Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 17:36

Its like the market has already priced in a nasty profit warning, even though its not happened. I've seen afew profit warning from companies this year, and they still haven't fallen as much as these.. 🤷

[jpatara3] 25/1/2024 16:54

Jefferies note has certainly intensified the negative news that is about to come out regarding GRID. If GRID can't pay dividends or have to reduce them they should come and say it. It wouldn't deter me from my investment as battery storage is required in the U.K. to balance supply and demand.

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 16:13

I'm getting intouch with the company to get to the bottom of the situation. 36% fall in 25 days, and trading 51% below the NAV needs explaining?

[waterloo01] 25/1/2024 15:54

There is a Jefferies note out on the sector. Not my find but is on GSF thread.

[igoe104] 25/1/2024 15:49

Nickemer no point guessing, we want to see facts. The board seem confident of covering the dividend. So no reason to 2nd guess things until we see it in writing.

Chair John Leggate said: "In particular, strong dividend cover in 2021 and 2022 has allowed us to maintain our committed dividend increase for 2023, despite reduced revenues this year. As more projects come online and installed capacity increases later in 2023 and into 2024, we expect full run-rate dividend cover to return."

[nickelmer] 25/1/2024 15:10

Highly likely to be forced to cut the dividend going forwards

[mr george stobbart] 25/1/2024 12:51

Is it true that this ponzi is going bust any day now?

[igoe104] 17/1/2024 19:46

Big discount to the NAV nearly 41% now.

Just shows folks panic in a falling market..

[dickiehh] 17/1/2024 16:13

No news announcements from the company but yet share price is down 25 percent since the start of the year. Hmm ...

[nickrl] 17/1/2024 13:51

@CC2014 looking at Bloxwich battery (not the biggest but just too much data on Elexon and you can't filter by batteries currently) they had it on charge between 0100-0600. It was then instructed to provide 41MW for 15m 0739-0754 (we wont know exactly what happened until early Feb as actual gen data is delayed) its offer price was £112MW/h of course how much it bought the energy for isn't known but it was offering to buy at £50/MWh during wee hours but that is for the ESO to sink too much generation and they didn't ask them to.
So this morning they would have sent out 10MWh and got 11k for it they were also instructed upto 13MW for 10m later on so another few k. Will look again later to get an all day picture and look at what it might be making.

Its BMU ID is E_ARNKB-1 and its managed by Arenko Cleantech Limited

[nerja] 17/1/2024 12:09

Thanks for that CC2014 , coming close to last low if that fails to support it then i think quite a lot of stops will be taken out.

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:54

#561. Someone is selling GRID(not just GRID but lots of stuff) and is struggling to find significant buyers. I have been watching GSF more closely. Two sellers in size on GSF over the last few days but there have been plenty of buyers and I suspect one seller finished and other is happy enough to shift their volume slowly.

On GRID no buyers in size thus price is still in trouble and sellers are having to continue to drop the price to encourage buyers. Possibly though it's having the opposite effect as maybe some longs are capitulating.

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:47

@nickrl. I feel like I'm struggling with lack of information on the delta you describe. If I try to consider for example the balancing mechanism which had the step change in mid December which was supposed to generate lots more revenue for battery storage I have the following:

None of GRID/GSF/HEIT have updated the market. GRID aren't exactly shy coming forward so I assume it isn't working out as well (yet?) as expected. The share price would seem to reflect this. If I look at the BESS figures for the last month, I see a positive outcome. It does look significantly more revenue for this but there have been periods in the past with such numbers so whilst the numbers seem optimistic, I'm not sure the numbers are conclusive. On the other hand it wouldn't surprise me that the National Grid are going slower than promised and some balancing is still being done manually through gas - old habits are hard to shift.

[nerja] 17/1/2024 11:40

What do you think CC2014 ,seller or shorter

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 11:25

The 2k and 10k's are orders hitting the MM's which are sitting on the book.

3 of the MM's deal place lumps of 10k on the book. 8 others offer lots of 2k. 1 offers 5k.

[nickrl] 17/1/2024 11:24

@CC2014 im negative GRID still not sure on HEIT as it never intended to rely upon ancillary services. What we don't know yet is how much revenue can be generated from buying low and selling back high as that opportunity is pretty well there everyday but at what delta(£/MWh) they need to generate income im not clear.

[nerja] 17/1/2024 11:08

The 2k and 10k is back today!

[cc2014] 17/1/2024 10:18

Here's a copy of a post I put on GSF.


Figure 6 is interesting.

The annual demand forecast for stationary storage for 2024 is 2GWh
The same thing for 2026 is 4.2GWh

Modoenergy shows the installed capacity now at 4.6GWh. I.e. double what we need now and already enough to go right through to 2026.

To add to this the additional capacity that is planned to come on stream in Q1 alone is about another 1GWh. (about because I haven't written down the figure but it's about right). Everyone knows two thirds ish of that will be delayed into Q2 due to grid connection delays.


Of course the info above is not new info - it's been known for months.

I hold GSF and I'm holding due to the strong revenues from the US and Ireland. I don't fancy GRID at at all because it continues to plan to invest in a saturated market in the UK

[cruelladeville] 17/1/2024 09:25

Looks well oversold to me at ~90p.

[nickrl] 16/1/2024 10:22

@CC2014 in the ancillary services market which is where GRID made the original investment case pricing has all but collapsed last week albeit in times of high system demand there is much lower need for it as so much gas generation is on the system. The more renewables become dominate generation the more ancillary services the ESO will need but its saturated at the moment. So trading in wholesale market and the BM will become prime source of revenue and until any of them give a trading update its difficult to 2nd guess whats happening. You can lookup ESO BM actions in Elexon and for sure the number of actions has gone up considerably and they are for smaller volumes but exactly whose assets they are isn't clear because majority of BESS assets are managed by third parties and so show by them and their mainly from Statkraft Markets Gmbh which i don't believe GRID use.

[cc2014] 16/1/2024 09:15

C de V

The UK battery storage market has built far too much capacity and it is evident in the £ per MW Hr.

More frustratingly GRID/HEIT, GSF to a lesser extent and I assume others are continuing to build more as they spend up to their borrowing limits.

Here are the £ per MW Hr figures from GSF for the quarter to the end of Sept. I've read them off a chart so they aren't exact. They do vary by season etc. but you get the idea.
UK £16
Germany £20
Ireland £40
Texas £140

But what's probably more important for GRID is the UK for qtr end 2022 which was £40
As far as I can tell this quarter's numbers for the UK are even lower than £16. Much lower.


I do not think these battery storage trusts should be building out any more as they are just screwing up their own income in the UK. Just my view of course.

I do not hold GRID

I find Gresham House generally seem to be working too much in their own interests rather than those of shareholders.

[cruelladeville] 16/1/2024 08:31

But only a month ago GRID said - "We have seen an increase in actions in the Balancing Mechanism (BM) for BESS assets. It is too early to point to the specific revenue impact, but the initial indications are positive and, based on provisional data, are expected to lead to increased revenue opportunities for our assets." I can't see any reason for the very poor recent share price performance.

[income investor] 15/1/2024 18:33

GSF similarly down this year. Perhaps Mr Market knows something we mortals don't? Perhaps National Grid's new system not paying out well for battery storage??

[cruelladeville] 15/1/2024 18:13

I can't see any reason for the very poor recent share price performance here? Cheap as chips?

[nerja] 15/1/2024 17:17

Lots of 10k and 2k trades been going through the last couple of weeks, seller shorter only time will tell but until they stop this goes down further ,imho