Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

[willywonka12] 09/4/2024 08:46

maybe because BESS revenues were up 45% in March compared with February

I thought you just made that up .
But but read the city wire article. Good that should be a RND

[willywonka12] 09/4/2024 08:42

I.just made small top up.if get upto a pound should brake evan

[cc2014] 08/4/2024 20:41

Maybe a share price of 40p was just wrong.

Or maybe because BESS revenues were up 45% in March compared with February

[cc2014] 08/4/2024 20:41

Maybe a share price of 40p was just wrong.

Or maybe because BESS revenues were up 45% in March compared with February

[nickrl] 08/4/2024 17:00

@willywonka maybe or just start of new tax year and people loading up as generally up across market today

[willywonka12] 08/4/2024 15:55

Some good news leaked or hopefully

[nickrl] 08/4/2024 11:56

@CC2014 part of the problem currently is ESO need big volumes of adjustment up or down and the gas (and the last coal) plants can do that but they are generally not cheaper. It still seems there is a reluctance of the ESO operators to use BESSS to there maximum capability for reasons yet to be adequately explained but ESO are fine tuning the system through this year.

Maybe when the bigger units come on line through this year with dispatchable volumes much closer to gas units those BESS will get a bigger look in. GRID has one system, Bradford, in the mid pack due on line by H2. They also have the upgrading of several units to have 2hr capability which make them more desirable to ESO.

Waiting on finals which should be this week but don't recollect seeing any announcements.

[george stobart] 08/4/2024 11:56

GRID soon to join the penny stock cemetery

[cc2014] 08/4/2024 09:00

FWIW I think the FT article significant. It's old news as Igoe says but the industry is starting to publicly criticise the ESO and therefore the government.

The stated strategy is to push volume to battery storage to get to net zero but the execution is to keep pushing volume to the gas peakers because they are cheaper.

The gas peakers need to be significantly reduced in the same way coal an oil has nearly been eliminated.


So, I have a decent sized position here on the basis it will all get sorted out in the end. In the meantime the share price could go lower first but I'll take my chances.

[nickrl] 07/4/2024 18:02

@PJ84 revenue per MW/yr has picked up since the start of the year as the ESO system changes in the Balancing Mechanism are driving increased utilisation of BESS. Also the new balancing reserve product is new revenue stream for them. Current run rate is around 50% of the 2022 average so there maybe a potential for some divi reinstatement but my guess is they will want to wait to see whether these revenue streams hold in the face of ever more new BESS systems being commissioned over next few years. GRID has dropped back considerably over last couple of weeks so many investors still aren't convinced its investable yet but will wait on results to decide as its now on a par with HEIT since share price dropped.

[pj84] 07/4/2024 15:28

I decided to have a look here after seeing GRID mentioned in the following article

Clearly for long standing investors this has been a difficult time, particularly, following the decision to not pay the last quarterly dividend and to decide to rerate it, in the upcoming results.

However, for new shareholders this looks like an interesting entry point even with the uncertainty over the dividend.

The NAV for the half year results was 146.66p and the article is factoring in a 38% fall since then to a NAV of around 91p which if it is in the right ball park would mean even after the fall the shares are still on a 55% discount to NAV which still leaves quite a margin for error.

The last full years dividend was 7p and for the year just ending it would have been 7.35p before the cancellation reducing it to 5.5p. If the new dividend is close to 3.5p a 50% cut on the previous full year level that would at the current price be yield of 8.5%.

It's clearly not without risk, but I am hoping that most of the risks are now fully reflected in the price.

[igoe104] 07/4/2024 12:05

The link above is old news, as the situation has improved since December/ January, but I guess its still way of its highs of last summer. I expect the dividend to come back at a much lower level than before, probably 50% lower, until they get more clarity and consistency with the NG.. its difficult to see GRID with all its assets go to the wall, so its probably decent buy at this level...

[bsdjj] 07/4/2024 09:41

https://www.ft.com/content/6485d918-5882-448e-b277-5b5674869281Last line. National Grid ESO declined to comment. Hmmm....

[marktime1231] 05/4/2024 16:58

The silence from GRID is deafening. On 1 Feb when they finally admitted that the dividend was not going to be covered we were promised a statement about a revised policy for 2024 on or before final results which last year were released on Thursday 6 April (and on Weds 6 April the year before).

While they have not committed to a reporting date beyond "April" it is telling that they have slipped past the date we would naturally expect. If this drifts through next week we will see the share price in the 30s, despite the desperate buyback programme which accounts for over a fifth of trading.

[george stobart] 04/4/2024 13:23

Is this ponzi going to £0 by month end as my ex girlfriend's uncle says?

[marktime1231] 03/4/2024 15:39

Still biding my time. The plunge here is entirely rational, we don't know when GRID will be able to pay another dividend or how much. Of course bullish news audited or otherwise could cause a bounce, but is it good news on the way and would we be wise to believe it? I like the scenario and might have a flutter but not yet.

[cc2014] 03/4/2024 14:23

I have loaded up now. My gut says the share price shouldn't be here.

(Trouble is there are plenty of others on which I have the same thought process)!

(And plenty where I see the same irrational selling as here)!

[ghhghh] 27/3/2024 15:06

Is not replacement cost a better metric for determining value rather than some arbitrary NPV driven valuation?

Ultimately it all boils done to supply demand. If roll out of new storage dries up because revenues too low then revenues must rises.

REITs appear easier/safer as new build costs generally trending up with inflation whereas battery storage looks most exposed to reducing battery prices and improving storage capacity.

[nickrl] 27/3/2024 09:54

@hcpg GRID could help themselves if they at least presented the data more like UKW do who operate the same sort of "financial engineering" model where they at least give you some insight into the financial and operating performance of the aggregated portfolio. Its not proper consolidated accounts but it gives you feel that this is the income thats being generated by these assets so gives you some confidence that the valuations the trust is putting on the assets is realistic especially as they all do their own valuations which i find a bit too incestuous. At least REITs have external valuerers.

[hpcg] 27/3/2024 08:41

This is in the "too difficult" bucket for me. It isn't obvious the price is wrong, and the result of forced selling. Thus one needs an exemplary understanding of the economics of the underlying to be able to estimate future returns, which I certainly don't have.

[nickrl] 26/3/2024 20:16

According to bessnalytics there has been a modest improvement in revenues over last month and Modo Energy also saying the new balancing reserve product from the ESO is helpful for BESS as well. Early days but at least these may now generate sufficient income to cover costs although whether any dividend ever gets paid again we will have to wait and see.

[george stobart] 26/3/2024 13:11

Is the share price collapsing because of the chattered Muddy Waters report?

[cc2014] 26/3/2024 12:20

I have been buying down here.

Fingers crossed.