Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[vworlds_cambridge] 12/10/2022 09:49

I guess we'll need to see the details, but what grates for me is the potentially much worse treatment of renewables trusts compared to the oil and gas sector. I'm okay with some kind of unit price cap in principle, but I wonder if it will be ridiculously low. In any case, this is the last UK share for me from now on.

[jimmywilson612] 12/10/2022 09:38

well it still provides income so if that's your main goal I wouldn't worry about the movement of the share price, so long as you're happy with the yield you get upon buying.

[c3479z] 12/10/2022 09:32

thought this might represent a safe investment to provide income now I'm retired until the goalposts have been moved; where were the politicians 2 years ago when the price of oil was below 20$ a barrel- seems there was no windfall help for power generators at that time....

[marktime1231] 11/10/2022 13:25

Yes well observed. That is almost like saying a 25% windfall tax for the next 3 years would be preferable? And yet in three years' time I would rather UKW was enjoying the remaining 12 years of a contract at AR4++ prices.

What leverage does UKW have to stop being bullied in to a low deal. Can't go on strike. Public sympathy, not really. Undermining future investment, well that is more an argument for those with strategic projects like SSE and EDF but it might sway some MPs. I would say the option for UKW was taking action in the courts because even a government is not allowed to rip up contracts without paying proper compensation. It would be easy for UKW to demonstrate what has been taken away.

Who is doing the bullying here, Truss because of a presumed antipathy to renewable energy, or Kweasy because he is desperate for quick billions, or Rees-Mogg because he is Rees-Mogg?

Unfortunately Chris Skidmore who might have brokered a reasonable win-win deal without all the fuss has been sidelined.

[vworlds_cambridge] 11/10/2022 12:58

Well, hopefully the government are playing hardball in the hope of forcing a negotiated deal. In the absence of that, would it be subject to a vote in parliament (and then maybe court action), or straight to the courts?

I'm sure this won't be taken lying down, and (a) the impact should not be worse than for the oil/gas companies (after all, the cost of extracting the oil/gas hasn't increased for them either), and (b) there should be a premium to account for the fact that existing contracts are being ditched.

However, it seems this government is "closer" to the oil/gas companies, than the renewables...

[cc2014] 11/10/2022 12:54

#624 Your position assumes the government will apply the same well-thought our reasoning that you have.

That's how it used to work before Trussonomics. It's all changed now. Trussonomics is given tax increases away which are far less than the cost of increased mortage payments which occur as a consequence and then don't back down when the market tells you it's not a good idea.

[marktime1231] 11/10/2022 12:38

A pity the participants in this negotiation are at loggerheads.

AR4 struck in 2022 at £37.35 for offshore wind (as at 2012) was a significant reduction on previous rounds, reflecting much more efficient technology and scale and lower risk. If that was the government level of offer to novate old style ROC agreements it was understandably rejected, because at current market prices (c. £450/MWh across winter 22/23) the uncapped generators can earn ten years' revenue in one to two years. AR2 struck in 2017 was £57.50 (2012) for Hornsea 2.

Press guessing that the offer on the table, in danger of becoming a cap if the government imposes it with legislation, in the region £50-60/MWh at today's prices would be a discount on historic price agreements. So why would UKW accept that voluntarily or otherwise? This might end up in the courts.

Yes I know UKW is mostly onshore wind. AR4 struck onshore wind at £42.47 (2012) which is £54-55 in today's prices. So the government is offering no premium at all for the lost opportunity. Are its hands tied, would all AR4 contracts need to be upgraded if they went above the AR4 deal?

For reference the recently capped UK domestic energy tariff is the equivalent of £353.1/MWh. Considerable headroom. If the government are free to make a better offer why don't they just do that?

[rolo7] 11/10/2022 07:54

On London's equity markets, Centrica was down 2.68% and Drax Group lost 4.91% after reports that ministers were pushing ahead with plans to cap prices at renewable energy generators, after talks failed to persuade them to voluntarily fix contracts well below the current wholesale rates.

[growthpotential] 10/10/2022 18:54

Seriously man, wtf happened to this

[yump] 10/10/2022 14:19

Income really as not cashing in, but the capital gain is a nice cushion. Am using isa’s as alternative to annuities, so capital can be used if needed, but temporary large capital drops were not in my plans !

[kaffee] 10/10/2022 12:56

yump10 Oct '22 - 12:22 - 618 of 619


Plenty of fat in the div cover to help insulate you from Income drop if the company so wishes - or is it actually wealth drop you are bothered about ?

[jonwig] 10/10/2022 12:29

New subsidies ceased in 2017, but existing ones continue to 2037. The new CFD schemes don't permit excessive profits.

The government will need to legislate to make this cap, and I doubt it would get through parliament. (No windfall on O&G, but a windfall on renewables!!)

The EU is proposing a cap, but it's €180/kWH which is manageable. UK companies are already threatening to stop new investment in the UK and move to the EU. (Some such as FSFL already have EU operations.)

How this government can even contemplate such a move is beyond me, but they've already surpassed themselves so often.

[marktime1231] 10/10/2022 11:56

We had elements of this story already, but we still don't know the detail. The sensible idea of replacing old-style subsidy arrangements with modern CfD price agreements may or may not be a good thing in the long run. It helps solve the current energy affordability issue, where the wholesale price of gas is driving up the market for all other sources of energy. Interfering with market forces though.

Let's assume it takes the short term extreme pricing opportunity away but replaces it with long term eg 15 year price agreements like CfD AR4, which presumably would be an improvement on the base case because it puts a price floor under whatever wind and solar power is generated. It should mean an improvemnt in the value of assets, and make wind and solar a safer long term investment, because it assures predictably higher future income. At the expense of less suplus cash from exploiting the immediate crisis.

The government are not stupidly targetting the renewables industry at a time when we need a conducive investment environment. Because that would be stupid. All the new investments are licensed under modern CfD price auctions already. It is the older sites with renewable obligation credits etc which are affected. The government might, however, be enjoying the sector getting clobbered when it comes to negotiating future pricing.

Meanwhile we are enjoying a period of sustained contribution from wind energy which must be good from UKW.

[yump] 08/10/2022 09:49

Depends a bit on whether a limit on the energy prices for the final owners of the renewable sites, affects the investments by developers, if they are different businesses.

Presumably a limit would also put a cap on the price that (eg) UKW would pay to buy a site. That must feedback to the actual development in the first place.

[tuftymatt] 08/10/2022 09:02

It is laughable really that green energy is something the government needs to be supporting but now is fighting against it if these measures come into play!!

[coxsmn] 08/10/2022 08:45

The UK government is pressing ahead with plans to cap revenues that renewable electricity generators are making from sky-high wholesale power prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Companies generating power from wind and solar fear the plans, similar to proposals already announced by the European Union, will effectively amount to a windfall tax on renewable energy. The businesses involved in renewable power generation that could be affected include EDF Energy, RWE, ScottishPower and SSE.https://www.ft.com/content/5187f160-eecd-4d7f-b523-82f973bc68a7

[yump] 05/10/2022 13:16

Sorry to hear about your planning issue - hopefully can be resolved.

A “spoiled view” from somewhere seems to be a common reason for planning issues.

Clearly many peoples’ “self-entitled rights” take preference over the planet’s needs. Even when they’ve got net curtains and can’t see out anyway.

[topvest] 02/10/2022 12:13

Thanks all on the thoughts regarding solar panels / Ripple - will take a look at it.

[2naive] 02/10/2022 09:47

"....my solar panels idea has come to a grinding halt...."

Have you looked into Ripple Energy?

hxxps://rippleenergy.com/

I live in a Grade II listed property in a conservation area, and not being able to install any hardware here I've bought into Ripple (which basically puts the hardware somewhere else).

[jasperthemonkeygod] 01/10/2022 23:42

Seconding hedgehog, £200 8 week.planning app, £200-300 cost of drawings

[chestnuts] 01/10/2022 20:34

The drop could be because of the bombing of the pipe lines of Russia, because all of a sudden Wind turbines, oil pipes Oil rigs could be attacked.

[hedgehog 100] 01/10/2022 19:49

Topvest,

Well done for looking to install solar panels, which should be good for you, and the environment.

I would urge you not to give up on the idea. Applying for a simple planning permission shouldn't cost much, not should it take very long. And the local planning authority staff should be very helpful.

Obviously there's a balance between the aesthetics of older buildings and the appearance of new additions, both adjoining and nearby. But as long as the visual impact is reasonable you should receive approval ... especially as the panels are at the rear. And you also have the right of appeal if necessary, with the l.p.a. having to pay your costs if they lose ... which they should bear in mind.

Is the listed building opposite the only real issue, or do you live in a conservation area? Either way, it seems to me that you have a good chance of approval.

Good luck!

[topvest] 01/10/2022 19:15

Unbelievable drop in alternative asset investment trusts this week and even more so on real estate. Starting to look like Alasdair Nairn's prediction in his book of "The end of Everything Bubble" is correct - well worth a read if you want to get depressed. Alasdair Nairn is a very well reputed investor and previous right hand man to Templeton so he's worth reading.