56

Ah, Cambium too: the vultures gather. :-)

alf: lol, for once I am more conservative than you. I'll be very pleased with anything much over 150p. I think the small size, lack of liquidity, and governance concerns (the excellent Mr Weinreich is not only both chairman and chief executive, but also has a controlling 49.5% interest) definitely demand a discount.

Alf is a good name, by the way. My son is an Alfred. (Unless you are named after Alf, the sacred river, which ran through caverns measureless to man.)

[alfwilson] 25/10/2004 10:30

DJ
Pleased to see you on this BB. The numbers look good and according to my historically conservative model a £3 price does look possible.Like you I have 3000 at 120.5p.

[diogenesj] 25/10/2004 10:20

Have to admire your confidence, both of you, but I expect you know the company better than I do. It certainly looks good value - but I always find it a bit worrying when I buy 3,000 shares, the only trade of the day showing so far, and the price immediately ticks up (only the bid price in this case). I know the same effect can work against you if anything goes wrong.

It's precisely because in these circumstances this has to be seen as a fairly long term investment that I am puzzled by the apparent 'rollovers'.

Anyway, best wishes, and good luck all.

[mitzis] 25/10/2004 10:08

Welcome aboard Diogenes...getting quite a following over the last few months.
I'm not sure whether the large rollovers are significant because I know that Andre(Mrs) has a 3% holding and is a long term holder (at least the next 12 months) and myself included holding over 1%..I may double my holding next Year when I have the proceeds of a maturing Vct..but as Andre has said the shares could reach 200p or even 300p within 2 years so I am happy to hold long term.

[diogenesj] 25/10/2004 09:53

Thanks, M. Had a small punt this morning (3000 shs at 120.75p).

Do you have any views on the mysterious 'rollover' question? I'm interested in what might be being rolled over in such relatively large quantities (considering the illiquidity of this share), and what might happen to the price if the supposed holder decided not to roll over next time but tried to close his position.

Any holding of an instrument that requires rolling over is presumably a fairly short term holding, and the holder must, I suppose, be expecting some good news in the fairly short term. Any change in his/her view could cause considerable fluctuations in the price.

[mitzis] 25/10/2004 08:49

Can buy 4000 on-line at 120.75; and sell 1500 at 113.25p.

[mitzis] 24/10/2004 23:14

Theres no problem buying 2000 shares but anything above that you will have phone your broker...and you can sell 1500 shares via the on-line brokers.

[diogenesj] 24/10/2004 21:38

Hi, CR. How did you pop up here?

Certainly not one I would want to build a large position in, but I'm wondering whether even a small position is worth the effort and risk.

[cockneyrebel] 24/10/2004 21:21

I held these a while back, very illiquid.

They warned and the share just became untradeable. Sell 500 and they marked the stock down 5%+, and they had 3mm's in those days, not two like now.

Fairly interesting but I don't deal in stocks with 2mm's anymore - you are just held to ransom at times, especially if the is a moderate sized seller.

Not something to build too large a position in for sure imo.

Luck to the brave tho.

CR

[diogenesj] 24/10/2004 21:13

Evening, guys & gals. This looks sort of interesting (apart from the tiny size, near 10% spread, and the fact that about 5 people (one of whom appears to be posting on this thread) are holding about 75% of the shares. Certainly looks good value - but then it probably needs to be with those disadvantages.

Forgive my ignorance, but what is all this talk of rollovers? I agree that when you go for days without any trades at all, and then a few large ones go through that are obviously related, you think it might be something like that. But who would be T-trading or spread-betting something as illiquid as this, and why would they want to do it?

Is it actually possible to buy any shares, and if you do can you sell them afterwards? Normal market size appears to be 500 shares.

[amarcou] 15/10/2004 15:10

alfwilson,

I was looking at BPRG today and realised that there were a lot of roll overs there.

You normally see the lower price first ( since they need to sell) followed by a higher price ( the repurchase) for the same amount of shares.

I suppose in BPRG they are listing in NAS on 20th October and people roll over past that date.

[alfwilson] 15/10/2004 09:50

amarcou

my duplication has been corrected. phew!

[alfwilson] 15/10/2004 09:36

amarcou

There seems to be a lot of duplication going on today ... not just HDT. One of my buys appeared twice ... and the broker is going to be disappointed if they think they will be paid twice!

[amarcou] 15/10/2004 01:11

Barnetpeter,

Transactions for the same number of shares taking place within a minute of each other may be rollovers although it is possible to be sequential buys.

Whatever they are now in the price.

[alfwilson] 14/10/2004 18:23

amarcou

If you are the 'large shareholder' in HDT ... I guess you will be careful what you post ... and encourage others to DYOR?

[barnetpeter] 14/10/2004 16:46

Nope but I reckon A Marcou can.

[mitzis] 14/10/2004 16:37

Could someone explain the massive buys today as I am in th dark....

[alfwilson] 14/10/2004 13:46

amarcou

I have assumed that you are the same A Marcou that appears as a large shareholder? Did you ever have a connection with the electroics industry? I spent most of my working life in the electronic component industry including spells with SEMICONDUCTOR and PCB manufacturers although my interest in HDT is purely based upon the numbers.

Alf