Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 21/3/2024 12:52

Aha so the buyback mandate kicks in at 50p. Worth knowing that is the support level in case you were eyeing the falling share price and wondering when and whether to invest.

[williamcooper104] 19/3/2024 12:05

I think we have an idea of where the bottom with these things can be via DGI9

[cc2014] 19/3/2024 12:00

I'm sitting here looking at the share price and the trade flow and wondering where this is going to bounce.

Bounce it must eventually and sometimes the bounce comes out of nowhere.

I am glad to somehow have avoided this one.

[igoe104] 18/3/2024 14:55

ESO relaunched bulk dispatch for battery energy storage units in the Balancing Mechanism on 8th January 2024. In the eight weeks since, there has been a 47% increase in weekly dispatched volume compared to eight weeks before.

[nickrl] 15/3/2024 19:20

@igoe104 has been a slight tick up on revenue BESS have been earning but still way down on what it was 12mths ago so not yet clear what the longer run income stream benefits may be. Also this predates the move to 30m batteries at the start of this week.

[marktime1231] 15/3/2024 13:16

Well I have looked through the trades and it all seems to be down to a couple of chunky offloads, the first late yesterday morning and another one today. A corp investor has run out of patience or decided to switch horses, not waiting for the news or has an inkling what is coming who knows.

[hpcg] 15/3/2024 13:01

More and more companies are offering some variation on off-peak pricing, which will moderate demand peaks. I am close to switched off 16:00-19:00, at least in significant quantities.

[marktime1231] 15/3/2024 12:46

Slam your fingers in the desk drawer and wait until there is actual news (audited statement not blarney) before deciding to buy in to a hopeful recovery scenario. How much covered dividend can they realistically sustain?

[nickrl] 15/3/2024 12:30

UK long run power prices are not going to have the variability that drives revenue unless there is another geo political event so all BESS operators income is going to be squeezed. Yes some have capacity market payments which is a salvation otherwise the business model would be completely broken but current income levels wont support much of dividend in the foreseeable future. GRID at least don't have a big debt cloud hanging over them like HEIT which makes resumption of dividends there even further away.

Not a current holder but sub 30p will tickle my interest.

[cc2014] 15/3/2024 11:40

It's all a bit odd but imho it should never have bounced as far as 63p. So, the fall isn't as large as it seems imho.

What we are seeing though is that there is absolutely no support on the way down which kind of makes sense to me as I have no idea why it bounced higher that say 57p.

It's all a bit tricky imho. Given the current rates for battery revenue I can't see anything other than the next dividend getting binned too and if that happens we have another step down.

Perhaps Jefferies have got their red pen out again?

[williamcooper104] 15/3/2024 11:33

They are all different but somethings up with GRID - these aren't macro induced falls - could be one large shareholder liquidating Can't see any news that warrants it

[hpcg] 15/3/2024 09:42

These are all different vehicles with their own peccadilloes, so trying to treat as one entity, like supermarkets, is erroneous. Where they would tend to move together is the ebb and flow of interest rates, and clearly on current macro data US rates are not dropping until late summer at the earliest.

[wassapper] 15/3/2024 09:29

GSF capacity also set for a major increase over 2024 (which will sort out that dividend cover)

[cc2014] 15/3/2024 09:08

The difference between GRID and GSF is where they are operating.

GSF are on ERCOT in the US. As you can see from the article prices reached nearly £800/MWh on 4th March whereas we are plodding along at about £5 in the UK.


Now the US is a big place and although I know GSF are on ERCOT I don't know if they are in the right part of ERCOT and took advantage of this or not but it demonstrates the difference in revenue by jurisdictions.

[george stobart] 14/3/2024 23:20

Is Muddy Waters indeed looking to publish full details of the GRID scam as Mr John Smith from Investor Centre Ltd suggested?

[nickrl] 14/3/2024 21:41

As HEIT goes up GRID goes down.

[marktime1231] 14/3/2024 21:15

GSF was able a couple of days ago to announce a sustained 2p quarterly dividend, albeit one which appears to be only about 75% covered by current cash flow. They also took some NAV medicine by de-ramping their expectations for GB-based revenues, better reflecting the dire income in recent quarters. And yet the net movement on their NAV was only a shave down.

Has GRID been exposed by that release from GSF? Or has someone in the GRID camp whispered of a rotten report on its way by 5 Apr, and a painful cut to the dividend? Heads rolling perhaps because we have been misled and can't trust them any more?

GRID tumbling this afternoon but GSF ending firmly up.

[dickiehhh] 14/3/2024 18:41

As usual it looks like some "news" has been leaked out. Institutions probably selling. Let's wait for the RNS over the next two weeks to tell us private investors what's going on. Just like what happened earlier this year Shameful really

[cruelladeville] 14/3/2024 15:42

Good grief. What's happening now to GRID? I thought the worst was over. Obviously not.

[nickrl] 23/2/2024 08:28

@igoe Guest is right that BESS assets can hunt around the various revenue streams on offer at the push of a button but the CM revenue stream is the only certain one. As we've seen over last six months the value of those other revenue streams has dramatically collasped and with so many new BESS assets being commissioned its difficult to see any meaningful improvement. Lets see if their forecasts are more realistic against this backdrop.

[igoe104] 23/2/2024 07:55

battery energy storage systems (BESS), is pleased to provide shareholders with an update on the 2023 Capacity Market auction results for the portfolio.

 

The latest T-1 CM auction concluded on 20 February 2024, clearing slightly higher than expected at a price of £35.79/kW. The Company has secured additional 1-year contracts across 13 of its Projects with a total derated capacity of 90.491MW. In total, the additional contracts are expected to generate £3.2mn of additional revenue from October 2024 to September 2025.

 

In the valuation process for the Company's assets, CM revenues are only included where contracts are held at the date of valuation, therefore these new contracts are in addition to current revenue assumptions and are accretive to NAV. The NAV benefit from these contracts will be recognised at the next valuation date of 31 March 2024.

 

Ben Guest, Fund Manager of Gresham House Energy Storage Fund plc, said: "We're pleased with these results from the latest annual Capacity Market auction, as well as their expected positive contribution to our NAV from 31 March 2024.

 

"One of the great attributes of battery energy storage systems is their flexibility. We can swiftly and remotely configure our software to tap a wide range of potential revenues available to BESS without needing to make any physical changes to hardware. These revenues include both contracted income such as the Capacity Market auction results we're announcing today, as well as merchant, or trading, revenues."

 

[nickrl] 22/2/2024 21:40

@marktime people think it’s cheap but it’s not but won’t stop them buying so a dcb but let’s see how up front they are when fy results are released.

[marktime1231] 22/2/2024 17:18

From studying the ESO spreadsheet it seems GRID submitted around a dozen of its smaller BESS in to the T-1 Capacity Market auction, it will be up to management to tell us which were successful and what the financial impact will be. HEIT observed that the price struck was 40% lower than last year but higher than expected. The big winners appear to be larger longer duration BESS including new installations.

My conclusion is that this is neither here nor there for GRID, if it had been a windfall bonus we would have heard already because they are so desperate for good news.

Notably HEIT have renegotiated their group financing with a modest reduction in near term rate, presumably to help get them through the income slump. It remains to be seen when and how the sector will restore income to justify their current valuations. I don't see what is causing the recovery in GRID share price from 50p, in the same way I couldn't see why it recovered from 80p to 110p. Hopeful optimism and "bump in the road" thinking, because you have to and ...?

We should wait for solid evidence of financial performance recovery and bankable outlook, ignoring fanciful asset valuation, before concluding this has been oversold.

[igoe104] 22/2/2024 13:56

Prices were extreme last year, Nicholas. GRID are doubling their capacity, so at Current share price levels these look extremely cheap.