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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc | LSE:GRID | London | Ordinary Share | GB00BFX3K770 | ORD 1P |
| Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.40 | -0.75% | 53.20 | 278,733 | 16:35:08 |
| Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.60 | 53.20 | 53.20 | 52.70 | 52.80 | |
| Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty | -100.1M | -110.11M | -0.1929 | -2.73 | 305.9M |
| Last Trade Time | Trade Type | Trade Size | Trade Price | Currency |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:35:08 | UT | 4,338 | 53.20 | GBX |
| Date | Time | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2024 | 10:19 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Director/PDMR Shareholding |
| 30/9/2024 | 13:14 | ALNC |  EARNINGS: Brighton Pier gives downbeat outlook; Seeen "has momentum" |
| 30/9/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Half-year results to 30 June 2024 |
| 18/9/2024 | 10:00 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Notice of Interim Results |
| 12/9/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Enderby Battery Energy Storage Site Visit |
| 09/9/2024 | 19:31 | ALNC | IN BRIEF: Gresham net asset value down, though eyes dividend return |
| 09/9/2024 | 07:00 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Q2 2024 NAV, valuation & trading update.. |
| 11/7/2024 | 13:38 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Holding(s) in Company |
| 11/7/2024 | 13:38 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Holding(s) in Company |
| 11/7/2024 | 13:37 | UK RNS | Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Holding(s) in Company |
Gresham House Energy Sto... (GRID) Share Charts1 Year Gresham House Energy Sto... Chart |
|
1 Month Gresham House Energy Sto... Chart |
Intraday Gresham House Energy Sto... Chart |
| Date | Time | Title | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2024 | 13:18 | GRESHAM HOUSE ENERGY STORAGE FUND PLC (GRID) | 1,021 |
| 12/7/2022 | 11:00 | GRID Takeover | - |
| 30/4/2021 | 23:07 | GRID scaling up | 1 |
| 27/1/2003 | 21:58 | GRIDIRON - The greatest game on earth! | 24 |
| Trade Time | Trade Price | Trade Size | Trade Value | Trade Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-03 15:35:08 | 53.20 | 4,338 | 2,307.82 | UT |
| 2024-10-03 15:20:27 | 52.94 | 30,935 | 16,377.51 | O |
| 2024-10-03 15:20:10 | 52.95 | 10,000 | 5,294.70 | O |
| 2024-10-03 15:19:26 | 52.98 | 14,500 | 7,681.56 | O |
| 2024-10-03 14:50:09 | 52.61 | 4,150 | 2,183.15 | O |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 03/10/2024 09:20 by Gresham House Energy Sto... Daily Update Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc is listed in the Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GRID. The last closing price for Gresham House Energy Sto... was 53.60p.Gresham House Energy Sto... currently has 570,701,073 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gresham House Energy Sto... is £300,759,465. Gresham House Energy Sto... has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -2.73. This morning GRID shares opened at 52.80p |
Posted at 03/10/2024 13:05 by pj84 The update concludes: -Very wide discount may be an attractive investment opportunity Until a year ago, GRID’s shares usually traded at a premium to cum-income NAV (see chart at the start of this note), but a sharp share price decline over the past year has seen the share price enter discount territory. The company initiated a programme of share buybacks in February 2024, repurchasing a total of 4.4m shares before buybacks ceased in April 2024, to focus capital allocation to the construction of new projects and augmentations. The discount exceeded 60% at this point but has since narrowed to closer to 50%. This is likely to be due at least in part to the improvement in GRID’s revenue outlook over recent months, especially since the agreement of the tolling arrangement with Octopus Energy. In addition, investors may be beginning to see value in the shares. Alternative valuation estimates released by GRID for the first time in its H124 results show that at current merchant revenue levels and based on current operational capacity and the tolling arrangement discussed above, the company is valued at 9x EV/EBITDA, with a P/E ratio of 5.7x, on a forward basis. However, capacity is set to rise by end 2024, and medium- to long-term revenues are forecast to increase significantly based on third-party revenue curves, so both the EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios are likely to fall over time. This suggests the company’s shares offer potential value at their current level. The current wide and arguably unjustified discount may represent an opportunity for those investors who share the confidence of GRID’s manager and board in the long-term viability of the battery storage industry and in the company’s prospects. It will take more time for conditions in the sector to improve, and for GRID’s revenues to fully reflect recent developments, but as and when they do, the company’s share price discount has significant scope to narrow back towards its historical levels. |
Posted at 30/9/2024 12:44 by marktime1231 Thanks nickrl. The share price responding like the outlook is more stable, but it still feels to me this should be a 40-50p share rather than 50-60p.I wonder if Octopus (ORIT) are the interested party given their tolling agreement, in some of the choice assets rather than the whole. Octopus the energy supplier is ahead of the pack in the way it trades the daily cycle of energy prices, and has the nouse to exploit storage in contrast to ESO. Which NAV do you think the bid might be close to, the previous unbelievable or the current unbelievable? It would be surprising if GRID were not prepared to trade something on par terms given the wide alleged discount, if only to demonstrate that its NAV figures are not complete fantasy. So there might be a net FY result of £20-25M? I don't share your enthusiasm that GRIDs first priority is to distribute some income to shareholders, not until it knows what is sustainable anyway. Sometime late next year? Did you get a sense how confident GRID are of delivering the revised asset schedule, are they hitting dates now? |
Posted at 09/9/2024 09:03 by cc2014 NAV down 15.4% to 109.16p and the share price reacting unsurprisingly to the downside."At its upcoming Capital Markets Day (details to follow), the Company intends to announce a three-year plan seeking to maximise portfolio capacity, revenues and cashflow from 2025 to 2027 whilst reducing the volatility of earnings. The Manager believes that GRID, in achieving scale over the last 5 years, has a significant opportunity to maximise value for shareholders as the industry moves past the recent low point in revenues. The key areas of focus include further augmentations, new pipeline opportunities, efficient capital management, and alternative revenue sources." Sorry, where is GRID getting the cash from to do new buildout and new augmentation unless the dividend is to remain at a very low level? I suspect it's just words. It would be helpful if GRID had told us what the new forecasts from Aurora and Modo are |
Posted at 26/7/2024 08:35 by cc2014 It's my view CDeV that it's currently hard to build a compelling case for GRID.On a short term basis the price per unit generated is low and whilst it has not yet got as low as the January low's it's starting to get there. That will change when the wind starts blowing in autumn but what we are seeing are long periods of time when there is little to arbitrage. And if there is little to arbitrage in "trading" there's also little demand for the balancing mechanism when the weather is so stable. On a longer term basis there are two issues. The price of lithium and potential improvements in technology means newer batteries can produce economic returns at lower power prices than GRID can. That imho will tend to drive revenues down for GRID (or at least mean revenues don't rise as technology improvements offset inflation) Then finally we have the interconnectors. Britain is no longer an isolated island. The interconnectors with Europe are squashing the peaks and troughs in pricing. Further we are building more interconnectors between Scotland and the SE coast of the UK which will further squash arbitrage opportunities. So, I end up with an investment model that instead requires 15 year tolling agreements and 15 year capacity market contracts. But the market does not currently offer 15 year tolling agreements and GRID chose not to take part in the 15 year CM contracts as it though there would be more revenue from trading. GRID's next immediate problem is surely the expiry of it's 1 year CM contracts which it will have to rebid for. I would assume/guess/have a stab in the dark that given the current low revenues in the market for trading, the supply of bids will be high and prices for next year will be lower than this year. On the other hand the share price is 63p... which perhaps reflects a great deal of uncertainty about future revenues... |
Posted at 04/7/2024 07:36 by george stobbart Deutsche Bank Numis initiates coverage of Battery Storage Funds with Positive RatingLondon, July, 4 2024 The significant share price volatility across battery storage investment companies in 2024 (average -31% ytd) reflects the impact of lower actual and forecast GB revenues on earnings, dividends and NAVs. Ultimately, we believe battery storage has a significant role to play in the energy transition and in our view the inherent variability of the current merchant-based revenue model is masking upside potential of the listed peer group. Although we reiterate our view that the variable revenue profile is less suited to the high fixed dividend targets that underpinned initial investment pitches, we note the composition of returns is evolving with the introduction of greater contracted revenue visibility and earnings-based dividend policies. We do not rule out the possibility of further near-term share price volatility, but in our view the significant increases in operational capacity, expected over the coming months as companies execute existing build out programmes, gives rise to attractive potential earnings. This will improve cash cover for existing dividends and enable a return to distributions from funds where dividends are currently suspended. This, combined with the potential for asset sales and corporate action, will underpin a positive share price trajectory in our view. To download the full note (41 pages) please click here: Download battery storage note Evolution of revenues: The weakness in revenues for GB batteries over the past 12 months has been driven by falling prices for ancillary services amid increased supply, coupled with limited opportunities in wholesale markets. The picture has improved more recently, aided by the first steps of a programme to evolve the grid balancing systems, but it is expected to be some time before the impact of this is fully felt. Gore Street Energy Storage’s international exposure has partially cushioned the impact of this weakness in the GB market on overall revenues, while Gresham House Energy Storage has responded to the challenging environment with the introduction contracted revenues through a tolling arrangement. This two-year contract will reduce the volatility of earnings, but we expect some investors will question the potential returns upside that has been sacrificed. Do discounts offer value: Wide discounts are reflective of investor scepticism towards NAVs and portfolio valuations that are based on long-term, third-party revenue forecasts in a nascent market. As a result, we focus on nearer-term cash earnings and undertake a scenario analysis which assesses the likely run-rate earnings potential of each fund by the end of 2024 and underlines potentially attractive distributable returns going forward. We believe evidence of this translating into a more sustained period of improved returns will be required for share prices to see a significant further re-rating, but we note that there is also scope for value to be unlocked through M&A and asset sales, given significant capital is seeking access to the storage thematic. Preferred exposure: Based on our analysis we believe Gore Street Energy Storage offers investors the most compelling exposure to the BESS sector. Its significant anticipated growth in operational capacity in H2 gives rise to attractive forward-looking earnings potential, which should be relatively stable based on the portfolio’s international diversification across five uncorrelated grids. In addition, we note that shares of Harmony Energy Income also benefit from potential nearer-term catalysts, with the prospect of asset sales and other corporate action. |
Posted at 03/7/2024 00:08 by george stobart Jefferies turns bullish on Battery Storage funds for the first time since 2022.Jefferies Equity Research July 3, 2024 Battery Storage - Q2 State of Charge During Q2 GB battery revenue improved for the first time since summer 2022, predominately driven by frequency response. We expect the volume required for dynamic response services to remain high in July and August, and we also see signs of the trading environment improving going into Q3. Elsewhere, we take a look at grid code change GC0166 in more detail. Overview: Modo Energy's revenue benchmark (now including CM revenue) indicates that GB BESS revenue improved in Q2, achieving c.£10,700/MW for 1-hour batteries and c.£14,600/MW for 2-hour batteries, versus c.£8,400/MW and c.£12,200/MW in Q1, respectively, and versus c.£14,900/MW and c.£18,500/MW, respectively, in Q2 2023. The quarter-on-quarter improvement was largely driven by stronger seasonal demand in frequency response, and helped by a better trading performance. The balancing reserve, introduced in March, saw declining prices over Q2 and therefore remains a very limited part of the overall revenue stack. Ancillary services: Higher volume required in dynamic responses has resulted in a price improvement, which in turn contributed positively to battery revenue in Q2. The dynamic containment volume required will likely remain seasonally high throughout July and August before softening in September. This should provide support to ancillary services revenue in Q3. Trading: Day-ahead intraday spreads have increased in Q2 to a monthly average of £52/MW, from £44/MW in Q1, and £51/MW in Q2 2023. UK forward power prices have picked up over Q2 (here), which along with the heightened possibility of zero and negative wholesale prices during summer, should improve the trading environment for batteries in Q3. Elsewhere, we see some evidence of the 30-minute rule and balancing reserve helping to increase batteries' dispatched volume into the balancing mechanism since March. Grid code change GC0166: Our recent expert call with Caroline Still from Aurora Energy Research (here) highlighted the importance of grid code change GC0166. Currently, National Grid relies on a workaround using the unit's grid connection metrics (Maximum Import Limit and Maximum Export Limit) and caps batteries' dispatches to 30 minutes. The proposed change will bring in new parameters designed for limited duration storage (including Maximum Delivery Bid, Maximum Delivery Offer, and Future State of Energy). As these parameters reflect the batteries' operational state and commitments at the selected point in time, they enhance the communication between battery operators and National Grid's control room, which in turn will enable longer dispatches into the balancing mechanism. The workgroup on GC0166 expects to finalise the solution in September, and the grid code's implementation date is provisionally set for the end of March 2025. |
Posted at 17/6/2024 12:29 by cc2014 For those who have an interest in trade flow someone has been absorbing every sell they can get since the day after the tolling agreement was announced.Very many of the trades which are marked as buys when they are sells with MM's offering prices very close to the offer. On the face of it one wonders how long this can go on but the actual net sell volume going through GRID is small by comparison with the market cap or even someone looking to pick up just a couple of million of shares. Broadly this long term buyer is very patient and being successful but the bid keeps creeping up albeit at a snails pace. Most of the real sell trades are relatively small. With a few exceptions most of the sells are less than 10k shares. These are probably a mixture of PI's and institutions but whoever they are from it's clear there is no large institutional seller. I suspect the large buyer is working to some formula based on a compromise of volume/price/time. They are in no hurry but if they don't get enough volume the price moves up slightly. Occasionally some larger blocks of 250k or 375k or whatever go through. The buyer seems to absorb these without thinking perhaps because what now seems like a large block at 250k isn't a large block at all if you are looking to collect even 3% of the share capital which would be 17 million shares. My thought process is that post the tolling agreement, GRID have effectively fixed revenues on half the portfolio and this provides a price below which the share price won't drop. I guess this to be around 60p because anything below that I would expect Octopus to consider bidding for the whole of GRID. They must have run the numbers on it several times already. GLA |
Posted at 24/5/2024 07:30 by cc2014 I guess the question is if NAV is not 130p what is it?There are two major factors in the the NAV. The price curve and the discount rate. Let's deal with the discount rate first. It's 10.8% so that's higher than nearly every IT I look at (actually I can only think of DGI9 which is higher and that's a basket case). I think that assumption prudent. Then we have the price curve, where long term prices are above today's (but not recent previous years). For the sake of discussion let's say they are too high by quite a bit. Let's call the NAV 90p instead. That's still a discount to NAV of 36%. That's a decent enough chance the share price could go up 50% from here. The share price does not expensive to me. Cheap even. Or I'll try another way. The NAV is based on the sum of discounted future cash flows. So, if the revenue forecasts are so optimistic why did the NAV go up by 0.51p from winning new Capacity Market contracts in the last quarter. The answer is of course that the revenue in these new contracts is higher than whatever was being assumed in the previous NAV model. This for contracts won recently at uninspiring prices. From where I'm sitting it's pretty simple. The share price has fallen and overshot to the downside as is often the case as people bail as they can take the pain no longer. The recovery always takes a while and goes in phases. (Also take a look at the price of UK Natural Gas which as the marginal fuel sets the price of electricity in the UK. The higher it goes the better for GRID as it works the price spread. It's up over 50% since February. It's not just a UK thing either. It's global. US gas is up around 75% over the same period) |
Posted at 20/5/2024 20:06 by pj84 Conclusion from Edison's latest update."Discount may present an opportunity to invest at a low price GRID’s shares usually trade at a premium to cum-income NAV (see chart at the start of the note), but the sharp share price drop over the past six months or so has seen the share price tumble deep into discount territory. The discount reached its widest reading of more than 60% in February 2023, at which point the company initiated a programme of share buybacks to support the share price. These continued until mid-April 2023, after which the company decided to redirect capital to the development of its project pipeline, as discussed above. These buybacks, combined with the recent improvement in revenues, have, arguably, provided support for the share price. It is also likely that investors have begun to see value in the shares, which one analyst estimates are now trading below the replacement cost of GRID’s BESS assets. GRID’s discount narrowed to around 50% in recent weeks. For those who share the confidence of GRID’s manager and board in the long-term viability of the battery storage industry and the company’s prospects, the sharp decline in the company’s share price may provide an opportunity to invest at an unusually low price. It may take some time for conditions in the sector to normalise, and for GRID’s revenues to fully recover from recent events, but as and when they do, the company’s share price discount has scope to narrow back towards its historical levels." |
Posted at 22/2/2024 17:18 by marktime1231 From studying the ESO spreadsheet it seems GRID submitted around a dozen of its smaller BESS in to the T-1 Capacity Market auction, it will be up to management to tell us which were successful and what the financial impact will be. HEIT observed that the price struck was 40% lower than last year but higher than expected. The big winners appear to be larger longer duration BESS including new installations.My conclusion is that this is neither here nor there for GRID, if it had been a windfall bonus we would have heard already because they are so desperate for good news. Notably HEIT have renegotiated their group financing with a modest reduction in near term rate, presumably to help get them through the income slump. It remains to be seen when and how the sector will restore income to justify their current valuations. I don't see what is causing the recovery in GRID share price from 50p, in the same way I couldn't see why it recovered from 80p to 110p. Hopeful optimism and "bump in the road" thinking, because you have to and ...? We should wait for solid evidence of financial performance recovery and bankable outlook, ignoring fanciful asset valuation, before concluding this has been oversold. |
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