Gvc Share Discussion Threads

[brownie69] 16/9/2016 12:25

Out of my little trading play that i mentioned when we dipped to the 700p ish level. Nothing easier than trading into dips with this company.

On another note one of the house brokers have circulated re next weeks results...

We forecast €91m pro-forma EBITDA for H1/16 reflecting 8% revenue growth to €439m, as previously reported, and a 20.8% EBITDA margin (FY margin ex synergies). It accounts for c46% of our FY forecast reflecting the expected weight of synergies falling into H2. Given the terms of its current debt arrangements an interim dividend will not be declared.

We anticipate a positive outlook statement reflecting resilient current trading incorporating the latter stages of the Euros (July NGR +31% in cc) and some mixed results in the early weeks of the European football leagues. We expect the group to provide an update on the progress of the sportsbook migration and reiterate, at least, guidance on quantum and timing of synergies. This should underpin growth into 2017 which will benefit from bwin's recent relaunch in Greece partly offset by ongoing regulation and incremental taxation of other European markets; eg Belgium.

GVC has re-rated strongly as the group has outperformed market expectations for revenue growth, agreed a long-term B2B deal with Betfred, refinanced its debt and transferred to a Premium listing on the main market with subsequent entry into the FTSE 250 index from next Monday. It now trades on a 2017E EV/EBITDA of 9.2x when we forecast it will yield 3.4% following the resumption of dividend payments. This leaves it trading in-line with its UK listed peers, but as a pure-play online operator we believe a premium is warranted and expect the c42% valuation discount to PPB LN trading on a 2017E EV/EBITDA of 15.9x to be eradicated. Our DCF analysis suggests fair value of 1044p, 44% upside.

[mylands] 16/9/2016 10:03

Festario

Keep buying, even at these lofty levels it makes sense. You're simply joining all those others over the past few days who have bought millions!

Was hoping to see a further leg up ahead of the interims but doesn't seem likely to happen now with the share price stuck in a fairly narrow trading range.

[festario] 16/9/2016 09:44

Just nabbed myself another 2k, just by clearing out other 'dogs'No point holding anything other than GVC, in fact there never was.

[mylands] 15/9/2016 17:37

Close on another 2 million traded today. I would have thought we would be seeing some major holding RNSs.

[this_is_me] 15/9/2016 11:48

I have a '10 bagger or bust part of my portfolio' If one share out of 10 gets close to a 10 bagger, 2 or 3 more than double my money, several break even on average then I don't care if 2 or 3 go bust or crash to nearly bust.

The £ has been over valued for a while and is still overvalued.

I am delighted that we left the Evil Empire. Even in the short time since the vote my portfolio has done very well.

[timanglin] 14/9/2016 22:51

The difficulty with owning a share like Gvc, is that it gives you the 'walk on water' mental attitude. You think that you can buy any share and will go straight up. However it is a great difficulty to have.

[sogoesit] 14/9/2016 21:44

Ah, the file 13 disasters. I leave them there to remind me everyday how idiotic I can be.

[panic investor] 14/9/2016 19:25

Ahhhh the follies - you'll never be on your own there ! Grass greener etc

[festario] 14/9/2016 18:43

Indeed it was risky, a company I knew nothing about, but Investment Guru did!He urged me to put the £300k from a house sale, all in to GVC, but of course I couldn't do that.Instead, I popped £75k in, and have never regretted it.My biggest regret is selling about 10k of these along the way to fund the other AIM follies I got tempted by!

[trentendboy] 14/9/2016 17:26

Had many AIM busto shares. Portfolio effect. Winners like gvc help offset the lossesGvc was still high risk at the start remember. One German online casino and posting letters out etc.

[woodhawk] 14/9/2016 17:12

Festario,

I lost a large sum of money - well in excess of £100K - on AIM shares about 15 years ago. I have left them well alone ever since - luckily with the sole exception of GVC, which has by now recovered me most of that loss. My endeavours in the Footsie 250 and 100 have been exceedingly more profitable thus far.

[mylands] 14/9/2016 16:56

Festario

Sorry to hear that, reminds me of my little property company Formation Group, that I bought into years ago. The shares soared from my average price of 8p to 30p (why didn't I sell?) and then collapsed to below 1p! I held on, bought more and they rose to 12p!! Again I should have sold but didn't and now they are at 4p. It's the fickle nature of small cap AIM stocks.

I see with the close of business trades now posted we are up to nearly 3 million shares traded. The mm's must be loving this. Where to tomorrow?

[festario] 14/9/2016 16:48

Mylands, I know you are jesting, because 2.5pma day is a very large amount of cash for those of us who accumulated a large number of these all those years ago.Another of my small holdings went bust today, SBLM.I that certain large (notifiable) holders in GVC also had large stakes in SBLM.As it happens it turned into another AIM scam, and probably always was. Building a power station in a Chinese joint venture they announced last year. Yeah right.Only GVC has rescued me from this litany of AIM disasters.

[ltinvestor] 14/9/2016 16:23

Wait until the auction at 4.30 on Friday evening.Should be quite interesting.LT

[mylands] 14/9/2016 15:55

Festario

Only 2.5p higher a day?

Now that's a disappointment to those of us who have become used to much higher daily rises!

Over 6 million shares traded in the last two days, now that's some turnover.

[festario] 14/9/2016 15:51

... and now we see huge deals going through at an average price of 727.5p. It's obviously tracker funds accumulating, they will have to keep nibbling at it at about 2.5p a day higher... (hopefully)

[speedsgh] 14/9/2016 13:14

GVC mentioned in this 5min video interview. Bradley Gerrard (IC columnist) is positive on GVC going forward noting their appetite for further sector consolidation + potential for continued share price appreciation...

Gambling’s monopoly - [subscription required]

[mylands] 14/9/2016 08:48

Woodhawk

Back to the main topic, GVC.

Nearly 1.5% of the company changed hands yesterday. Has to be the tracker funds piling in ahead of the 250 inclusion. Great to see that even at the highest the share price has been since 2005 when it touched 884p shortly after it was floated, that serious investors think this is good value.

Like many other posters here, I remember the days when not a single share was traded, how times have changed! A big drawback for me of being invested in GVC was its illiquidity, when trying to sell or buy as little as 1,000 shares, was often problematic. Those days have long gone.

[woodhawk] 13/9/2016 23:09

Mylands,

I agree with you entirely, earlier this evening I said that this was - and I used the exact same words - the "phoney war" relative to Brexit. Who will have the audacity - or stupidity, to actually enact this folly?

[mylands] 13/9/2016 22:51

hawaly

You are correct, doomsday predictions were wildly over stated, but beware the 'phoney war' that is now going on. You ain't seen nothing yet until the start of negotiations, and my money is on a very, very difficult time for the UK. I hope I'm wrong, because if not we will ALL suffer.

Panic Investor

Boring it may be to you, but to me and my childen/grandchildren, it's not. It's a step into the unknown and everyone I have spoken to around the world cannot understand how we came to make such a huge decision with zero planning.

The one good thing is that GVC has limited exposure to the UK and as the pound falls our income will rise, a nice silver lining.

[timanglin] 13/9/2016 20:08

Next rns due 20th sept. We should begin to get an idea of costs and possible synergy savings. I would very much like one of the analysts to do a price comparison with other existing on line gaming companies, eg 888, Ptec, the merger has, up until now made this difficult. The constant re rating might, then, make more sense. Dyor, IMHO.

[panic investor] 13/9/2016 19:57

Talk about the stock - Brexit is now boring

[hawaly] 13/9/2016 19:22

Mylands - you may be correct about the future exchange rate, however:

If we were to compare "crowing levels" the Brexitiers will have been hugely eclipsed by the BBC, FT , Bank of England et al.

According to their largely "London Centric" based metropolitan doomsday predictions before the vote we should by now be looking for a second Marshall Plan to extricate ourselves from a complete National Economic collapse.

Let's see what happens - change is never comfortable - the remainers lost the vote, let's all hope we can rely on our self determination to make a success of an independent free trading nation future.

[mylands] 13/9/2016 15:42

So much for the 'strength'of sterling that the Brexitiers crowed about when it 'soared' from its low of around $1.30/£ to $1.34/£, now its back below $1.32/£.

I still think we will hit $1.20/£ before the end of the year.

Interesting to see that David Davies is telling the Lords that he will not report back to them on the Brexit negotiations while they are going on, as it would 'reveal our hand'. Doesn't it occur to him that the EU might do the exact opposite and over which he has absolutely no control.

Huge turnover today, topping 4 million shares. Some heavy buying with the share price up another 14 to close at 725p.