Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 24/2/2020 09:30

I think the virus is so far ahead of us that no one knows how it is spreading, therefore how to prevent it spreading, how to test for it or even know when someone has it. Apparently only 18 new cases in the whole of China, outside of Hubei. They of all people should know how to identify it. If it were not for the Italian and Korean cases, the market would be roaring up on those numbers. Panic has finally hit the market and for me, it is time to start dipping in.

[andyj] 24/2/2020 09:11

My buy has just gone through, starting to rebuild a position here.

[andyj] 24/2/2020 09:07

But that is only because it is spreading in Europe. Out here in Asia, there is relief (if also distrust) at the numbers coming out from China.

[essentialinvestor] 24/2/2020 08:45

Added a few. Someone mentioned a possible low around 3.20 recently,
might be an interesting level?.

Mentioned last week now markets had traveled from fear to complancy
which was perhaps no justified. Fear is back.

[essentialinvestor] 23/2/2020 14:49

Interesting week in prospect for markets.
My take fwiw is Asian markets had about priced in the China epidemic,
but not a global pandemic.

If you want to look at potential upside, volatility can create opportunities.

[aleman] 23/2/2020 11:14

Study suggests 63% to 73% of Covid-19 cases exported from China have gone undetected.

[aleman] 23/2/2020 10:11

It's worth remembering that there are around 100 people dying from Covid-19 in China each day but that is still well short of the typical number of a little under 1500 that die in China from normal pneumonia each day - and that's averaged throughout the year. It might be a bit higher through winter months. Yet we do little to avoid contracting the viruses, bacteria and fungi that generate normal pneumonia and rely on those at risk to take their own precautions.

[andyj] 23/2/2020 01:22

I think the world is beginning to realise that it cannot be contained. Fear will accompany every new outbreak as it is in Italy, South Korea and Iran now. Once we know definitively how it is transmitted I expect a turning point. For then we know how to prevent it being transmitted and identity those who have it. Fear will be mitigated by practical solutions. For example, out here people are looking at the latest numbers from Hubei, reading 130 new deaths and 600 new cases and insisting that it means the virus is becoming more deadly. The same people who were saying that it was nothing to worry about a few weeks ago. Hfel is now trading slightly below NAV, only once has it done so before in the past five years.

[aleman] 22/2/2020 11:05

andyj - deaths and recoveries are 2345 and 21024 - a mortality rate of 10.0%. However, a few days ago, death rate was 14% and a couple of weeks ago it was 20%. It's been trending down.

The trend will always change over time as people react differently to the evolution of the pandemic. Initially, infected people were going to the main provincial hospitals in Wuhan and spreading to old and vulnerable in and outpatients. Now there are separate Covid-19 hospitals, people are avoiding public gatherings, and the old vulnerable will be self isolating to avoid catching it. This would produce a high death rate to begin with and a lower one later. Everyone is wearing masks which will slow the spread. We will likely see a similar trend in rates outside China. People do not perceive a threat to begin with and will change behaviour when they feel threatened. The jump in cases and deaths outside China this weekend will likely see people start to change behaviour globally, partly on their own and partly under instruction. (Cases outside China are up 23% to 1634, and deaths 55% to 17, in 24 hours.)

The economic hit outside China will step up a magnitude this weekend too, As behaviour changes, I would imagine.

[stur7672] 22/2/2020 09:53

This podcast is just over a week old but worth listening to:Behind the Stats | WS More or Less: Coronavirus - The Numbershttps://www.podbean.com/ea/dir-pr87w-80a9036It will also be available on the BBC sounds app

[essentialinvestor] 22/2/2020 09:22

We don't know either the % of asymptomatic cases or of mild cases
not shown in official stats. Professor Neil Ferguson,
who I've been following, appears to suggest about 10% of cases (very approx) are
being detected. Even among experts in modelling disease progression there are
wildly different estimates on the new coronovirus.

For anyone interested:

[turvart] 22/2/2020 03:21

Nice chart, very choppy, could make some good money on that chart, I like it to be honest!

[andyj] 22/2/2020 03:15

The problem is people who should know better are throwing around mortality rates, yet ignoring the fact that you cannot compare a current mortality rate with a historic rate, such as SARS. The virus kills slowly, on average it takes 20 days so far. Only after the virus becomes history and the last hospitalised person recovers will we know the mortality rate. If you want a rate that means anything, of those who have had the virus, around 2300 have died and 22000 have survived. Thus a mortality rate at around 10% is the most accurate current rate. In addition it is unhelpful to present the fact that mostly older people have died. It is still spreading, they have died first, as would be expected. It does not mean others are safe or that survivors are immune from reinfection. In countries with less developed medical facilities that could spiral upwards. The world is right to react with fear and controlling and managing that fear will be the biggest test for global governments. The markets have not even begun to price in the potential this virus could have on the global economy. Like you, I hope that it does not come to that, but there can be no doubt that at the moment the virus is winning.

[exel] 21/2/2020 21:54

Hugely helpful, Aleman, confirms my gut view that (by far) the 80+ cohort is much the most at risk from CV. Have now followed that expert on Twitter! Thanks! exel

[hastings] 21/2/2020 19:45

Jeez, get it into context! Swine flu pandemic mortality rate, prevention, control, and economic fall out.If things don't change they stay as they are!!

[kiwi2007] 21/2/2020 19:22

"...The death rate from this new virus is hopefully well under 1%."

Interestingly the death rate for foreign citizens in China, who have been diagnosed with the virus, is around 7%.
Probably a statistical anomaly and not a result of Chinese under reporting (though the deaths of foreign citizens would be be much harder to cover up).

"..China now says there are 29 confirmed coronavirus cases involving foreign citizens, including 10 in Hubei, the epicentre of the outbreak.

Among the 29 cases, two have died, 18 were discharged and nine remain in isolation receiving treatment..."

www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12310734

[aleman] 21/2/2020 19:17

exel
21 Feb '20 - 17:42 - 485 of 486

If a 'demographic/by age analysis' of the global CV deaths, so far, was available? 'that' could be very instructive.

[essentialinvestor] 21/2/2020 17:57

What really alerted me to the dangers of pneumonia was when John Sullivan
(Screenwriter) passed away aged 64 from viral pneumonia.

The death rate from this new virus is hopefully well under1%.

[exel] 21/2/2020 17:42

Thanks kenmitch - for your very balanced inputs! Just to be clear, in UK, the biggest 'certified cause of death' (dominated by the elderly - on average, our oldest demisers) is pneumonia. Flu is 'up there' too. When coronavirus (not to belittle it, for one moment!) takes out 80+ year-old people with 'underlying health issues' - we should perhaps not be overly shocked? If a 'demographic/by age analysis' of the global CV deaths, so far, was available? 'that' could be very instructive. I do not wish to be insensitive to the demise of ANYONE. ANY death is to be hugely regretted. But, we ALL must pass, at some point, and 80+ people will INEVITABLY be especially vulnerable to ANY new strain of pretty much 'anything' IF they have underlying 'health issues'. Am guessing more 'new strains' will be forthcoming globally, in all territories. Maybe the Chinese Authorities are 'especially sensitive' the 'this one' - IT having originated with them, on their watch.

[kenmitch] 21/2/2020 16:59

Coronavirus is almost certain to spread and with likelihood of very large numbers getting it too.

BUT it could well be a case of so what?

i.e the evidence so far with cases outside China is that for most getting it, the illness is mild and not even as nasty as norovirus or seasonal flu. And the world economy and cruise ships don’t grind to a halt for flu or norovirus. So why should they for Coronavirus?

BUT a concern is why then is China going to such extraordinary lengths to contain it. It could be that death rate there is now much much higher, and that that will soon apply in other Countries too. If that’s the case then look out! Our own health will become a bigger worry than any of our investments.

But for now market reaction is going with the way overblown case. We’ll know one way or the other within a month.

[essentialinvestor] 21/2/2020 16:41

Lol, had a few 3.4344.

To be fair GBP was increasingly strong as the day progressed
coupled with a dececidly risk off day.

South Korea taking emergency measures:


Bought a small amount of a SK Telecom yesterday, might not be great timing on that!.
Added another small amount today.

Might be fair to say the coronovirus progession outside China is looking more troubling than a week ago?.