Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[marksp2011] 15/11/2023 07:54

£52 a year is fraud cost

[marktime1231] 13/11/2023 19:43

Yes, but.

The generation from renewable assets at those cheap AR4 and AR5 prices doesn't come on stream for 3-4 years. Earlier CfD auction rounds and ROC prices were much higher.

Offshore wind in AR5 was capped at £44 in 2012 prices so it will be £55+ now. And that was the lowest cap across all forms of energy.

How much of your electricity bill is the raw cost of the electricity, and how much is billing, service, the grid, network losses, profit, VAT tax and windfall supertax, climate levies and subsidies, the cost of OFGEM, smart metering, supporting defaulters, are we repaying those universal £67 per month handouts from last winter, and so on.

But yes, when the UK wholesale price of electricity has been mostly in the £50-100 range since April it is disgusting that households are still paying such high tariffs. Even when reviewed quarterly it is taking too long for what we pay to come down, the OFGEM price-capping regime is working against us and preventing competition.

It is even more annoying to hear lobbying for energy prices to stay high because of winter demand for gas. Perversely gas and electricity from CCGT should now be pretty cheap, it is "noble" generation from the likes of UKW which is hurting. In 2023 H1 the average price realised by UKW was £192/MWh.

Are you on the best tariff? Last month I paid 19p/kWh on average (Octopus Flux).

[yf23_1] 12/11/2023 22:04

AR5 £44 means 4.4p/kwh

..and I'm paying 35p/kwh !

[marktime1231] 10/11/2023 17:19

That is an article from Bloomberg quoting "people familiar with the matter", ahead of the UK setting price caps for the next auction round.

The recently completed AR5 was capped at £44 (2012) for offshore wind and was shunned with zero bids meaning 4-5GW was not forwarded in to development. Winning proposals from previous rounds have been cancelled because their strike price is no longer economic. However several smaller onshore wind projects mostly in Scotland from the likes of SSE and RWE were awarded in AR5 at £52.29 (2012).

So clearly AR6 price caps have to be higher to attract bids, otherwise UK 2030 and 2050 net zero plans will not be met. Industry talk is that project costs are 40% higher than previously expected, pushing the cap over £60. Bloomberg are suggesting £70+. Why this is being called a subsidy is a bit strange, it is more about pricing to cover the actual costs. With limits raised bids should fly in.

Quite what it means for UKW is hard to say. The windfarm stakes it has acquired on old ROC terms are jolly lucrative compared to modern CfD arrangements. Pressure from windfall taxes, REMA, new capacity coming on through, and adding ever more European interconnectors in the interests of "energy security" ... could mean at some stage UKW will be tipped in to agreeing cheaper CfD arrangements or risk being shut out of the capacity market. Rising CfD prices are good news then perhaps, countered by the market eventually being swamped with supply. Meanwhile UKW can continue to rake in the cash.

[igoe104] 10/11/2023 14:54

Interesting.

UK Prepares to Hike Wind Farm Prices as Developers Struggle

The UK government is preparing to offer significantly higher subsidies for new offshore wind farms to get the country’s clean-power strategy back on track after developers shunned a previous auction.

[nickrl] 07/11/2023 14:16

power prices have clearly been a big driver of excessive free cash here and whilst they have fallen back considerably near term trend is power prices remain above UKWs base case. Even if some of the geopolitical issues settle down its becoming evident that power prices need to be maintained at a high level to encourage net zero transition so medium term things look favourable. We should also get another decent leg up on ROC/CfD prices so breaking the RPI link to the divi is low risk currently.

Personally id like to see where REMA is going as im wary that it wont set off a race to the bottom similar to what has happened in the BESS space but that could well get stalled until after next GE now.

[marktime1231] 07/11/2023 11:43

Tempus has been reading here, #652 almost?

We have enjoyed a good run toward ex-div, yes let's hope the buyback and the run up to the special dividend keeps things moving back to the 160's. Actually a low CPI print next week will do some of the legwork.

[tuftymatt] 07/11/2023 11:34

Yes the buyback has helped this one wake up that's for sure.

If we can get some sort of Santa rally then 160 around Christmas doesn't sound impossible in my opinion.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[2wild] 05/11/2023 18:28

On Friday the UK 10 year guilt close below 4.3% and the 5 year below 4.1%. Reversing months of rising bond yields.

UK W could easily rise to 160P During next 6 weeks. And hopefully a Santa rally on top.

[yump] 03/11/2023 16:43

Loads of these income stocks have hit the top of their downward channel after yesterday and today. Hit it much faster than previously, so perhaps bottoming out ?

I guess we’ll only know after the event if the funds start moving money back in.

[marktime1231] 03/11/2023 16:11

Finishing strongly please can we stick above 140p and progress from here. Good reward for those who saw the 130's as a bargain, including the Board for their buyback decision.

[tuftymatt] 02/11/2023 15:33

Thanks for that speedsgh 👍🏻

It's good to hear the company info read out by someone as against having to read it.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[speedsgh] 02/11/2023 15:16

Some interesting discussion on UKW in the latest Money Makers podcast...



From 31m28s to 37m31s

[igoe104] 31/10/2023 08:53

Increased dividend payments start kicking in in February with a 3.43p payment. Then 2.5p for the next four payments.

[marksp2011] 31/10/2023 08:27

I have stopped buying these (I doubt the market will notice :) )

They are now 3% of my SIPP and mirror BSIF which has the same weighting.

I have small holdings in NESF and GSF too that I am still buying on monthly regular investment at £750 each

[tuftymatt] 31/10/2023 07:53

Yes this one will be back above 160 just as soon as interest rates start falling and the market wakes up again.

Those that can buy now will be rewarded with a very good divi in the short term and eventually decent capital growth too.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[masurenguy] 31/10/2023 07:50

I agree. Current shareprice is also circa 18% below NAV.

Unaudited NAV as of 30 September 2023 is £3,845.0mn (165.8p per share).The Company also announces an interim dividend of 2.19p per share for the quarter ended 30 September 2023.

[igoe104] 26/10/2023 13:32

Excellent update, and a lovely dividend increase, Happy holder.

[marktime1231] 26/10/2023 13:31

The board sharing our frustration at the wide discount to NAV, which has held up at 166p thanks to the most recent acquisitions. Emphasising the quality of cash flow, covering the previous dividend x 2, and that was before the latest additions added 10% to income generating capacity.

A canny move then to announce a "special" dividend uplift to 3.43p in the next quarter, when the coffers will be overflowing. 10p next year is 7.5% on a 130p share price when it was announced, and puts UKW firmly in the high yield bracket. And an immediate buyback, a modest c. 3% of capital but will add more than 10% to typical daily trade. That is impressive total return for not much risk.

I'm sure the UKW board would like to continue adding assets from free cash flow when choice targets become available. I suspect even after today's announcements there could be around £100M pa surplus, but not so much borrowing headroom perhaps. So I don't think this signals the end of ambitions to expand, but for now the priority is to try and restore shareholder value. Let's hope this stimulates a share price recovery, if not from institutions then retail investors, surely UKW will be top of the tips this weekend.

[shandypants2] 26/10/2023 11:08

well the NAV is 165p so worst case 18p reduction still leaves this at 147p. Current share price is 133 so still over 10% upside.
As it is likely there will be a Labour govt, who are supportive of green energy, the risk is low IMHO.

[jimmywilson612] 26/10/2023 10:18

Nick, you've peaked my interest so I read through the annual report for #UKW

Page 30 talks about the downside and a potential reduction of 18p off the current NAV

"it is assumed that the Government is successful in implementing its plan in its entirety and the REMA consultation does not conclude in significantly different market design. In this scenario, the long term power price is lower than the base case
used to calculate the Company’s NAV."

I'd be interested to see if this estimate turns out to be undercooking or overcooking the result from the REMA consultation.

[nickrl] 26/10/2023 09:51

@jimmy the risk with REMA is a split market for renewables removes the marginal pricing of gas keeping wholesale prices higher and potentially ends up like batteries where its turning into a race to the bottom.

[jimmywilson612] 26/10/2023 09:28

On the flip side - alot of wind development sites aren't progressing due to rising costs & the windfall tax on green power means I personally think the REMA review will have a limited impact on the price for renewables.

It's not like the UK is being flooded with renewable developments, and the clock is ticking to decarbonise electricity & the reduce the reliance on foreign countries for Oil/Gas etc.