Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[petewy] 02/11/2022 17:27

Thanks Mark

[marktime1231] 02/11/2022 13:05

The windfall tax offset by investment tax breaks on the same terms as oil and gas, easily zeroed considering the rate at which UKW and others are spending on developments?

Capping the price consumers pay while supertaxing generators does not cut the wholesale price in the market, so underlying inflation is still being fuelled and government debt costs remain high. We need a system in step with Europe where we are so heavily interconnected.

The good news is we appear to be having a record wind generation period. The bad news is that overnight hour-ahead wholesale prices dipped below £0/MWh, so we were PAYING France to take 3GW of surplus wind power, while still burning some gas ourselves. Face and palm.

The better solution surely a (voluntary) re-auction of assets from old ROC and FIT subsidies to 15-year price cap-and-floor contracts.

I am still not sure whether the new legislation has been put through, the sponsor Rees-Mogg was sacked between parliamentary approval and Royal Assent.

[petewy] 02/11/2022 09:59

Good question

[bodgeman] 02/11/2022 08:03

Will the return of the idea of windfall tax on renewables (rather than profit caps) with a reinvestment opt-out lead to a lower dividend and a growth in NAV?

[marktime1231] 26/10/2022 12:41

Shapps a surprise, one of a bunch of oddballs in the new cabinet.

Fingers crossed for credible appointments at Minister level for Energy and Climate.

Meanwhile renewables are bouncing back.

[marktime1231] 25/10/2022 13:16

Unaudited NAV crawled up to 155p as at 30 Sep 22 from 153.6p in June.

Another 1.93p dividend in the pipeline.

Orderly chair succession.

The manager getting remunerated with huge share awards which will hurt if they offload a chunk on the market again.

Rumours that Rees-Mogg is on his way out, so who might replace him, and where does that leave the Energy Prices Bill 2022-23 "emergency legislation" being rushed through parliament in his name? Approved by both houses, pending royal assent. Flawed without detail on how a Cost Plus Revenue Limit might be applied to renewables, as it stands a bully-boy's charter.

If Rees-Mogg is out that should be received as good news for the sector.

[kenwrong] 20/10/2022 16:24

Greencoast wind is picked out by former fund manager Ken Baksh. His wife has held for years in her SIPP and he rates it

[dagoberia] 20/10/2022 15:59

Is this jump due to a new PM coming in that could re assess the cap on renewable energy prices?

[bodgeman] 19/10/2022 12:05

I guess all the renewables are going to be drifting listlessly until this government makes a definitive statement on the renewable energy price cap. Just hope it's fair and clear an not like one of black adders cunning plans hatched with baldrick.

[marktime1231] 17/10/2022 13:03

Hunt intruding in the debate how to design energy price agreements from April 2023, making it a Treasury vs BEIS row so wet cloth vs dry cloth.



" ... looking beyond April, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor have agreed that it would be irresponsible for the government to continue exposing the public finances to unlimited volatility in international gas prices. A Treasury-led review will therefore be launched to consider how to support households and businesses with energy bills after April 2023. The objective of the review is to design a new approach that will cost the taxpayer significantly less than planned whilst ensuring enough support for those in need. The Chancellor also said in his statement that any support for businesses will be targeted to those most affected, and that the new approach will better incentivise energy efficiency."

So Hunt has taken charge of energy price support post-April 2023, in order to minimise the taxpayer cost. With the backing of the current prime minister, who it seems is no longer in charge of her own government.

The retreat from hard-right might see the replacement of the aggressive Rees-Mogg hopefully with Chris Skidmore. Where does that leave the Energy Price Support bill tabled last week, as I understand it has the support of the new chancellor through to Apr 2023.

In which case renewable generators inc. UKW still face a CPRL price cap this winter ... well actually only Jan-Mar 2023 because the new bill is not scheduled to come in until January, if it gets through the Commons. The CPRL remains subject to consultation amid reports it could be anywhere £50-£160/MWh. No-one really knows.

[tuftymatt] 17/10/2022 12:26

I think he will try to control the whole windfall tax side of things in a much more realistic way.
No doubt huge profits will lead to a bit more going to the Government but it has to be managed in a way that allows sensible levels of shareholder returns and investment.

[bodgeman] 17/10/2022 11:59

Hunt has announced a new TREASURY lead review of the energy market. I would imagine that would be more sensible than JRmogg review. Hopefully a more pragmatic approach that will be more green friendly forward looking.

[coxsmn] 15/10/2022 16:23

You need to look what the EU is doing and what we plan to replicate i.e. cap on renewable energy producershttps://renews.biz/80831/eu-ministers-agree-renewables-revenue-cap/

[edwardt] 14/10/2022 13:11

Totally agree

[marktime1231] 13/10/2022 13:05

How could the UK operate a significantly different price cap system to our European neighbours? Even if CPRL is a temporary emergency measure an import-export price gap could set up an energy trading nightmare. We are grid-connected to Norway, Ireland, Netherlands, Belgium and France, building a link to Denmark.

[donald pond] 13/10/2022 10:11

IIRC less than 18 months ago Afry, the power price predictors used by most funds, were predicting power would be sold for around £50 increasing by 2% a year for the foreseeable future. As with most, they just extrapolate long term trends and get caught out by black swans. But that power prices could be fixed at double recent assumptions suggests to me things are OK. The other issue of course is gilt rates: what is a reasonable rate of return for a renewable or infrastructure fund when gilts yield 5%?

[nerja] 13/10/2022 09:11

Jonwig yes but at least the ones that are installed already would be on for a reasonable return

[jonwig] 13/10/2022 08:53

nerja the EU's price cap is €180/kWh. A lower UK one would see investment migrate.

[nerja] 13/10/2022 08:40

Not in this yet but this worth a read

hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/government-says-renewable-price-cap-not-a-windfall-tax-funds-selloff-may-be-over/a2399655?re=101920&refea=1488120

efferies’ investment companies analyst Matthew Hose said the statement implied a price cap of between £100 to £160/MWh, or at least the double the level indicated in weekend newspaper reports. ‘If the former was used for the cap this would limit downside to NAVs of no more than 5%, while the latter would result in little or no downside given that the funds’ 2023 forecasts are almost entirely below this level.

‘For example, UKW has a 2023 valuation assumption of c.£110/MWh before PPA [power purchase agreement discounts],’ Hose told investors.

[grim] 12/10/2022 19:28

re 632: Get onto your MP about that solution

[grim] 12/10/2022 19:28

re 632: Get onto your MP about that solution

[marktime1231] 12/10/2022 12:27

Oh lordy ...

"The precise mechanics of the temporary Cost-Plus Revenue Limit will be subject to a consultation to be launched shortly. The government has been working closely with industry on the detail of the proposal, ahead of it coming into force from the start of 2023. It will ensure consumers pay a fair price for low carbon energy and has the potential to save billions of pounds for British billpayers, while allowing generators to cover their costs, plus receive an appropriate revenue."

How can you introduce legislation without being able to say what it is!

Government cost-plus contracting in the 1970's and 1980's style making an ugly comeback? Define an "appropriate" revenue go on why don't you. Appalling.

So this is not a windfall tax, presumably because Truss is on record that she is agin it. This is legislation which would rip up existing lawful long-term contractual agreements. Things which even parliament cannot change without full compensation. Not even by calling it emergency and temporary.

The better solution was also mentioned ...

"We are also legislating for powers that would allow us to consider running a voluntary Contracts for Difference process for existing generators to take place in 2023. A voluntary contract would grant generators longer-term revenue certainty and safeguard consumers from further price rises."

So run an AR5 CfD process to novate old contracts, that would set prices with which all voluntary participants agree but minimised by fair commercial auction. Let the market decide.