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GRID Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc

75.10
0.30 (0.40%)
Last Updated: 09:36:39
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc LSE:GRID London Ordinary Share GB00BFX3K770 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.30 0.40% 75.10 74.00 75.10 75.20 75.00 75.00 220,588 09:36:39
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty -100.1M -110.11M -0.1929 -3.89 426.88M
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc is listed in the Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GRID. The last closing price for Gresham House Energy Sto... was 74.80p. Over the last year, Gresham House Energy Sto... shares have traded in a share price range of 36.90p to 135.80p.

Gresham House Energy Sto... currently has 570,701,073 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gresham House Energy Sto... is £426.88 million. Gresham House Energy Sto... has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -3.89.

Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 926 to 950 of 1000 messages
Chat Pages: 40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
07/6/2024
11:27
Assuming GRID can capitalise on this, tomorrow's electricity pricing should allow batteries to make a stonking profit.

Prices are -11 (ie negative) or lower for 3 hours from midday, and are over 80 for 3 hours in the evening.

hxxps://data.nordpoolgroup.com/auction/n2ex/prices?deliveryDate=2024-06-08&currency=GBP&aggregation=Hourly&deliveryAreas=UK

llef
06/6/2024
11:50
CC2014 not sure if you have me filtered for some reason but posted the same yesterday post 895.
pj84
06/6/2024
10:40
Too much to paste but some snippets:

Christopher Brown, an analyst at JP Morgan Cazenove, estimated the deal with Octopus could lift GRID’s annual revenues to about £70m and see it reinstate a covered dividend of 4.7p per share, more than expected though well below the 7.35p it originally aimed to pay last year.

‘Overall this is an interesting transaction that locks in an acceptable level of revenue at a time of uncertainty, and while the portfolio is being ramped up,’ he said.

cc2014
06/6/2024
07:45
I wouldn't be surprised if octopus take over GRID within the 2 years, does make sense for a business point of view..
igoe104
06/6/2024
07:42
Also I don't think the deal with Octopus will turn out that great for GRID, but it does open a new market and that's important.
cc2014
06/6/2024
07:40
There was one question in the presentation which I think worth repeating. I'm long so perhaps I'm looking for things that aren't there.

The question was broadly something along the lines of "if ORIT are contracting for half GRID's output"... "why wouldn't they seek to acquire that output themselves"

Which GRID couldn't answer of course as it was not for them to answer. But they did say Octopus needed 1500 capacity vs the 1000ish they have taken from GRID.


As a shareholder I'm left wondering why Octopus don't just offer 90p for GRID? Conjecture I know, but maybe this is a good way for Octopus to take a "look, see" first.


it will be interesting to see where the share price goes as the market settles down and has had time to digest this. I suspect a bit higher yet.


(Also I note we are back to negative pricing last night as we had some wind)

cc2014
06/6/2024
07:30
With regard to the NAV they said in the meeting they are still working it through.

Also that the Octopus deal is at a higher price than the existing revenue assumptions.


That must mean this deal enhances the NAV. (but I expect the effect is marginal)

cc2014
05/6/2024
22:37
I am happy to be corrected and thanks for that clarification, in a webinar rather than rns, which I have not heard/seen. In which case this restores GRID to better than breakeven next year and does indeed raise the prospect of paying a dividend again.

If GRID can secure £40M pa revenue by effectively contracting half the portfolio to a private buyer, why not do the same with the rest? On short term or upward indexing contracts.

Was there any consideration of what this means to NAV ... presumably not much change since the 130p valuation assumes market prices recover after flat years covered by the Octopus agreement.

marktime1231
05/6/2024
21:32
MODO done an overview of tolling deal they reckon its work 56k/MW which is well above what bessanalytics reckon GRID are making from their BM registered batteries.

hxxps://modoenergy.com/research/battery-tolling-announced-gresham-house-octopus-energy-june-2024

nickrl
05/6/2024
19:52
Unfortunately the webinar not uploaded despite the promise in the RNS
nickrl
05/6/2024
19:02
Thanks mepfish.

Marktime1231, the webinar clarified that the 43m in 2025 referred to (guaranteed) contracted revenues, which comprised
a) the capacity market revenue for GRID's entire portfolio
b) the tolling revenue from that part of GRID's portfolio allocated to Octopus.

Which leaves the unknown non-octopus portfolio revenues from wholesale markets and the BM, (which must be estimated at 27m, given they said they were targeting total revenues of 70m in 2025).

They did not break down the split of the 43m between a) and b), as they said that that was commercially sensitive information, but they said that given previous information re CM payments, investors/analysts could make a decent estimate re the split.

llef
05/6/2024
18:39
The deal is for half of GRID long-term portfolio.



Fund manager Gresham House announced the two-year fixed price contract with Octopus today (5 June), which covers 568MW/920MWh of its UK battery energy storage system (BESS) assets, half of its long-term target portfolio of 1,072MW.

igoe104
05/6/2024
18:31
Where is the clarification that the £43M pa revenue is just for that half of the portfolio participating in the Octopus tolling agreement? The rns does not say that, it says the whole of the portfolio:

"Including the Company's Capacity Market revenues across its full portfolio, the majority of which are for 15 years index-linked to CPI, the Company expects to have annual contracted revenues of c.£43mn during the tolling arrangement."

marktime1231
05/6/2024
18:03
"Christopher Brown, an analyst at JP Morgan Cazenove, estimated the deal with Octopus could lift GRID’s annual revenues to about £70m and see it reinstate a covered dividend of 4.7p per share, more than expected though well below the 7.35p it originally aimed to pay last year.

‘Overall this is an interesting transaction that locks in an acceptable level of revenue at a time of uncertainty, and while the portfolio is being ramped up,’ he said."

Even a reduced dividend of around 4.7p would give a dividend yield of almost 8% at the current share price.

pj84
05/6/2024
16:57
yes its £43m for the part of the portfolio in the tolling agreement with Octopus, 54% roughly of total portfolio. said target (not forecast) rev for FY25 is £70m with £50m ebitda. man fee & interest could be around another £10m each . talked about dividend for Fy25 but also hinted at buybacks. I guess because of the wide discount to NAV (being recalculated following deal but not expected to move much +/-).
mepfish
05/6/2024
13:48
They also said they were hoping for 50m EBITDA in 2025...
llef
05/6/2024
13:47
I watched the webinar, and pretty sure I remember them saying they were hoping for 70m revenue for 2025.
Of that 70m, 43m being the total contracted (ie guaranteed) revenue from Octopus tolling deal and CM payments, the extra 27m coming from wholesale and balancing market for the non-octopus capacity.

Perhaps someone else who watched the webinar could confirm those impressions?

llef
05/6/2024
13:46
Well that is not how I read it.
marktime1231
05/6/2024
13:41
The £43m pa is for the Octopus part of the portfolio only.
cc2014
05/6/2024
13:33
Total whole portfolio (eg once complete c. year end) revenue run rate £43M pa for the duration of the Octopus tolling agreement.

Adopting your figures nickrl if that equates to £40K/MW/yr then this has locked in sub-performance, kind of hedging against things getting any worse. By my previous estimate it needs £55K/MW/yr to breakeven and £120K/MW/yr to restore a 7p dividend - Ben Guest himself said restoration required £70K/MW/yr at a presentation but I think he meant net income. Let's not assume this restores the dividend then.

We were told the frothy first half of April delivered £41.5K/MW/yr, so this is backwarding.

I imagine good for Octopus though. If they are so switched on to using battery storage to arbitrage the electricity market why not just buy out GRID at this discount level. Are Octopus Infrastructure investing in their own storage projects ... maybe waiting for longer duration technologies to arrive.

marktime1231
05/6/2024
08:28
Interesting move and locks in certainty but they could have traded the assets themselves in the wholesale mkt. Also they've previously indicated that assets trading outside of the ESO income streams (ancillary services, balancing mechanism, balancing reserve) were producing better revenue levels from trading so be interesting to know whether they are pulling assets out of the ESO mkts or not.

Edit: Is the 43m quoted the income from the Octopus deal or the whole portfolio? The former equates to around £80k/MW/yr good but nearer £40k/MW/yr on whole portfolio and that includes CM payments which is better than their BM assets are achieving currently. Unfortunately cant attend the webinar later to seek clarity but hopefully they will upload it.

nickrl
05/6/2024
07:52
Also looks like the dividend will be returning 2025..
igoe104
05/6/2024
07:29
Good move, the less reliant on NG the better, hopefully more deals like this are in the pipeline with other operators, with the rest of the portfolio..
igoe104
05/6/2024
07:26
That's an RNS and a half
cc2014
31/5/2024
10:57
My sense of this based on the trades going through at 54.6p is that someone is trying to collect stock without disturbing the price.

The challenge for me as someone who has enough stock and wants the share price to go up is that are succeeding.

Until either the flow of sellers around 53.8p stops or the careful buyer has to start competing with a second buyer the share price is going nowhere.

I'm trying to stay optimistic. The careful buyer isn't exactly getting much stock with this strategy, some yes, but in the scheme of usual daily turnover and GRID's market cap not much at all.

cc2014
Chat Pages: 40  39  38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  Older

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