Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[cc2014] 03/4/2024 15:23

I have loaded up now. My gut says the share price shouldn't be here.

(Trouble is there are plenty of others on which I have the same thought process)!

(And plenty where I see the same irrational selling as here)!

[ghhghh] 27/3/2024 15:06

Is not replacement cost a better metric for determining value rather than some arbitrary NPV driven valuation?

Ultimately it all boils done to supply demand. If roll out of new storage dries up because revenues too low then revenues must rises.

REITs appear easier/safer as new build costs generally trending up with inflation whereas battery storage looks most exposed to reducing battery prices and improving storage capacity.

[nickrl] 27/3/2024 09:54

@hcpg GRID could help themselves if they at least presented the data more like UKW do who operate the same sort of "financial engineering" model where they at least give you some insight into the financial and operating performance of the aggregated portfolio. Its not proper consolidated accounts but it gives you feel that this is the income thats being generated by these assets so gives you some confidence that the valuations the trust is putting on the assets is realistic especially as they all do their own valuations which i find a bit too incestuous. At least REITs have external valuerers.

[hpcg] 27/3/2024 08:41

This is in the "too difficult" bucket for me. It isn't obvious the price is wrong, and the result of forced selling. Thus one needs an exemplary understanding of the economics of the underlying to be able to estimate future returns, which I certainly don't have.

[nickrl] 26/3/2024 20:16

According to bessnalytics there has been a modest improvement in revenues over last month and Modo Energy also saying the new balancing reserve product from the ESO is helpful for BESS as well. Early days but at least these may now generate sufficient income to cover costs although whether any dividend ever gets paid again we will have to wait and see.

[george stobart] 26/3/2024 13:11

Is the share price collapsing because of the chattered Muddy Waters report?

[cc2014] 26/3/2024 12:20

I have been buying down here.

Fingers crossed.

[cc2014] 21/3/2024 13:03

GRID bought some at 52p in the early days of the buyback

[marktime1231] 21/3/2024 12:52

Aha so the buyback mandate kicks in at 50p. Worth knowing that is the support level in case you were eyeing the falling share price and wondering when and whether to invest.

[williamcooper104] 19/3/2024 12:05

I think we have an idea of where the bottom with these things can be via DGI9

[cc2014] 19/3/2024 12:00

I'm sitting here looking at the share price and the trade flow and wondering where this is going to bounce.

Bounce it must eventually and sometimes the bounce comes out of nowhere.

I am glad to somehow have avoided this one.

[igoe104] 18/3/2024 14:55

ESO relaunched bulk dispatch for battery energy storage units in the Balancing Mechanism on 8th January 2024. In the eight weeks since, there has been a 47% increase in weekly dispatched volume compared to eight weeks before.

[nickrl] 15/3/2024 19:20

@igoe104 has been a slight tick up on revenue BESS have been earning but still way down on what it was 12mths ago so not yet clear what the longer run income stream benefits may be. Also this predates the move to 30m batteries at the start of this week.

[marktime1231] 15/3/2024 13:16

Well I have looked through the trades and it all seems to be down to a couple of chunky offloads, the first late yesterday morning and another one today. A corp investor has run out of patience or decided to switch horses, not waiting for the news or has an inkling what is coming who knows.

[hpcg] 15/3/2024 13:01

More and more companies are offering some variation on off-peak pricing, which will moderate demand peaks. I am close to switched off 16:00-19:00, at least in significant quantities.

[marktime1231] 15/3/2024 12:46

Slam your fingers in the desk drawer and wait until there is actual news (audited statement not blarney) before deciding to buy in to a hopeful recovery scenario. How much covered dividend can they realistically sustain?

[nickrl] 15/3/2024 12:30

UK long run power prices are not going to have the variability that drives revenue unless there is another geo political event so all BESS operators income is going to be squeezed. Yes some have capacity market payments which is a salvation otherwise the business model would be completely broken but current income levels wont support much of dividend in the foreseeable future. GRID at least don't have a big debt cloud hanging over them like HEIT which makes resumption of dividends there even further away.

Not a current holder but sub 30p will tickle my interest.

[cc2014] 15/3/2024 11:40

It's all a bit odd but imho it should never have bounced as far as 63p. So, the fall isn't as large as it seems imho.

What we are seeing though is that there is absolutely no support on the way down which kind of makes sense to me as I have no idea why it bounced higher that say 57p.

It's all a bit tricky imho. Given the current rates for battery revenue I can't see anything other than the next dividend getting binned too and if that happens we have another step down.

Perhaps Jefferies have got their red pen out again?

[williamcooper104] 15/3/2024 11:33

They are all different but somethings up with GRID - these aren't macro induced falls - could be one large shareholder liquidating Can't see any news that warrants it

[hpcg] 15/3/2024 09:42

These are all different vehicles with their own peccadilloes, so trying to treat as one entity, like supermarkets, is erroneous. Where they would tend to move together is the ebb and flow of interest rates, and clearly on current macro data US rates are not dropping until late summer at the earliest.

[wassapper] 15/3/2024 09:29

GSF capacity also set for a major increase over 2024 (which will sort out that dividend cover)

[cc2014] 15/3/2024 09:08

The difference between GRID and GSF is where they are operating.

GSF are on ERCOT in the US. As you can see from the article prices reached nearly £800/MWh on 4th March whereas we are plodding along at about £5 in the UK.


Now the US is a big place and although I know GSF are on ERCOT I don't know if they are in the right part of ERCOT and took advantage of this or not but it demonstrates the difference in revenue by jurisdictions.

[george stobart] 14/3/2024 23:20

Is Muddy Waters indeed looking to publish full details of the GRID scam as Mr John Smith from Investor Centre Ltd suggested?

[nickrl] 14/3/2024 21:41

As HEIT goes up GRID goes down.