Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 06/2/2020 16:06

43,000 workers in Chinese owned mining complex on Sulowesi in Indonesia being quarantined.

Numerous international and private schools in Laos closed despite no confirmed cases.

75 people in isolation in India. 5,123 under home surveillance.

Lots more in this article:

[essentialinvestor] 06/2/2020 15:41

Remember there will be pnumomia cases outside of this new virus.

If around 50,000 people die of pnumomia in the US each year,
how many does it kill in China. Given their population and rates of smoking it
must be a multiple of that?.

Unless China is testing everyone, the reported figures are a rough approximation?.

[andyj] 06/2/2020 15:30

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

[neilyb675] 06/2/2020 14:21

A third patient in the UK has tested positive for coronavirus, England's chief medical officer has said.

[epo001] 06/2/2020 13:18

Off topic but I saw an interesting observation yesterday that one use of face masks is to defeat facial recognition. China has spent billions developing near universal facial recognition and it is now useless in large parts of the country (but of course people breaking quarantine stand out easily).

I guess we are back to normal when face masks are declared illegal.

[andyj] 06/2/2020 12:35

I wonder how the market will react when the 3859 described as seriously/critically ill are added to the numbers of those who have died. At the moment it seems to assume all of those will miraculously recover. Well, lets hope...

[andyj] 06/2/2020 12:28

I think the market, especially the US, has been consumed with Trump, Iowa, etc and the virus is not now front page news. There seems to be a perception that the virus has gone away. It continues to expand and kill and sow fear and uncertainty across the region. Vietnam has just announced that schools will remain closed for yet another week and is hurriedly building vast temporary hospitals. People cannot see how it can be stopped, only paused and there is an acceptance of inevitability about it spreading regionally.The impact on the economy can only be guessed at, but it is hard to see things returning to normal for the foreseeable future.

[aleman] 06/2/2020 12:06

redponza - things look to be continuing to worsen to me. The effects of China's lockdown are spreading through global port systems. Chinese flight cancellations have spread from passengers to freight. Higher international spread makes it look like more other countries will go into lockdown as some restrictions have already started to be implemented. Airlines are ceasing services to Hong Kong and Singapore. Japan and Thailand look like following soon.

[sll] 06/2/2020 11:53

Quick hello to Gateside and Hastings - highly valued correspondents from various (much) earlier mutual situations of interest.

Someone once described Golf as - "a 3 mile walk punctuated by disappointments."
How would you describe 'investing'?

Anyway, BW to both, and to all above for some very good inputs!

[my retirement fund] 06/2/2020 11:40

Hmmm, did you not read Alemans post? As someone in business trying to ship my finished goods and parts from China, he's to posting what I've known was going to happen for over a week.

I've added this link to my favorites

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[redponza] 06/2/2020 11:24

The rally may be related to the fact that things are not as bad as previously thought

[exel] 06/2/2020 10:45

Sadly, I can't add much content to the superb inputs from ALL posters above. This BB has literally been catapulted into orbit! after a very quiet preceding phase. So, thanks very much ALL for taking the time to update us, notably andyj!

It may seem a touch blasé at this point of emerging global crisis (yet another?) to point out that HFEL appears extremely well run. I spoke to the Chair and to both fund managers at the 23/1/20 AGM after listening very carefully to the preceding presentations.

Mike Kerley and Sat Duhra are very impressive professionals, whether from the podium or in personal conversation. They are also both relatively cautious and risk averse - which is not the same as suggesting that all their invested positions will remain immune from whatever market contagion sweeps across the wider FE region!

There is also core investor appetite for this stock. Just 'this week', a further £3.6m has been taken in for new shares, bringing the total in the current financial year to £26,892,025 at an average issue price (YTD since 1/9/19) of 359.52p - being a capital base uplift of 5.7%. We do need to remain balanced, while (ever more so!) managing our own short term expectations from this (or any) stock.

[aleman] 06/2/2020 10:06

I find it bizarre, too. The stories about stuff getting stuck in Chinese ports because they can't be unloaded or delivered are growing. New Zealand has even sent forestry workers home because lumber is not leaving ports. Rock lobster prices in NZ have halved after China cancelled an order for 200 tonnes of live crustaceans that was in a NZ port. Apparently they are going to try find alternative orders for half and let half go in the sea. It's all not good and it's getting worse. Ships that can't be unloaded can't get on with their next job. It's screwing up global supply chains, not just in China. Air freight out of China is starting to be cancelled,too.

[andyj] 06/2/2020 08:58

I find it utterly bizarre. Never have I known such a disconnect between what is happening over here and how financial markets are behaving over there. FCSS and HFEL are almost back to where they were before the virus began. Are you not getting the same news over there in the UK?

[neilyb675] 06/2/2020 08:56

up she goes

[aleman] 06/2/2020 08:18

The growth rate outside China is higher today. I wonder if this is a testing thing. If a plane traveller gets the bug, the people (s)he is sat next to disperse at the end of the flight and could be very difficult to trace. In China, they'll mostly just test the rest of the family, the workplace and the flats next door. People are not moving about so they're tested more easily and quickly. Maybe that gives a higher indicated spread rate compared to transient cases. Now that international cases are reaching more significant numbers and clusters are starting to appear in non-transient people, will confirmations be picked up more quickly in the non-transient people around them so we see an acceleration in confirmations?

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 15:47

WHO appear to say no confirmation of a cure (unsurprisingly)
so it looks like some progress made on the major antiretroviral
dosage, in combination with an influenza medication.

To treat potentially tens of thousands of patients might be
a a challenge, particularly if they are given intravenously.
At least it's some positive news.

Patients with impaired kidney or liver function may not have that option.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 15:36

Seconded Andy. just thanked you on that board.

[cousin jack] 05/2/2020 14:05

Just read your comments on the VOF board Andy. Very helpful indeed. I certainly won’t be adding to the ones I bought last year and will give thought to whether to continue holding, as there may be better opportunities elsewhere going forward.

[andyj] 05/2/2020 13:46

I sold my holdings in VOF in October. Just posted my views from here on the VOF board.

[cousin jack] 05/2/2020 13:00

Re. VOF: I invested about 12 months ago after Liberum highlighted the potential. Unfortunately its barely moved over the period, but Liberum recently highlighted it again. The interview below with VOF investment managers has some useful useful background for anyone considering an investment, as it covers more than trade war implications;

hxxps://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/how-vietnam-can-win-from-the-us-china-trade-war/a1256078

[neilyb675] 05/2/2020 12:28

345.00 - 347.00 (GBX) at 12:25:53
on Market (LSE)

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 12:22

I've sold 60% of my Friday and Monday buys, may be badly misreading this but
expect another leg lower, before a powerful upwards move.

[essentialinvestor] 05/2/2020 12:20

Andy lives there from what he's said.