Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[pvb] 21/9/2020 15:51

As more local lockdowns begin, the hard truth is there's no return to 'normal'



The only certainty about the year ahead is the uncertainty. As a scientist, here’s my advice on how we can live alongside Covid

[aleman] 09/9/2020 08:15

This is interesting for all sorts of reasons even thought not directly linked to HFEL. Seroprevalence in this part of Brasil of 40.4% suggests just about herd immunity. IFR of 0.15% (0.17% after allowance for missed deaths) is very low and same as UK seasonal flu. Cases in public figures are estimated to be underrecorded by 22 times. Peak in deaths was May so peak in infections must have been April. It suggests Brasil peaked much earlier than common figures suggested due to delays in reporting deaths and late start to testing. There's been a sharp dip in global deaths in recent days. They're running at 5k per day and falling from a total of 160k global deaths per day on average for all causes. This could signal the end of wave 2 and maybe the end altogether - except this data suggests the peak was really earlier. How many other countries actually peaked much earlier than thought?

[aleman] 07/9/2020 11:41

UK household infection survey's estimated infection rate for England a month ago was 3800 per day and rising. The UK is averaging 7 deaths per day now and it's flat or still possibly falling. There is similar going on in other countries. Big rises in cases - modest or no rises in deaths. Covid is now so much like average seasonal flu that I've bought half my HFEL back. Even if it does break out again in those countries in Asia that have not had it significantly yet, the death rates are looking very modest now and not worth locking down for. There are 5000+ Covid deaths globally per day and it's falling. Usually about 160k die each day from all causes. Covid might expand a bit in the autumn like a normal coronavirus but the death rate now seems to be not far out of line with a normal coronavirus. It's not just a cold yet but it's no longer looking much worse than normal flu. Hopefully that will continue, and if it does, I might buy some more HFEL.

[pvb] 05/9/2020 14:04

...Well, there are enough 'theories' there to 'explain' just about anything anyone could ever wish for! ;-)

[aleman] 04/9/2020 08:44

You'll never know what is going on following our media and the statistically naive reporting it uses to create scare stories. India is reporting 150% more daily cases than a month ago - but only because it is performing 220% more tests than a month ago. The hit rate on testing peaked at 11.9% in July 25th. It's now 7.9%, suggesting virus prevalence has fallen by a quarter since peak. If peak prevalence was on July 25th, you'd expect peak deaths to occur around the end August. If you check your second link, you'll see deaths stopped rising and have basically plateaued since the 1089 figure on August 18th. You can find hit rates on testing here:



It's taking it's time to spread across rural India and there are probably some delays in reporting rural deaths but deaths in urban areas peaked ages ago. New Delhi deaths peaked back in June.



They only have (slowly) rising new cases India due to rapid rises in the number of tests performed. As the number of new cases reported continue to increase (85k) and the number of deaths do not (under 1k), they are starting to ask questions about why the virus is not turning out as deadly as expected. This trend is being repeated in other countries. The more they test, the more cases they find that were being missed before and headline simple death rates keep falling. If testing is not stable (most places increasing or chasing hotspots), you are better off following hit rates on testing to estimate prevalence.

The UK hit rate has been broadly flat for two months at around 0.6%. A doubling in testing has found a doubling in new cases. Virus prevalence has likely not risen. Given the rapid fall in deaths, and the fact that they've been opening more testing stations in hotspots, so overstating any increase, virus prevalence is more likely to have actually fallen. That would explain why UK deaths have continued to fall significantly and hospitals have continued to empty. (I'm from Bradford originally. It had 1000 cases in July but only 5 deaths in August. In August, increased testing has found 1100 cases in Bradford but there is now only 1 person in intensive care there and 9 other inpatients. Figures like that that would typically produce 1 death in the next couple of weeks so the death total looks set to fall below 5 in September. Increased testing is likely highlighting a mortality rate in Bradford of only 0.5% and falling. If you allow for the fact that Bradford is still not testing everyone and so is still probably missing most asymptomatic cases, It's quite possible that Covid mortality is no longer higher than an average seasonal flu there (0.15%). Increased testing is finding more cases than thought so recent mortality rates are turning out lower than expected, possibly even as low as flu in some places.

[aleman] 04/9/2020 08:44

They're doing something similarly naive with excess deaths. The underlying trend has been rising faster in recent years due to WWII baby boomers coming into their final years. Baseline deaths have been rising by about 7k per year. If you measure 2020 excess against only the 5 year average, you will get a higher figure than if you measure it against the more realistic rising baseline trend. Excess Covid deaths against the simple 5-year average, though technically correct, overstate the trend by about 400 deaths per week or 21k over the full year. Covid is not actually showing much higher mortality than a bad flu on current trends in excess deaths, though it is infecting lots more people than flu due to lack of previous immunity in the herd. (There is growing speculation that 50-60% of the population do seem to have some kind of immunity due to previous exposures to other coronaviruses in years gone by. If so, herd immunity might occur at only 20-30% exposure to Covid in the UK. This might explain why immigrants don't seem to fare quite as well as people that have resided in the cold-prone UK climate for many years, receiving a broader range of coronavirus exposures.).

[pvb] 03/9/2020 22:33

India logs record 83,883 Covid-19 cases in day



Cases reach 3.85m as expert claims emphasis on recovery rates fuels public apathy

"India now has the fastest growing Covid-19 infection rate in the world, and is only 100,000 cases behind Brazil, the second worst-affected country in the world."

[gateside] 27/8/2020 19:06

Agree that this is a good share, but I prefer AAIF, which I hold, as they have a greater weighting towards Singapore

[exel] 27/8/2020 19:00

Thanks zac, Mike is very solid and consistent - in his general approach, strategy and associated commentary (as is Sat) and this video is especially worth a view. Well shared! ex

[panshanger1] 27/8/2020 10:38

Opened a position here today for diversified income Liked statement from trust in June re: dividend sustainability

[aleman] 17/8/2020 18:35

New cases in India have peaked as predicted, despite a further 20% increase in testing in the 5 days since my last post. East Asian progress is mixed thanks to more restrictions. The good news is more cases in Europe are not being match by similar increases in hospitalisations and deaths even when the incubation period is allowed for, as in the USA wave 2. (See fig 1.) The weaker G614 strains predominate now and the death rate looks to have dropped closer to flu levels. This could be over soon, even if new cases keep rising - whether it's just increased testing or not.

[exel] 13/8/2020 20:28

quick point - andyj, if you're still here? HUGE thanks for ALL your posts. YOU were proved 125% correct in the various Covid assessments YOU fed in, early doors! that many (myself included) did not fully acknowledge, or act upon, at the time. As an old-fashioned guy, I try to give valid credit where it's due. This post is WAY overdue. Thanks Andy! You showed us the way. ex

[aleman] 12/8/2020 13:49

You've lost me now. I have no idea what you mean.

[pvb] 12/8/2020 13:42

...Use your OWN source for India. Switch from "Confirmed cases" to "Confirmed deaths".
Are you going to argue there is now 'more testing for deaths'?

[aleman] 12/8/2020 13:31

Of course - nowhere in the world is testing EVERYONE, pvb. You just have to dig up the most representative data from the erratic testing regimes being used everywhere, after being made aware that headline figures often give a misleading picture. Most swab testing regimes being used are not designed as a nationwide sampling system to measure overall prevalence.

[pvb] 12/8/2020 13:26

...So you want to impose your own spin on the data?

Your OWN link (to cases in India) says [My emphasis]:

"Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases
Shown is the rolling 7-day average. The number of confirmed cases
is lower than the number of actual cases; the main reason for that is limited testing.

[pvb] 12/8/2020 13:13

(Unlocked Sweden is getting about 1 death per day now. Why are they not getting much any more and why are the few new cases are getting not causing deaths like before. It's not down to the weather if the virus raging in Poland and Romania. The most likely explanation is herd immunity and the few cases in Sweden are from the Polish and Romanian migrant workers doing summer jobs.)

But Aleman, the Worldometers site is clearly showing the decline in new infections in Sweden! It is NOT showing that in India - the only one I followed up on of those you gave.

Anyway, Sweden has no relevance to HFEL.

It's not even clear global new cases are still increasing when you adjust for some of the massive increases in testing. It's possible that the real number of cases are now falling with much of the world more or less unlocked.

This is all supposition. This might be so... That might be so...

It is not, AFAIK, what the WHO is saying.

[aleman] 12/8/2020 12:31

If it helps, I'm not trying to run HFEL down. I'm only see a modest hit if China keeps the virus out. But I'm cautious. If you are, too, I think HHI provides an interesting diversification away from Asia on a similar yield of 7% but with a bit more discount (10%) and gearing (20%).

[whilstev] 12/8/2020 11:58

Thanks for your summary Aleman. Personally think you have got alot of it right, dont know about the herd immunity yet but it does seem that the death and hospitalisation rates from the virus are way down.