Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[panshanger1] 28/2/2020 11:01

Sorry to hear that EIBest wishes for a speedy recovery

[purplepelmets] 28/2/2020 11:00

2 choices. Martial law worldwide. No travel. No socializing. Food rationed. For many years, until the virus dies out somehow. or choice 2, just let it run riot, hope we all catch it soon and get over it like a flu and get on with the art of living, loving and dying in freedom. I favor the 2nd choice!

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 10:55

I'm self isolating as have asthma and not sure I would survive pneumonia.
A chest cold for me can mean a visit to A&E, unfortunately.
So the next couple of months are going to be an absolute joy, Not.
May still contract the virus through my better half, but doing whatever
I can to avoid it.

It feels like we are watching some disaster movie unfolding, but it's real life!, hey no.

[redponza] 28/2/2020 10:50

Andy is correct before and I was wrong, this virus is spreading to everywhere

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 09:53

It depends on your timeframe, risk tolerance and outlook.

As mentioned many times on the SHA board I have been largely in cash
since early last June, too cautious on markets. So very much welcome
current downside and volatility. It's what I've been waiting for. And would like further equity falls.

Apologies to anyone who may be margined long!.

[rcturner2] 28/2/2020 09:46

Plenty of time for bargains, I cannot believe people were buying into this recently. Mental.

[essentialinvestor] 28/2/2020 08:15

Not much under Wednesday's low price so not adding.
Significant index falls since then.

[tim 3] 27/2/2020 20:32

That last paragraph in the FT is just the sort of ridiculous scaremongering we get every-time something like this happens.The fact that China is already seeing numbers dropping shows that with the correct measures it can be controlled and thats before we know more about how its spread and how to control and treat it.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 16:34

Alright for some Andy!!. You jet setter ). Enjoy.

[andyj] 27/2/2020 16:17

Took RDSA up to 8% of my portfolio and will now take a break in Phu Quoc island for a week. The tipping point was when I bought some CUKS tonight and mistakenly bought £60,000 worth instead of £6000! A costly error! Definitely time for a break from the market! Good luck and wash your hands!

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 13:38

That death described above is one of the most hideous possible ways to die.


You could never tell I live with depression, hide it well, eh )).

[andyj] 27/2/2020 12:50

Remember we have been worrying about it longer than you have and we are all a bit fatigued and bored of worrying about it.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 10:56

Interestingly just looking at the Kospi from overnight,
it was only 1% lower, even with the number of coronovirus cases multiplying
In South Korea.

What investors may discover is it's stocks with large UK and European exposure
that are now in the full firing line.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 10:29

Andy, does not strike me as that type tbh.
And he looks absolutely shattered.

[aleman] 27/2/2020 10:28

All Japan's schools closed until April.

[aleman] 27/2/2020 10:24

It sounds like Japan is closing all its schools.

[andyj] 27/2/2020 09:55

Seriously I used to follow him, but he is merely interested in wallowing in his temporary fame caused by his sensationalist forecasts. I wish these so called virologists would spend less time muddling with mathematical forecasts and just tell us how it is spreading from person to person!

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 09:49

Aleman, fwiw Processor Neil Ferguson said it may be 0.25%, that's the low
mortality estimate, If it's 1-2% and 30/40% of the population contract the virus then that really is a terrible outcome. How on earth would the NHS navigate that?.

For starters nearly all non urgent elective procedures would be cancelled, non urgent out patient appointments. Even more urgent diagnostic tests may be put on hold?. Holiday leave cancelled, unless
exceptional circumstances etc. We might possibly need to utilise army facilities. Medics from the
armed forces etc.

The government may even request those who left the medical profession over the last couple of years
come back to help. where possible.

[aleman] 27/2/2020 09:40

Death rate from a normal flu is around 0.1%. A modern bad flu might be about 0.3%. Most scientific analysis is still leaning to 1-2% for Covid-19 on reported numbers but that does not account for the invisible/asymptomatic cases that have been causing the high spread rates. Estimates vary for cases missed from 10% up to 90%. Adjust the 1-2% for that and you get a range of 0.1% to 1.8%. And that's also not allowing for subtituted deaths, misdiagnosed deaths, and higher rates in China for each age group due to very high smoking rates amongst men. The last point suggests you should slide mortality rates up 5 years for the UK - so 81% of deaths will be over 65 rather than China's 60, which would make our death rate maybe around a half for the equivalent age group, though not alter the overall rate. If it turns out less than 1%, we should just carry on as normal with precautions for the vulnerable. If higher, containment actions are probably justified. It's going to be a long time before we know what was the right course of action.

But I still say we're entering recession. Companies have been issuing recessionary profit warnings for months even if markets have not reacted. The virus reactions have made that worse.

[essentialinvestor] 27/2/2020 09:16

There are probably 100's of cases here already.
With London bring such an international hub, density of population
in urban areas, packed public transport. And added to this how many
overseas students do we have studying in the UK, many from Asian countries.

Having personal experience of A&E and my partner is often there with work,
it may get ugly here if this hits hard, a lot depends on severity of symptoms.
Hopefully most are very mild and won't require treatment.

[rcturner2] 27/2/2020 09:14

Andy, I'm not worrying about anything lol.

[andyj] 27/2/2020 09:13

Two more cases in the UK, that is it, the end of the world is nigh! Seriously it will affect consumer and economic activity, but nothing like as much or for as long as the fear that precedes it. The Chinese markets are all green again and if anyone knows the outcome, they do!

[andyj] 27/2/2020 08:59

Exactly a month ago I was predicting the end of the world and you were mostly wondering what I was going on about. You have 8 ongoing cases in the UK and you are worrying about having 30 million?

[rcturner2] 27/2/2020 08:57

The death rate for seasonal flu is much lower.