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GRID Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc

68.20
1.20 (1.79%)
20 Jun 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Gresham House Energy Storage Fund Plc GRID London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
1.20 1.79% 68.20 16:35:28
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
67.80 67.80 68.10 68.20 67.00
more quote information »
Industry Sector
EQUITY INVESTMENT INSTRUMENTS

Gresham House Energy Sto... GRID Dividends History

Announcement Date Type Currency Dividend Amount Ex Date Record Date Payment Date
17/11/2023InterimGBP0.01837507/12/202308/12/202321/12/2023
07/09/2023InterimGBP0.01837514/09/202315/09/202329/09/2023
05/05/2023InterimGBP0.01837518/05/202319/05/202308/06/2023
10/02/2023InterimGBP0.017502/03/202303/03/202327/03/2023
31/10/2022InterimGBP0.017524/11/202225/11/202216/12/2022
25/05/2022InterimGBP0.017506/10/202207/10/202228/10/2022
04/05/2022InterimGBP0.017512/05/202213/05/202227/05/2022
14/02/2022InterimGBP0.017503/03/202204/03/202225/03/2022
15/11/2021InterimGBP0.017525/11/202126/11/202117/12/2021
01/07/2021InterimGBP0.017508/07/202109/07/202130/07/2021
28/04/2021InterimGBP0.017513/05/202114/05/202104/06/2021
19/02/2021InterimGBP0.017504/03/202105/03/202126/03/2021
27/10/2020InterimGBP0.017505/11/202006/11/202011/12/2020
01/09/2020InterimGBP0.017510/09/202011/09/202025/09/2020
11/05/2020InterimGBP0.017521/05/202022/05/202012/06/2020
17/02/2020InterimGBP0.0127/02/202028/02/202020/03/2020
26/11/2019InterimGBP0.0105/12/201906/12/201920/12/2019
28/08/2019InterimGBP0.01105/09/201906/09/201920/09/2019

Top Dividend Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 17/6/2024 12:29 by cc2014
For those who have an interest in trade flow someone has been absorbing every sell they can get since the day after the tolling agreement was announced.

Very many of the trades which are marked as buys when they are sells with MM's offering prices very close to the offer.

On the face of it one wonders how long this can go on but the actual net sell volume going through GRID is small by comparison with the market cap or even someone looking to pick up just a couple of million of shares.

Broadly this long term buyer is very patient and being successful but the bid keeps creeping up albeit at a snails pace.

Most of the real sell trades are relatively small. With a few exceptions most of the sells are less than 10k shares. These are probably a mixture of PI's and institutions but whoever they are from it's clear there is no large institutional seller.

I suspect the large buyer is working to some formula based on a compromise of volume/price/time. They are in no hurry but if they don't get enough volume the price moves up slightly. Occasionally some larger blocks of 250k or 375k or whatever go through. The buyer seems to absorb these without thinking perhaps because what now seems like a large block at 250k isn't a large block at all if you are looking to collect even 3% of the share capital which would be 17 million shares.


My thought process is that post the tolling agreement, GRID have effectively fixed revenues on half the portfolio and this provides a price below which the share price won't drop. I guess this to be around 60p because anything below that I would expect Octopus to consider bidding for the whole of GRID. They must have run the numbers on it several times already.

GLA
Posted at 14/6/2024 11:34 by llef
CC2014, as I understand it, I think Battery storage and compressed air storage are slightly different animals, aimed at different markets.

If you look at today for example, wind electricity has been turned off for large parts of the early morning hours, and the wind farms compensated for their loss of earnings. This is despite the fact that the wholesale price of electricity has been positive through the night.
When this happens, its usually because too much electricity is being produced in Scotland relative to demand there, and there is insufficient transmission capacity to take the surplus to England.
I think compressed air storage can/will be built out in large size in Scotland, so that excess overnight electricity there can be stored there, and then released to Scotland and England during the day when the demand is greater.
The compressed air facilities will be paid by the Grid to use the electricity overnight, as this will be cheaper than paying the wind turbines to turn off.

So the compressed air owners will have 2 streams of income:
a) grid payments above,
b) buying electricity cheaply overnight and releasing it at higher prices during
the day, (similar to battery arbitrage economics).

(They might also have a 3rd income stream, whereby the Grid pays them not to release the electricity straight away, but store it for a couple of days for periods when forecast renewable energy generation is low).
Posted at 06/6/2024 07:40 by cc2014
There was one question in the presentation which I think worth repeating. I'm long so perhaps I'm looking for things that aren't there.

The question was broadly something along the lines of "if ORIT are contracting for half GRID's output"... "why wouldn't they seek to acquire that output themselves"

Which GRID couldn't answer of course as it was not for them to answer. But they did say Octopus needed 1500 capacity vs the 1000ish they have taken from GRID.


As a shareholder I'm left wondering why Octopus don't just offer 90p for GRID? Conjecture I know, but maybe this is a good way for Octopus to take a "look, see" first.


it will be interesting to see where the share price goes as the market settles down and has had time to digest this. I suspect a bit higher yet.


(Also I note we are back to negative pricing last night as we had some wind)
Posted at 05/6/2024 18:03 by pj84
"Christopher Brown, an analyst at JP Morgan Cazenove, estimated the deal with Octopus could lift GRID’s annual revenues to about £70m and see it reinstate a covered dividend of 4.7p per share, more than expected though well below the 7.35p it originally aimed to pay last year.

‘Overall this is an interesting transaction that locks in an acceptable level of revenue at a time of uncertainty, and while the portfolio is being ramped up,’ he said."

Even a reduced dividend of around 4.7p would give a dividend yield of almost 8% at the current share price.
Posted at 24/5/2024 08:45 by cc2014
That's a bit harsh CousinIT although a fair challenge.

I have made lots of posts about DGI9 but I'm not sure I ever fell in love with DGI9.

I sold all mine for about a half point loss as I posted at the time at 40p IIRC on the day DGI9 issued the outcome of the DGI9 tender.

With DGI9 I knew I was playing with fire and it was the riskiest thing in my portfolio. There were lots of red and amber flags over DGI9


I have reflected on your challenge and I don't see red flags here. There are some amber ones. Is the NAV over-egged. Probably. Is GH's fee reasonable given the NAV. No. The paying of unfunded dividend was another one.

However, what I do have is real time data on the revenue streams and visibility on ESO objectives.

My risk here is not what other posters keep bashing on about but some new technology which produces a step change in battery prices (Sodium based batteries?)
or potentially Lithium halving in price (although that does not look likely) or possibly at the margin lower takeup of electric cars or heat pumps.

Or looking at it another way. If there's no money to be made in batteries why is the worldwide buildout so strong? For sure buildout costs are lower than they were but GRID are doubling their MWh now at those low build out costs. In fact GRID's buildout costs are going to be even lower than competitors as they don't need to pay for a new grid connection for much of it. For sure older installations cost more and we should take the average but anyone buying now is paying only 57p a share. As Stiefel says that's significant less than new buildout costs.

It is my guess that the share price will stick down here for a while. I would expect a pickup as confidence arises as the new Mwh comes on stream and as volumes continue to pickup in the BM as skips slowly fall.
Posted at 22/5/2024 12:19 by nickrl
@CC2014 some energy companies are building big BEDS for their own energy mgt trading accounts and wont be participating in the ancillary mkt. GRID have about half exposed to wholesale only unlike HEIT which have committed everything to the BM. They have benefited from having 2hr units but with GRID and others catching up i suspect the pricing there will be commoditised later in the year. Also even with high wind the grid cant move the power South so its constrained off and thus less need for frequency response.
Agree with @CC2014 that short term this isn't going to improve and see little prospect of more than 2p dividend from next year so share price is in the right ball park.
Posted at 15/4/2024 20:54 by cc2014
A couple of points.

The BESS index does not include capacity market contracts so that's additional revenue to add. I do not have time to go through them all but Thurcroft is an extra 7.1% revenue, Couper Angus an extra 20%, Port of Tyne is an extra 59%. All for the month to date. If you look at Port of Tyne for the last year it's an extra 70% on average.

At your starting point of 740 MW GRID had 837 MWh

By the end of 2024 GRID will have 1117 MW / 1817 MWh

Note the doubling broad doubling of MWh as GRID are upgrading many of their batteries to 2hr, which is quick to do as it doesn't require a grid connection and will in itself bring in more revenue than just the new battery as 2 hour batteries are more attractive to the ESO.

GRID say they can do this and more with no extra debt.. That kind of suggests nearly everything is built and relying on grid connections but whilst I take them at their word, I also take it with a pinch of salt.


You are right about slippage. That's on on-going problem
Posted at 15/4/2024 19:51 by marktime1231
Let's be careful reading too much in to figures in isolation. Thank you, but that linkedin chart from modo doesn't show earning rates before Q2 of 2023, at which stage operating income cover of the previous 1.75p quarterly dividend fell from x 0.97 to below x 0.5 I think. According to my looking at this back in February the dividend hasn't been covered since Q4 2022, when the average asset earning rate may well have been over £100k / MW / yr.

Actually you raise an interesting point ... why haven't BESS trusts been publishing these transparent income figures so we can judge performance and outlook directly? I have been asking GRID to include them in trading and audited reports for three years, deaf ears.

Actually it should be relatively straight forward to set an income breakeven benchmark.

4 x 1.8375p dividends over 569.55 million shares means GRID needs to earn £41.862M pa bottom line distributable profit. Ignore buybacks. Across 740MW of operational assets that requires £56.6K of distributable profit per MW per year to cover the current (former) dividend. So let's not cheer too loudly that gross revenues appear to have bounced back to around £50K according to modo.

DISTRIBUTABLE

Not revenue, not ebitda or operating income, not net income but distributable post tax profit. The margin ratios are severe ...

To illustrate the difference, in FY 2022 gross revenues were £62.7M, operating income or ebitda was £48.8M, reported net income presumably after debt interest was £32.8M and bottom line profit after a further £8M or so "admin expenses" was £25.3M. Credit drawn has risen from £50M to £110M. Management admin fees have risen in line with AUM.

There are too many variables to accurately calculate the revenues required to deliver £41.862M of distributable profit. For convenience lets assume x 2, which means each asset needs to earn revenues of £113.2K / MW / year to restore the dividend.

Over 740MW assets. Of course if GRID energise the revised reduced target of 1,027 MW by year end the revenue run rate target reduces to £81.6K / MW / yr.

Beware that GRID said in a previous trading update that should the revised reduced asset target of 1027MW be met the FY operating income would cover the dividend, not distributable profit. So £50K where revenues are now, actually not even £70K where revenues were this time last year, does not deliver.

It should be pretty obvious it is not just a fall in prices scuppering GRID, it is the high debt cost, the high admin fees, but most of all the massive shortfall caused by the failure to deliver the pipeline ... just a year ago when GRID reported on FY2022 they were still outlooking 1.5GW of operational capacity through 2024.
Posted at 07/2/2024 12:15 by cc2014
@nickrl Many thanks for your latest post. It created a lightbulb moment for me.

This is what I came up with.

Based on the BESS data GRID has got 34k/MW/yr inc. the CM contracts for the last 30 days. The BESS data does not contain all the GRID batteries as far as I can see but I've got to start somewhere.

So,

Revenue based on 740MW currently installed £25m
Interest at 8% on debt of £110m £9m
Running costs inc. fund manager fee at 1.25% £10m
Profit £6m
equals EPS of 1p vs dividend before axe of 7.35p


If I re-run based on 45k/MW/yr (which seems optimistic given how much is coming on stream) and 2024 ramped to 1072MW and assume it all came on stream on Jan 1st which is obviously hasn't and add £20m of debt for the build out and drop the NAV to 100p I get an EPS of 5.35p vs the revised dividend of 5.51p


Not only is the spot price hurting GRID but it's strategy of going spot rather than fixed price capacity market contracts is also hurting it. Only 29% of GRID's revenue is CM, the lowest of the major 3. GSF's is 42% as it has made a far greater effort to match it's long term revenue with long term cost of build.
Posted at 17/11/2023 08:55 by speedsgh
Declaration of Dividend -

Gresham House Energy Storage Fund PLC (LSE: GRID) is pleased to announce a dividend of 1.8375p per Ordinary Share for the period from 1 July 2023 to 30 September 2023. The dividend will be paid on 21 December 2023 to Shareholders on the register as at the close of business on 7 December 2023. The ex-dividend date is 6 December 2023.

Any such dividend payment to Shareholders may take the form of either dividend income or "qualifying interest income" which may be designated as an interest distribution for UK tax purposes and therefore subject to the interest streaming regime applicable to investment trusts. Of this dividend declared of 1.8375 pence per Ordinary Share, 0.3375 pence is declared as dividend income with 1.5 pence treated as qualifying interest income.

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