Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[neilyb675] 17/2/2020 10:03

2.47, you were robbed

[essentialinvestor] 17/2/2020 09:40

Sold some at 3.4722. Markets brushing aside caution atm, let's see how
the rest of the week develops.

[exel] 17/2/2020 08:57

Thanks EI!

[essentialinvestor] 16/2/2020 17:58

Posted previously that we should have more clarity around about mid February,
however not sure that's turned out to be the case?.

Would hope the fatality rate is overestimated with many non serious
cases not registering in official stats.

Watched a few mins of the Chanel 4 special on Friday and Professor Neil Ferguson commented this was the virus he was most concerned about over his entire career.
That's quite a statement to make.

The Japan numbers are skewed by the Diamond Princess, so would tend to
watch a country like Singapore for disease progression.

[exel] 16/2/2020 16:40

Quite possibly, EI? (it may test circa 3.39) depending upon newsflow etc (nb from China & FE) over the weekend, of which I've managed to see very little, if any. If anyone has picked anything recent, please post it here. To be clear, I'm long HFEL, for divs & slow medium term growth, but could consider adding on further weakness? as I do like the Team - and recognise their defensive value-led cautious approach. That said, Mike & Sat will be tested, possibly like never before? to steer this portfolio through the current year, and beyond.

[essentialinvestor] 14/2/2020 15:52

Sold a few this morning at 3.4467, bought at 3.4203 yesterday.

Possibly test the recent 3.39 (offer) low next week?.

[essentialinvestor] 14/2/2020 15:48

I've got a couple of N95's.

That may admittedly appear hysterical, but have asthma
and even an ordinary cold can quickly cause problems.

For those lucky enough to have robust health there is hopefully
much less to be concerned about. I'm also using alcohol gel.

[epo001] 14/2/2020 14:35

Wildly off topic but also from the scmp site. DIY face masks:

[exel] 13/2/2020 17:25

me too, EI, my other FE funds are modestly re-rating back upwards (but still bumpy) and NAV here is now a tad above the MMV (for a change!). but there may well be another leg down? SO hard to tell. news flow is still negative, but also inevitably mixed, incomplete & shock-factor prone, too. Long view needed. ex

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2020 16:34

Had a few before the close.

Out of SOI.

[essentialinvestor] 13/2/2020 10:56

So another leg down may now be underway. If feeling brave will add in small
amounts.

[essentialinvestor] 12/2/2020 15:39

Had a very small amount today, to balance that I've sold the last
of my AAIF bought recently.


My gut call fwiw is there may be another leg lower, the sentiment swing from
fear to complancy has been pronounced, perhaps not all together justified.

[essentialinvestor] 12/2/2020 15:04

Those Japan cases include the cruise ship numbers?,
if that's the case the increase outside China is very low.
Now that can change, but it looks to be what the market is focussing on atm.

[neilyb675] 12/2/2020 10:06

348.00 - 349.00 (GBX) at 09:23:24
on Market (LSE)

[aleman] 12/2/2020 07:51

Cases outside China 518 +52 (11.2%).



China might or might not be getting to grips with it. The rest of the world does not seem to have realised it needs to work harder on containment.

[tim 3] 11/2/2020 20:37

Agree but think that is unlikely most developed nations are able to deal with these situations sadly is the very poor third world countries where it can spread uncontrollably.

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 19:48

Tim, yes worth keeping in mind.

The key to this is whether it takes hold in other countries.

[tim 3] 11/2/2020 19:03

In my experience situations like this are very often buy opportunities with scare stories effecting sentiment may add a few here.

[rcturner2] 11/2/2020 13:13

I think the mid case is currently that there will some disruption this year, that will be serious for some companies in the region. In this sort of market historical numbers are often dangerously misleading. There could easily be a raft of dividend cuts across many companies as they seek to preserve cash out of fear.

[aleman] 11/2/2020 13:02

Businesses won't necessarily fail. They'll miss bank payments. I thought it was misleading to suggest banks won't suffer much.

I would not be so sure it's a one-off event. It will accelerate the transfer of manufacturing from China to other countries that was already modestly under way. I'm not saying that will hit HEFL. HEFL has a more consumer bias than production. The investment managers at HFEL have stated they are positioned for the evolution of China into a growing consumer society. Disruption on the consumer side IS more likely to be one-off.

[aleman] 11/2/2020 09:23

466 cases outside China this morning suggest this will soon need containment action outside of China as well as in.