Holders Technology Share Discussion Threads

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 21:07

Stan,

The rest have saved me doing any detailed calulations.

Even your 12.6p EPS on a PE of 12 gives over £1.50; I make the EPS at least 13p and on a PE of 12 get my £1.55 NOW and on 16p next year more like £2.

AND THESE ARE VERY CONSERVATIVE. 6.2P IN THE FIRST SIX MONTHS WAS WEAK. 8P OR EVEN 9P IS MORE LIKELY MAKING A POSSIBLE 14P 0R 15P THIS BECOMES 168P TO 180P NOW.

As your sharpish fall for tomorrow the T trade was worked DURING the day; ie its all in the price now.

Yes, there may a profits warning but this may apply to any listed company; to me it looks unlikely.

Are you a shareholder?


"You think a fairer value should be 100p".Can you tell us why you think that?

I think it should be 155p NOW and around the £2 early next year and based it on the company's profits.

AND THAT IS A VERY REALISTIC ASSESSMENT; READ THE ACCOUNTS FOR THE HALF YEAR AGAIN.

[barnetpeter] 04/10/2004 18:58

You are right that it has been patchy in the past. But the move to outsource abroad has clearly helped a lot, they have cleared the loss making stuff out and are investing in China and elsewhere. I read the (measured) statements made by the company that they are doing rather well. EPS in the weaker first half was 6.2p and I think that there is every chance of 8 - 9p in the second half. You yourself suggest 25% growth in EPS next year so your PE figure is rather low.

Bit strange also that you think it will fall the day AFTER a sell .... unless it was by a Director, which is possible I suppose.

[stan] 04/10/2004 18:42

i have seen an eps figure for this year of 12.6p and for next year of 15.8p. the company has a history of patchy trading and so i would never expect it normally to sit on a p/e ratio much over single figures or well above NAV. Until we get further evidence of a justified rise in the share price to these levels then i think the 100p mark is a much fairer valuation, especialyy for such a very little company where things could go drastically wrong...say the instance of a large bad debtor.

Of course if there is any news that is not in the market or that i am unaware of which has been driving the share price then i am at a bit of a disadvantage here. I'm just basing my valuation on what is known at present.

i am interested in knowing where you got the eps figure of 19p for this year from footrot unless you are including some exceptonal profits that is.

[mitzis] 04/10/2004 18:04

All divisions are performing strongly...Nav is 100p..they pay a good dividend..growing profits and sales..possibility of a bid..

[wal footrot] 04/10/2004 17:45

Expected profit for this year of 800k

shares in issue 4.14m

eps 19p

@£2/share gives pe of 10.

Scope to beat that, growth through acquisition has been strong.

Divi

Possibility of buyout by bigger player

Theres my reasoning behind £2 by early next year.

I agree it may be overbought in the short term, and yes it could fall to close to the pound mark (if it goes below £1 then there is something wrong)

As for'it could drop on a profit warning' yes, it could. And did you also know that the pope, if he lived in northern ireland, would probably be a member of the republican party.

Have you any figures to backup your theory of a retrace?

wal

[stan] 04/10/2004 17:27

yeah that was a very big sell...should see a sharpish fall tomorrow i think. By the way I think you are all getting a bit carried away as far as price targets go...i wouldn't be surprised to see them fall back pretty quickly to the 100p mark (and well below that too if there is any sort of profit warning in the future.)

and where the hell do you get these target figures from...do you base them on some kind of analysis...seems to me you could pluck any figure you like out of the air.

[miss chief] 04/10/2004 16:46

Indeed ! We haven't had this much activity for weeks. And at this price it still isn't even vaguely expensive.

Edit: amarcou - I reckon you're right and it must be a sell. Share price would be way north of here otherwise

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 16:41

Very interesting stuff!!

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 16:40

Definitely a sell.

In fact I had a big buy order the other day as a T trade and they only managed to get me 2,500.

I wonder who sold 75,000 shares.

I suppose there will be a number of other major shareholders below the 3% limit.

[miss chief] 04/10/2004 16:39

I dunno - it could've been a buy filled over several days and would explain the rises last week on comparitvely low volume.
Either way price is considerably higher than this time last week.

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 16:36

Looks like a sell to me.

All buys were around 123p or more.

Cant see that being a buy averaging 122.67p.

Comments?

[miss chief] 04/10/2004 16:34

75,000 'T' trade at the close !

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 16:30

CEO has 49.50
Rath Dhu 9.89
Armstrong Inv. 7.84
Hugh Gregory 3.28
Other direct. 1.00

Total 71.51%

[miss chief] 04/10/2004 16:28

lol. I couldn't remember his name when I posted, since remembered it's Mr. Weinreich of course. So that's about three quarters of issued shares held tightly - so that makes today's volume something around 8% of the remaining shares.

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 16:21

Miss Chief,

The "boss" as you say holds 49% but 3 others a further 23% between them?

Will check and let you know.

[miss chief] 04/10/2004 15:21

Over 2% of the company traded today so far. Considering that the boss man holds 49% (I think) this is big volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see this rise further yet.

[amarcou] 04/10/2004 14:02

Let me correct myself also.

I am not looking to sell at 155p either.

I saw that as the short term target; by the time we get an indication of full year results ( December may be?) this will continue to head North.

[mitzis] 04/10/2004 13:57

2004 profit expected 800k; and 2005 expected profit £1.1m.

[wal footrot] 04/10/2004 13:52

Ah, thought that might be a bit premature.

Would have thought i would start getting tempted to offload a few at round £2.

This stock must be incredibly tightly held, to move so far (and so consistently) on so few trades.

[alfwilson] 04/10/2004 13:51

barnetpeter

Somehow have missed this thread before now. Having discovered HDT today ... I would be inclined to expect 300p given that actual interim figures suggests forecast eps are very conservative. Sadly I do not have any funds at this time so I hope you guys are not in rush and push up the price to quickly.

Alf

[barnetpeter] 04/10/2004 13:42

Didnt say I would sell; 155ish is the next chart target. Above that and 200p is next.

[wal footrot] 04/10/2004 13:38

personally not going to sell at 152 or 155.

im in these for at least until the next set of results, unless i decide to change my mind ;-)

[barnetpeter] 04/10/2004 13:36

More than a tick. Thats a solid 5% on the day - again.

155p then.

[wal footrot] 04/10/2004 13:34

Getting closer to your 152/155 targets chaps.