Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 21/2/2024 22:46

@igoe good amount securing contracts for sure but price well down on last years amount.

[igoe104] 21/2/2024 16:54

BESS wins highest percentage among clean energy technologies in UK Capacity Market auction

[nickrl] 16/2/2024 09:57

@igoe104 that article suggests it will favour the 2hr BESS operators which is HEITs province currently although GRID are modifying several sites to bring them up to 2hr capability. The wider issue remains that new capacity from multiple operators is coming on stream this year so downward pressure on pricing likely. Certainly a good trading week for GRIDs sp!

[igoe104] 16/2/2024 09:17

Changes from 1st of March. Could triple battery storage volume.

[nickrl] 14/2/2024 17:11

@CDV no there doesn't especially as HEIT made new closing atl

[cruelladeville] 14/2/2024 16:39

Very welcome rebound in share price today here. Doesn't seem any obvious underlying reasons?

[nickrl] 13/2/2024 20:23

So at one of the regular ESO webinars yesterday they confirmed that battery duration in the balancing mechanism will be switched from 15mins to 30mins duration on 1st March. This should help BESS providers as they will be able to nominate twice the energy levels as now which should encourage dispatchers to use them more. We will have to see what happens in a couple of weeks.

[nickrl] 12/2/2024 10:55

@bsdj Peel Hunt behind the curve aren't analysts supposed to ahead of the curve!

[bsdjj] 12/2/2024 10:38

Peel Hunt note on energy storage specialists.HEIT initiated UnderperformGSF initiated UnderperformGRID maintained Outperform

[hpcg] 11/2/2024 21:32

nickrl - I would say the same about REITs, MLPs and any other similar structure that doesn't have long term contracts. Shipping gets judged off conventional metrics and it is a similar capital heavy asset to income play. It is cyclical whereas the underlying assumption for property, batteries and pipelines is that they do not have a volatile income. It turns out that batteries price off a spot market just like a ship does and their income is just as volatile. That said I think we are arguing to agree. Yes, exactly what you said, the holding structure is the sum of all the actual operating assets. These either generate or consume cash, and they can pay the interest on their external debt or not.

As you say the current situation with the published accounts to June 2023 is quite misleading, but the share price should be a warning to anyone looking in that all is not well.

[nickrl] 11/2/2024 17:42

@wskill for sure changes to ESO systems may help drive up balancing mechanism revenue as the software upgrades are implemented. However, there is a tsunami of new batteries being energised this year and specifically some supersized installations, way bigger than what GRID/HEIT have, and suspect they will corner the market. Reckon we wont know till H2 whether the fundamentals have improved here.

@hcpg not sure of your logic here. The REIT is just a holding company for the MidCo which administers the opcos which own and operate the BESS. The REITs profits are based off the value of the assets which are pretty suspect given Gresham undertake the valuation i would suggest. You have to look back over last 12mths to see how wrong they've been on energy price forecasts to be suspicious this has been propped up. Follow the money which flows to the opcos who then pay interest and amortisation on the loans from the MidCo if they can afford it. The MidCo is financed by shareholder cash from the REIT and commercial loans. The latter have to paid but interest on the shareholder loan is flexible and can be waived. The MidCo needs to preserve cash for the build out committments currently and avoid taking on naymore debt than it has to. So not much left for the REIT except Gresham fees of course and cash for share buybacks. So where is the profit coming from?

The other thing to be wary of here come results is H1 wasn't too bad and its wasn't until Q4 that there was a significant decline in revenue generation. What we also need to see here is what assumptions Gresham are now using in valuing the opcos.

[wskill] 11/2/2024 12:43

By year end 2024 it will be a different story presently the ESO is constrained by the below.

An upgrade, planned for December 2023 but not operational until late January, allowed National Grid ESO’s systems to call on multiple batteries simultaneously. This is a good first step.

Fast dispatch (to launch in the next few months) will make it easier for the grid to call on multiple batteries more quickly – increasing their usefulness.

However, the final upgrade in late 2024 is needed to allow batteries to dispatch energy to the grid for more than 15 minutes at a time. This is key. Most of the time the grid needs power for longer than 15 minutes. Battery storage is usually set up so it can deliver power for an hour or two hours. However, the grid’s systems will not currently let it call on batteries for longer than 15 minutes

[hpcg] 10/2/2024 16:24

Podgtyed - I am with you 100%. This is a trading company all but legally and should be judged on operating profit, finance costs, return on equity, conventional book value and conventional depreciation. Dividend is irrelevant as it is just a pass through. Accounting NAV is irrelevant if one looks at trading profit and judges quality on trading returns on those assets. I haven't done a single one of the above yet so I have no idea if this is attractively priced or doomed, but just wanted to support your opinion about the sensible approach to financial analysis.

[cruelladeville] 08/2/2024 16:20

I can find no declared short positions in GRID stocks?

[genista71] 08/2/2024 16:00

They charge fees on a made up on a "NAV"..I really don't understand why Shareholdwers aren't kicking and screaming..The manager is robbing them blind

[bsdjj] 08/2/2024 15:58

Muddy Waters is short Fairfax Financial. Chinese whispers gone awry on that one....

[robertspc1] 08/2/2024 14:16

The investment manager should be waiving or refunding fees given this utter shambles. Can't just blame the National Grid

[igoe104] 08/2/2024 11:47

Another director buy this morning...

[igoe104] 08/2/2024 11:44

Just listened to GRID update this morning. It does appear to be a bump in the road, and hopefully the dividend will be back soon, but I'd imagine it will be reduced rate than before. Does sound like GRID have a eye on international markets in the future as well, once this current UK build has been completed. This USA project is only suspended and will be revisted once issues are over..

I think last year sounds like the government last time they will be powering up coal power stations,..

[bsdjj] 08/2/2024 10:08

Where is this "rumour" I pray ask??

[nickrl] 08/2/2024 08:32

@igoe104 accelerating more BESS connections is the last thing needed!!!

[igoe104] 08/2/2024 07:56

National Grid is hosting an investor event in London today focusing on accelerating connections across its UK Electricity Transmission and Distribution businesses.

Might be worth listening to...


 



 

[spectoacc] 08/2/2024 06:52

If Muddy Waters are on it, GRID are worth 10p at best.