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GRID Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc

66.00
-0.20 (-0.30%)
12 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc LSE:GRID London Ordinary Share GB00BFX3K770 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.20 -0.30% 66.00 65.80 67.50 67.20 65.80 66.90 408,524 16:35:22
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty -100.1M -110.11M -2.8769 -0.23 25.72M
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc is listed in the Trust,ex Ed,religious,charty sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker GRID. The last closing price for Gresham House Energy Sto... was 66.20p. Over the last year, Gresham House Energy Sto... shares have traded in a share price range of 36.90p to 153.80p.

Gresham House Energy Sto... currently has 38,273,996 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Gresham House Energy Sto... is £25.72 million. Gresham House Energy Sto... has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -0.23.

Gresham House Energy Sto... Share Discussion Threads

Showing 701 to 725 of 950 messages
Chat Pages: 38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
11/2/2024
12:43
By year end 2024 it will be a different story presently the ESO is constrained by the below.

An upgrade, planned for December 2023 but not operational until late January, allowed National Grid ESO’s systems to call on multiple batteries simultaneously. This is a good first step.

Fast dispatch (to launch in the next few months) will make it easier for the grid to call on multiple batteries more quickly – increasing their usefulness.

However, the final upgrade in late 2024 is needed to allow batteries to dispatch energy to the grid for more than 15 minutes at a time. This is key. Most of the time the grid needs power for longer than 15 minutes. Battery storage is usually set up so it can deliver power for an hour or two hours. However, the grid’s systems will not currently let it call on batteries for longer than 15 minutes

wskill
10/2/2024
16:24
Podgtyed - I am with you 100%. This is a trading company all but legally and should be judged on operating profit, finance costs, return on equity, conventional book value and conventional depreciation. Dividend is irrelevant as it is just a pass through. Accounting NAV is irrelevant if one looks at trading profit and judges quality on trading returns on those assets. I haven't done a single one of the above yet so I have no idea if this is attractively priced or doomed, but just wanted to support your opinion about the sensible approach to financial analysis.
hpcg
08/2/2024
16:20
I can find no declared short positions in GRID stocks?
cruelladeville
08/2/2024
16:00
They charge fees on a made up on a "NAV"..I really don't understand why Shareholdwers aren't kicking and screaming..The manager is robbing them blind
genista71
08/2/2024
15:58
Muddy Waters is short Fairfax Financial. Chinese whispers gone awry on that one....
bsdjj
08/2/2024
14:16
The investment manager should be waiving or refunding fees given this utter shambles. Can't just blame the National Grid
robertspc1
08/2/2024
11:47
Another director buy this morning...
igoe104
08/2/2024
11:44
Just listened to GRID update this morning. It does appear to be a bump in the road, and hopefully the dividend will be back soon, but I'd imagine it will be reduced rate than before. Does sound like GRID have a eye on international markets in the future as well, once this current UK build has been completed. This USA project is only suspended and will be revisted once issues are over..

I think last year sounds like the government last time they will be powering up coal power stations,..

igoe104
08/2/2024
10:08
Where is this "rumour" I pray ask??
bsdjj
08/2/2024
08:32
@igoe104 accelerating more BESS connections is the last thing needed!!!
nickrl
08/2/2024
07:56
National Grid is hosting an investor event in London today focusing on accelerating connections across its UK Electricity Transmission and Distribution businesses.

Might be worth listening to...


 



 

igoe104
08/2/2024
06:52
If Muddy Waters are on it, GRID are worth 10p at best.
spectoacc
07/2/2024
22:39
Listened to Ben Guest on many occasions. Comes across as pretty arrogant I know best. Is he now doing mea culpa or same old stuff
robertspc1
07/2/2024
22:36
Muddy Waters is Short GRID and are going to publish a detailed report tomorrow?

Are the rumours correct?

mr george stobbart
07/2/2024
21:46
@genista71 as a NED he probably shouldn't be commenting either way?
nickrl
07/2/2024
20:07
David Stevenson is embarrassing..he talked these up at issue and when the stock prices were sky high, basically the mouthpiece of the management to raise money..the revenue environment has been poor for 8 months and fallen off a cliff over the last three months and he doesn't say a word..he has no insight. and the so called analysts are much the same, a waste of space.
genista71
07/2/2024
18:05
Amused to note NED David Stevenson, in his regular "adventurous investor" column in FT Money, mentioned a couple of examples (often ones where he is invested or about to be) in the renewables sector where the wide discount makes for an attractive opportunity. On this occasion he was not able to bring himself to tip GRID.
marktime1231
07/2/2024
17:41
@CC2014 re#668 capacity market is a fixed fee/MW/Yr at the derated capacity. Biggest income stream is from T-1 as the derating factor is even larger on T-15. When you refer to spot i presume you mean trading in the wholesale market where the units registered with the ESO are visible to bessanalytics/modo (and us if you want to download and manipulate huge quantities of datapoints!!). These represent c50% of capacity the other 50% are potentially signed up with an energy trader who uses them to balance their books but at what rate only GRID can reveal. The likes of UKW provide much more visibility about each of their assets income stream and whether its fixed or linked to an index or the system price GRID should be more transparent as well then broker notes wouldn't be second guessing their forecasts.
nickrl
07/2/2024
12:54
Really interesting discussion guys. My guess is FY23 revenues halved to about £25M too, but I can't get a handle on future income or NAV except that things must be considerably down. The managers must be under huge pressure from Searchlight to deliver fees.

As I recall the last fund raise in May 2023, at 155.5p, was chiefly to finance the new venture in California. They were shooting for £80M but only raised £50M, circa 32 million shares representing a 6% dilution. I wonder how those who reluctantly participated feel now, their funds being used to run a buyback at 50p instead.

marktime1231
07/2/2024
12:15
@nickrl Many thanks for your latest post. It created a lightbulb moment for me.

This is what I came up with.

Based on the BESS data GRID has got 34k/MW/yr inc. the CM contracts for the last 30 days. The BESS data does not contain all the GRID batteries as far as I can see but I've got to start somewhere.

So,

Revenue based on 740MW currently installed £25m
Interest at 8% on debt of £110m £9m
Running costs inc. fund manager fee at 1.25% £10m
Profit £6m
equals EPS of 1p vs dividend before axe of 7.35p


If I re-run based on 45k/MW/yr (which seems optimistic given how much is coming on stream) and 2024 ramped to 1072MW and assume it all came on stream on Jan 1st which is obviously hasn't and add £20m of debt for the build out and drop the NAV to 100p I get an EPS of 5.35p vs the revised dividend of 5.51p


Not only is the spot price hurting GRID but it's strategy of going spot rather than fixed price capacity market contracts is also hurting it. Only 29% of GRID's revenue is CM, the lowest of the major 3. GSF's is 42% as it has made a far greater effort to match it's long term revenue with long term cost of build.

cc2014
06/2/2024
21:18
@CC2014 id say the run rate excluding CM payments is no more than 30k/MW/yr based on latest MODO data. So based on the 740MW they have this generates c22m revenue through the opcos. Current year they have some asset with T-1/4 Capacity Mkt agreement worth another 6m so say 36m. How much of this is then lost through operational costs is difficult to work out but looking at a couple of opco subsidiary accounts it could be in range of 10-15k/MW so that eats into the revenue say 9m so nett 27m.

Onto financing majority of opcos have loans from the midco but they aren't commercial loans and can be parked without comeback ie its the shareholders cash which was charged at 8% to fund the 42m pa divi.

So the main external liability is the loan drawn by the MidCo and according to last weeks trading update its still 110m which is surprising but guess they have plenty of cash for the dead Californian adventure to finance the current upgrades. Its quoted as SONIA+300bps so could be 8% currently but they refer to hedging but can't find that detail anywhere. Last MidCo accounts are over 12mths old. So say 9m + 1mm for commitment fee for unused portion of loan. Then there are fund costs run rate was 10m at HY23 report. So that leaves the 7m or so to fund the buyback currently.

Can't see how this even support a sub 100p NAV personally but then they won't take my/your analysis as they decide for themselves what the NAV is especially as that what determines their income stream.

nickrl
06/2/2024
10:55
I have been trying to unravel what GRID is actually worth this morning and it's difficult because all the batteries are held in subsidiary companies so you can't actually even the most basic information in the P&L such as revenue.

I did manage to get some form of grip on the NAV though. The model uses as one of its parameters the revenue input per year in £/MW/yr. For 2023 this was 100,000, for 2024 it is 120,000 and then it tails off to a long term value of 100,000

We also know that the current average for all providers for the last year is around 40,000 and that right now it's lower than that. We also know GRID's value is very likely to be below the average due to it having more 1 hour batteries than average. I also suspect the average is even lower as Ben Guest said in a webinar a couple of years ago he preferred not to compete in capacity market tenders as that just meant the winner was the biggest loser as they bid the lowest price.

I therefore conclude the published NAV is way higher than it should be in my mind. Ben says he's got third party long term numbers broadly in line with the existing numbers. That may be, but they look punchy to me and the market has reached the same conclusion.

cc2014
06/2/2024
09:34
James Carthew is a cheerleader for the industry he has nothing objective to say
genista71
05/2/2024
17:56
James Carthew on a moan that current share price fall is down to the ESO

hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/james-carthew-blame-imbalanced-national-grid-for-battery-funds-woes/a2435535

Not sure the blame game against the ESO will help the situation both BESS and the ESO are now dependant on each other. Remember its only 12mths ago that GRID said Balancing Mechanism was a small part of the revenue stack yet now it along with wholesale trading are the key revenue drivers. The ESO recognised that BESS would be a key part of grid management as its generation mix evolves towards renewables and have a roadmap that will gradually favour BESS over CCGTs through 2024. So the ESO aren't trying to drive BESS off the system but their first priority is to keep the grid stable and for decades they've done this through big fossil fuelled power stations so we are in a period of evolution. This could be a good entry price but im holding back until there is more visibility that revenue is improving.

nickrl
05/2/2024
14:04
Also I think Edison is paid research so one could surmise that any forecasts within would probably have been guided by the company.
bsdjj
Chat Pages: 38  37  36  35  34  33  32  31  30  29  28  27  Older

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