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GRID Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc

75.10
0.30 (0.40%)
Last Updated: 08:08:37
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc LSE:GRID London Ordinary Share GB00BFX3K770 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.30 0.40% 75.10 74.00 75.20 75.10 75.00 75.00 38,981 08:08:37
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty -100.1M -110.11M -0.1929 -3.88 426.88M
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc is listed in the Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GRID. The last closing price for Gresham House Energy Sto... was 74.80p. Over the last year, Gresham House Energy Sto... shares have traded in a share price range of 36.90p to 135.80p.

Gresham House Energy Sto... currently has 570,701,073 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gresham House Energy Sto... is £426.88 million. Gresham House Energy Sto... has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -3.88.

Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 901 to 925 of 1000 messages
Chat Pages: 40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
28/5/2024
09:25
A bit generalist I know, but presumably the inevitable Labour majority government (judging by the bookies' odds anyway) will be a good thing for energy storage infrastructure?
boystown
28/5/2024
09:15
Gas peaking power plants still being installed in the UK.
Small scale at 48MW, but it's the sort of thing I would have thought that BESS would be replacing by now.

hxxps://wartsila.prod.sitefinity.fi/media/news/28-05-2024-wartsila-power-plant-will-provide-critical-grid-balancing-as-uk-expands-its-renewable-energy-supply-3453414

llef
24/5/2024
18:51
@Edho1911 in some respects would have preferred it to be GRID as my NG holding has been cratered instead!!
nickrl
24/5/2024
17:43
Astonishing, but I can believe it.
cruelladeville
24/5/2024
14:46
altough it sounds crazy but it seems people are mixing it up with national GRID
edho1911
24/5/2024
14:09
@george its not and if it did would crater the share price further.
nickrl
24/5/2024
12:03
Why is the company doing a 34.7% discounted Right Issue all of a sudden?
george stobart
24/5/2024
11:56
@CC2014 GRID will have a 175m loan to service soon at 6.7% so 12m annual cost. Then the inv mgr is going to continue to fleece us on an increased asset base another c12m. So we need 24m income to break even or c24k/MW. Currently they are exceeding that although the higher rates initially experienced in early April have fallen back and my guestimate is a range 40-50k/MW (incl CM and allowance for longer duration) for testing ability to pay dividend. 1p/share equates to c£5.5m of free cash flow needed. So nominally things look good but its hard to gauge how much operating costs the opcos have that eats into the margin so I maintain that 2p divi looks most likely level given current run rate. Personally i dont buy forward power curves improving if anything likely to see more downward pressure as plenty of LNG is coming to the mkt over next couple of years. Of course the new unknown is exactly what a Labour govt would do but i maintain that if Reeves says we need to get growth into the economy she can't allow energy prices to be driven higher unless from external events.
nickrl
24/5/2024
11:18
CC2014 - you were very clear on DGI9 when you exited.

I guess my challenge here was (as I appreciate that investing can be a bit of an insular activity!) was the comment about 50% upside.

To my mind, there are much better 50% upside options where revenue is clearer/contracted, financial flexibility is greater and there are actual dividends and buybacks ongoing.

Portfolio/diversification is required, so I'm not putting all my eggs in the CORD basket, but happy to some of the air leasing funds, infrastructure, contracted renewables and some PE as decent quality with broadly a 50% return expectation.

cousinit
24/5/2024
08:45
That's a bit harsh CousinIT although a fair challenge.

I have made lots of posts about DGI9 but I'm not sure I ever fell in love with DGI9.

I sold all mine for about a half point loss as I posted at the time at 40p IIRC on the day DGI9 issued the outcome of the DGI9 tender.

With DGI9 I knew I was playing with fire and it was the riskiest thing in my portfolio. There were lots of red and amber flags over DGI9


I have reflected on your challenge and I don't see red flags here. There are some amber ones. Is the NAV over-egged. Probably. Is GH's fee reasonable given the NAV. No. The paying of unfunded dividend was another one.

However, what I do have is real time data on the revenue streams and visibility on ESO objectives.

My risk here is not what other posters keep bashing on about but some new technology which produces a step change in battery prices (Sodium based batteries?)
or potentially Lithium halving in price (although that does not look likely) or possibly at the margin lower takeup of electric cars or heat pumps.

Or looking at it another way. If there's no money to be made in batteries why is the worldwide buildout so strong? For sure buildout costs are lower than they were but GRID are doubling their MWh now at those low build out costs. In fact GRID's buildout costs are going to be even lower than competitors as they don't need to pay for a new grid connection for much of it. For sure older installations cost more and we should take the average but anyone buying now is paying only 57p a share. As Stiefel says that's significant less than new buildout costs.

It is my guess that the share price will stick down here for a while. I would expect a pickup as confidence arises as the new Mwh comes on stream and as volumes continue to pickup in the BM as skips slowly fall.

cc2014
24/5/2024
08:17
CC2014 - are you sure you're not falling in love with this one like you did with DGI9 at one point?
cousinit
24/5/2024
07:30
I guess the question is if NAV is not 130p what is it?

There are two major factors in the the NAV. The price curve and the discount rate.

Let's deal with the discount rate first. It's 10.8% so that's higher than nearly every IT I look at (actually I can only think of DGI9 which is higher and that's a basket case). I think that assumption prudent.

Then we have the price curve, where long term prices are above today's (but not recent previous years). For the sake of discussion let's say they are too high by quite a bit.

Let's call the NAV 90p instead. That's still a discount to NAV of 36%.

That's a decent enough chance the share price could go up 50% from here. The share price does not expensive to me. Cheap even.



Or I'll try another way. The NAV is based on the sum of discounted future cash flows.
So, if the revenue forecasts are so optimistic why did the NAV go up by 0.51p from winning new Capacity Market contracts in the last quarter. The answer is of course that the revenue in these new contracts is higher than whatever was being assumed in the previous NAV model. This for contracts won recently at uninspiring prices.


From where I'm sitting it's pretty simple. The share price has fallen and overshot to the downside as is often the case as people bail as they can take the pain no longer. The recovery always takes a while and goes in phases.


(Also take a look at the price of UK Natural Gas which as the marginal fuel sets the price of electricity in the UK. The higher it goes the better for GRID as it works the price spread. It's up over 50% since February. It's not just a UK thing either. It's global. US gas is up around 75% over the same period)

cc2014
23/5/2024
20:25
Except that the NAV assessed at 130p feels like a fantasy, not based on forseeable earnings is it? If it was genuine and the discount is credible yes it would be a reason to invest, then resolve to wind up and extract value.
marktime1231
23/5/2024
17:58
I agree with your comments marktime1231, but there is the sheer simplicity of the 57% discount as a reason for buying today.
boystown
23/5/2024
14:06
Not sure there is much of an investment case for a 60p stock which might or might not be able to cover a 2p dividend next year. Especially not one founded at 100p on the promise of 7% yield.

A quick check of the AGM notice it is very surprising to me there is no discontinuation vote, a disgruntled investor would have to table a special resolution for winding up at a GM. How come there is no automatic resolution to wind up triggered when the discount breaches x%? I guess it would all need to start with Schroders if they feel it is time to test appetite, but having invested much higher they will want to wait out in the hope of a long term recovery. No one likes to admit their mistake and take their punishment do they?

And no opportunity to vote out the mis-manager either, not even a vote on their remuneration.

You can only vote to not re-elect the chairman and board, and reject their remuneration, but is it their fault?

marktime1231
22/5/2024
12:19
@CC2014 some energy companies are building big BEDS for their own energy mgt trading accounts and wont be participating in the ancillary mkt. GRID have about half exposed to wholesale only unlike HEIT which have committed everything to the BM. They have benefited from having 2hr units but with GRID and others catching up i suspect the pricing there will be commoditised later in the year. Also even with high wind the grid cant move the power South so its constrained off and thus less need for frequency response.
Agree with @CC2014 that short term this isn't going to improve and see little prospect of more than 2p dividend from next year so share price is in the right ball park.

nickrl
22/5/2024
12:13
Gross portfolio cash generation Q1 2024 of 1.13p. (1.70p in Q1 2023)

That cash flow more than wiped out by costs. I think debt interest alone is about 0.46-0.47p per quarter to which add management fees, transaction costs, financing charges, swaps etc in total something like another 1p. Oh, and dividends of 1.75p per quarter ... ahem, NOT!

In the interests of performance transparency GRID told us on 24 April portfolio revenue in Q1 was averaging £41.5K/MW. Which links cash flow per share to the revenue rate. It puts breakeven at £55K/MW before any dividend, or a target £120K/MW if you want that 1.75p dividend back. Not likely.

So, in the interests of performance transparency, the first question at the AGM should be what has portfolio revenue averaged since March ... a blip up to £71.1K/MW in the first half of April until the wind died, but then how much?

marktime1231
22/5/2024
11:18
That's a 4 hour battery they gone for. I guess they can build in small chunks and keep adding as demand appears.

I'm holding to my view of why would you build any battery storage in the UK with prices were they are. ESO are going to have to provide lots of capacity market contracts at decent prices to move the needle.

cc2014
22/5/2024
10:51
Teesside BESS announced. Will it get built? Doubt it. https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24336523.battery-storage-plant-teesworks-part-1bn-project-site/
cruelladeville
22/5/2024
07:44
Indeed; the share price v NAV performance graph is amusing; www.theaic.co.uk/companydata/gresham-house-energy-storage/performance
boystown
22/5/2024
07:33
NAV up slightly. You have to laugh
cc2014
21/5/2024
12:47
One cannot blame GSF for taunting their rivals. GSF do seem either by luck or judgement to have built a portfolio generating an order of magnitude better revenue performance.

As for GRID, it's all going to come down in the end to how much of the huge competitor pipeline actually gets built. We know the schemes in place are just about enough to beat the "fall short scenario".

Personally I cannot see enough getting built based on current revenue streams compared with the cost of lithium and ultimately I see GRID sitting on assets which will be scarce.

However, the deeper question for me is that revenues are likely to get worse before they get better. Alot of capacity will come on stream by the end of the year. Will the market look past that or take fright? I have no idea. For sure we've found out many of the analysts don't know what they are doing.


Or put another way, does the crazy low pricing in the UK sort itself out due to supply and demand. GSF's revenue in Ireland was nearly 2.5x that of the UK per MW/yr and over 2.5x in Texas last year. Now the gap is even bigger. Surely the investment will just flow to where the returns are and that isn't the UK.

cc2014
21/5/2024
12:10
GSF taunting rivals who do not have their diversity.

After a windy couple of weeks in early April conditions since have been dire. One day recently the entire installed UK wind power capacity of over 28GW was contributing less than 1GW. Most of May has been exceptionally calm. If surplus wind is what was driving income recovery in the storage market it must have slumped again.

UK energy demand has also been light, easily met from thermal gas, imports and other sources, so wholesale prices have not been especially volatile. Solar has been performing but not wind. What is the lesson ... co-locate extended storage with solar farms, making use of existing grid connections, so that some daily generation can be saved up to cover the evening peak demand.

Right. GRID have said they will not be updating the market at the AGM on 20 June but will field questions. Where to begin?

marktime1231
21/5/2024
07:16
GSF had this to say:


"Across the sector, it is increasingly apparent that the range of strategies employed by asset owners are yielding increasingly different financial outcomes, with Gore Street producing revenues c.3x of our peers and lowering the volatility of those revenues by 50%. In the GB market, participants largely act as price takers, resulting in similar revenue generation across asset owners. However, it is clear that the impact of capital allocation strategies, whether based on gearing levels, geography concentrations or capital expenditure, is a key component of a company's long-term viability. Within the sector, we have seen reports of a resurgence in GB revenue based on annualising a very limited data set of revenue over a 15-day period in April. It should be noted that GSF's estimated average revenue of £15.1 / MW / hr (or £133k / MW / year) for the past 12 months is almost double that of what peers considered as an annualised highlight based on 15 days of trading in GB in April (equating to c.£70k / MW / year)."

spectoacc
20/5/2024
21:52
@PJ84 the euphoria of increased revenue during March/April hasn't been repeated during May and income has fallen back again according to bessanalytics. Although to be fair they only have visibility of the BM registered assets, which is half their fleet, so maybe the other half have done better in the wholesale mkt. Anyhow lets see if GRID are true to their word about greater transparency and provide an update at the AGM.
nickrl
Chat Pages: 40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  Older

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