Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 12/2/2020 15:39

Had a very small amount today, to balance that I've sold the last
of my AAIF bought recently.


My gut call fwiw is there may be another leg lower, the sentiment swing from
fear to complancy has been pronounced, perhaps not all together justified.

[essentialinvestor] 12/2/2020 15:04

Those Japan cases include the cruise ship numbers?,
if that's the case the increase outside China is very low.
Now that can change, but it looks to be what the market is focussing on atm.

[neilyb675] 12/2/2020 10:06

348.00 - 349.00 (GBX) at 09:23:24
on Market (LSE)

[aleman] 12/2/2020 07:51

Cases outside China 518 +52 (11.2%).



China might or might not be getting to grips with it. The rest of the world does not seem to have realised it needs to work harder on containment.

[tim 3] 11/2/2020 20:37

Agree but think that is unlikely most developed nations are able to deal with these situations sadly is the very poor third world countries where it can spread uncontrollably.

[essentialinvestor] 11/2/2020 19:48

Tim, yes worth keeping in mind.

The key to this is whether it takes hold in other countries.

[tim 3] 11/2/2020 19:03

In my experience situations like this are very often buy opportunities with scare stories effecting sentiment may add a few here.

[rcturner2] 11/2/2020 13:13

I think the mid case is currently that there will some disruption this year, that will be serious for some companies in the region. In this sort of market historical numbers are often dangerously misleading. There could easily be a raft of dividend cuts across many companies as they seek to preserve cash out of fear.

[aleman] 11/2/2020 13:02

Businesses won't necessarily fail. They'll miss bank payments. I thought it was misleading to suggest banks won't suffer much.

I would not be so sure it's a one-off event. It will accelerate the transfer of manufacturing from China to other countries that was already modestly under way. I'm not saying that will hit HEFL. HEFL has a more consumer bias than production. The investment managers at HFEL have stated they are positioned for the evolution of China into a growing consumer society. Disruption on the consumer side IS more likely to be one-off.

[aleman] 11/2/2020 09:23

466 cases outside China this morning suggest this will soon need containment action outside of China as well as in.

[neilyb675] 11/2/2020 07:36

from CNEL RNS released this morning:

As widely reported in the press, business activities in China are being disrupted by the Coronavirus outbreak and, whilst the Company does not currently believe this will cause a significant financial impact in 2020, the Board of CNE would like to provide shareholders with further information to understand the situation as it relates to CNE.

Firstly, during the Chinese New Year holiday also known as the Spring Festival, the Company usually closes its office and factory for a period of two weeks which this year ran from 23 January 2020 to 6 February 2020. In order to contain the Coronavirus, the authorities have requested that companies in our region should remain closed until 15 February 2020 and the Company will comply with this directive.

During this extended holiday period, the Company's Chinese employees are working from home and the Company expects minimal interruption to its office-related business activities and, specifically, minimal impact to its ongoing audit and resubmission application to the HKEx. The closure of the factory for an additional five working days is expected to cause only minor manufacturing delays which, with overtime, the Company expects to correct quickly during production in Q1 2020.

The Company and its employees have been playing an active role in supporting the local community with the eradication of the novel coronavirus. On 30 January 2020, the Company donated and distributed 5 tons of medical grade alcohol (75% abv ethanol produced by CNE clients) to local hospitals to assist with disinfection. This was distributed to 17 local hospitals including: First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen, the Second People's Hospital of Guangdong Province and the Guangdong Maternal and Child Health Hospital. Whilst the Company's clients mostly produce ethanol for renewable-fuel and potable markets, this illustrates the continuing demand for medical grade ethanol for sanitary applications.

Mr Yu, Chairman, commented "I am proud of our team for both supporting our local community and providing business continuity during this challenging time. The macroeconomy for our industry remains unchanged and, as we enter 2020 with a strong order book, we remain confident that the business will have continued success in 2020 and beyond. This will be detailed in our annual report which we expect to release in Q1 2020."

The Company will only provide further updates on the Coronavirus outbreak if it is expected to materially affect the performance of its business.

[exel] 10/2/2020 18:07

It has closed tonight at below last Friday's underlying asset value - so at a tiny discount compared to usual small premium. I expect volatility (both ways) to continue.

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2020 17:07

3.20 might be a gift longer term.

Not sure I see these that low, but never say never etc.

[panshanger1] 10/2/2020 16:37

No one rings a bell at the bottom but would like to add here £3:20 ?

[aleman] 10/2/2020 08:06

Mr Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the medical administration bureau of the National Health Commission, had earlier explained that the high mortality rate in Hubei can be attributed mainly to the fact that most of the critically ill patients are warded in the province's three main hospitals which are under strain from a lack of beds as well as professional medical staff.

According to medical experts and frontline doctors, 15 to 20 per cent of coronavirus patients could develop severe conditions, and among them 25 to 30 per cent worsen to critical condition, Caixin Global reported.

There has yet to be a widely agreed mortality rate for the disease. Several ICU doctors estimate that the death rate among patients in critical condition ranges from 10 to 40 per cent, meaning the overall mortality rate may be 0.6 to 1 per cent.

[aleman] 09/2/2020 14:11

So you think consumers and businesses will cease activity but banks will keep lending and not suffer dafaults? This is driving down GDP with each day the situation gets worse. Do you not remember what happened to banks in the last recession? I sold my LLoyds before they fell 95%. Some banks were nationalised. Why do you think China has provided emergency liquidity to banks if everything is fine? It's to cover the cash they are not collecting. If customers fall behind and can't catch up with payments later, it increases banks' short term debt while their asset base shrinks. If real estate loans default, repossessions flood the market and prices fall, putting some into negative equity and causing banks to make provisions. I think you should think again.

Hopefully, this outbreak will get sorted out before GDP gets hit hard and before loan arrears for a significant minnority get beyond a few months but, at the moment, the trend is not looking great.

[redponza] 09/2/2020 13:10

Maybe I can add my 2 cents here, the indices in Asia are actually quite heavily weighed towards financials (ie banks & real estate), those sectors are in fact not too affected by the crisis.

Of course I am not saying you should jump in, but think that stocks cannot go much lower from this level

[aleman] 09/2/2020 10:23

IF my calculations are correct, there's been a sharp jump in deaths and confirmed cases in China outside of Hubei yesterday. Last two days are 2/544 and 8/1125 and marginal rates 0.37% then 0.71%. The marginal death rate has been increasing for several days and has now jumped, making it look like it could come into line with Hubei. Numbers have been lumpy but if this trend continues, I'd expect the rest of China to go into lockdown very soon - and maybe even some countries bordering China on a precautionary basis.

There do seem to be more stories circulating about asymptomatic and low-symptom cases. Hopefully, there are lots more cases out there than are being picked up and death rates are much lower than headline figures suggest.

[andyj] 08/2/2020 02:46

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3049412/could-coronavirus-epidemic-trigger-china-led-global-recession#click=https://t.co/BMTcHIMHO4An interesting article about the economic threat of the virus. The western world seems to think that China will return to normal on Monday. Financial markets need to price in the reality that normality is not returning anytime soon to China and may soon be denied to other countries in the region, before I reinvest.

[neilyb675] 07/2/2020 11:46

343.00 - 348.00 (GBX) at 11:31:17
on Market (LSE)

[aleman] 07/2/2020 07:58

It's spreading more quickly outside China.

Cases 31428 +3164 (+11.2%). Deaths 636 +73 (13.0%). Total recovered 1541. Marginal death rate (2.31%). Cases outside China 267 +41 (+18.1%). Deaths outside China is 2 and 4 are critical.

Japan 86
Singapore 30
Thailand 25
HK 24
S.Korea 24

[essentialinvestor] 06/2/2020 16:49

China also beginning to push back more aggressively against what they see
as overly negative news reporting of the outbreak. Makes the daily
data more difficult to discern?.

Perhaps It's now the number of outbreaks outside of China that are key.