Henderson Far East Income Share Discussion Threads

[andyj] 26/2/2020 16:17

For me what happens in China remains the predictor of what might happen elsewhere. Cases there were exploding exponentially several weeks ago (incredibly ignored by the markets), but then just when it looked uncontrollable, it began to fade away and failed to gain consistent transmission in neighbouring countries. So far. The crucial part now is whether it returns as China returns to normal. Schools are scheduled to reopen in Vietnam and parts of China next week, but tentatively, one year group at a time. If it begins spreading again, then lockdowns, closures and panic will resume. That could signal a much more protracted and complicated battle against it and much greater damage economically, in the region and globally. On the flip side, if the trajectory continues downward then expect relief and pent up savings to fuel an immense burst of spending and partying. My forays into the market continue to be tentative, picking up the core holdings in my portfolio that have fallen 10% or more. Shell, BRNA, Hfel, Jagi, CAML and SSON. Others I am waiting for opportunities to add, aware that much lower prices may yet be reached and may yet be justified. We will find out soon!

[andyj] 26/2/2020 15:19

I do not think we have seen the bottom of this correction yet. At the moment the cases in the UK and USA are tiny and the fear of it coming is driving markets down. When, or if it comes, we will see panic soaring and markets collapsing. I am reserving cash for then, but of course it is not, by any means certain that it will begin spreading like it has in Korea or Italy. In most Asian countries it arrived with a bang and quickly faded to a whimper.

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 14:46

Tim, very nice call on US markets - hat tip ).

Wonder if the plunge protection team were active?.

Notice they wheeled out Larry Kudlow yesterday (after the close) with his bullish comments.

Whether this is transitory we will find out.

[tim 3] 26/2/2020 13:39

Nice to see people adding.

When you get panic like this I nearly always top up on quality, history shows that although you need to be patient it nearly always works out.

If you panic and head for the doors every time something like this happens then you are probably not best suited to the market and best putting your money somewhere else.imo.

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 13:22

Bruce Stout's market commentary in the MYI annual report is often worth a read,
whether you hold Murray International or not.

He's not an optimist!!. To be fair many of the points he highlights are valid,
however it's a case of how long CB's can keep the plates spinning.

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 12:44

MYI is still trading over NAV, might be worth a look around 1080, if available.

Had SOI and TEM down for adds, but did not hit my target prices on the offer.

[andyj] 26/2/2020 12:30

Sorry no, MIDD, FTSE 250 ETF.

[noiseboy] 26/2/2020 12:29

MI? Murray international?

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 11:03

Had a very small amount of Total SA before yesterday's close, but not minded
to add further atm.

Some of the UK leisure stocks are still looking optimistically priced to me,
given the backdrop.

Asian markets should bounce first. Is this a wider new bear market...I don't think so, however prescience still elludes me for some reason )).

[andyj] 26/2/2020 10:54

With an 8.25% guaranteed return I am happy if Shell spends the rest of my life at this price. Given the last time they cut the dividend was 1944, I am not particularly worried!

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 10:42

Oh my, never sell Shell eh, looks a bit like a pulled back elastic band atm.
Although longer term might be careful fwiw.

[andyj] 26/2/2020 10:28

Shell now my biggest holding, closely followed by SSON and MIDD. HFEL and CAML getting there!

[essentialinvestor] 26/2/2020 10:14

Well don't mind if I do - now my largest holding .

Not sure I should be admitting that on a public forum,
but prefer to be transparent with my posts.

[andyj] 26/2/2020 09:44

Absolutely to be expected. That is why we are seeing such bargains available. But it is temporary.

[aleman] 26/2/2020 09:34

Warnings from Diageo, Danone, Lufthanza and this one from Airport caterer, SSP:


In terms of the impact at the airports in which we operate across the region, in China we have seen sharp declines in both domestic and international air passenger numbers, which are currently running c. 90% lower YOY( year-on-year). In Hong Kong passenger numbers are c. 70% lower YOY and across a number of our other Asia Pacific countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and the Philippines, passenger numbers are between 25% and 30% lower YOY.

Elsewhere, we have also seen some impact at our airports in Australia, as well as at major travel hubs in the Middle East and India, although to date this has been less severe.

[hastings] 26/2/2020 09:23

I guess as growth stalls and profits decline, dividends will likely be reduced in many cases, so time to be wary of what now look like highly attractive yields.

[aleman] 26/2/2020 09:19

andyj - There were 450 new cases outside China in the last 24 hours and 10 deaths. I can see why you feel a bit less uncomfortable in Vietnam but the world is going to lurch (much more quickly) into recession and shares are mostly too high. Besides any health implications, the chances of bond defaults, credit crunch and banking crisis have increased greatly. Shares need to adjust to recession and financial stability worries.

[heialex1] 26/2/2020 08:56

Interesting insight. ThanksCheck out IUKD on a 6%. The UK market does seem cheap compared to other developed markets.

[andyj] 26/2/2020 08:38

A few weeks ago out here in Asia we were all panicking feverishly. We watched the numbers rocketing in China and talked of wills and evacuation. When the virus began appearing in the densely populated areas of Singapore, Thailand, India and Vietnam fear went through the roof. We waited for the explosion in numbers....but it did not happen. Vietnam has had no new infections since February 14th and numbers in other countries in the region, other than Korea, have barely moved. Fear is being replaced by caution. In our footsteps the West will tread.

[heialex1] 26/2/2020 08:29

If the virus turns out not to be a global pandemic - and I'm of the opinion that it won't - it has certainly presented some great buying opportunities. RDSB down 25% in a few months... I agree that loading up at 8% is a great opportunity.Same applies to HFEL... down 20% from 12 year highs.

[andyj] 26/2/2020 08:29

Just bought my second tranche at 3.21. One more tranche to buy.

[tim 3] 25/2/2020 22:29

US markets are gearing up for a massive bounce imo.

[essentialinvestor] 25/2/2020 21:41

In terms of why this held up today, Asian markets ex Japan had modest falls.
Tomorrow may be different.

[tim 3] 25/2/2020 20:42

Am a long term investor with these missed to many opportunities in the past trying to bag the bottom.Still think in a year or less the virus will not be a focus for the market.

[essentialinvestor] 25/2/2020 19:57

SOI and HFEL are not usually available at much of a discount.
That can change. AAIF and TEM can usually be bought well below NAV.
I'm not sure why the lack of discount with HFEL or SOI?.
Dividend yield and divi history in the case of Henderson might be a factor.


The spread in Italy will be difficult to contain, a case in Germany reported tonight.
Looks increasingly like a pandemic.