Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[probablynotphil] 10/6/2025 14:23:05

Yeah it is a cross the board on all infrastructure trusts. I've finally broken even on HICL.

Onwards and upwards from here, but who knows?

My break even for UKW is 126p, so I'm still a bit off. Jumped in too earlier last year sadly.

[woodhawk] 10/6/2025 12:02:03

Yes, quite a few of my renewables seem to be breaking out in the past couple of days. Like to see NESF push on a bit!

[tuftymatt] 10/6/2025 11:56:12

Yes like others in the sector too.

It's been a very long time coming but maybe we can start thinking about back to where we were a year ago as a short term target.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[woodhawk] 10/6/2025 09:25:07

Breaking out of the down channel?

[supearich] 08/6/2025 15:34:08

They need to introduce far more Wind Turbines to the west of the UK, where the Ocean winds blow in at twice the speed of inland & east coast winds all the time. Will need all the additional inland infrastructure for distribution purposes but got to be better than the current arrangements.

[nickrl] 08/6/2025 10:05:25

@specto all three of those issues are in play of course. Zonal pricing is apparently favoured by Miliband as it gets him his bill cuts in some areas with Scotland and North England doing the best (allegedly) and the South paying more. So as thats Labours heartland wining he wont be bothered about higher prices towards the South. Call it levelling up! Even this has 2-3 year timeline but comes with risks as has played out in Sweden and Norway where the price has risen quite high in the South and caused political unrest. It wont change any of the existing subsidy regimes and given UKW has most of its power sold in forward mkts in the short term wont affect earnings. Exactly when the results of REMA consultations (started April 22) is going to be announced isn't clear but if they come down in favour of zonal pricing suspect there will be a hit to all the renewables trusts so have been holding back on anymore tops here currently.

[spectoacc] 07/6/2025 20:02:47

Unless someone can unlock the key to productivity gains, & economic growth, the left-behinds (particularly where I operate, in the North East) will keep bouncing between the "other" party and their promises.

The Red Wall was Labour, then it was for Boris, then back to Labour, next it's seemingly for Farage. They'll be disappointed at every turn.

Where does this leave renewables? The energy transition isn't going away, but there needs to be a degree of political risk priced, whether that's to subsidy, planning, or local pricing.

[nickrl] 07/6/2025 14:21:22

@specto precisely they are just shooting in all directions to click the right buttons with the disaffected but when it comes down to a GE people wont go all in which is why a see a coalition as likely outcome but we are long way from that still.

[marksp2011] 07/6/2025 13:51:48

You missed out no tax for veterans of the armed forces and nhs workers

[spectoacc] 07/6/2025 11:59:49

A week is a long time in politics, can see Reform not being around by the time of the next election.

Farage will probably forget to file the Confirmation Statement with Companies House, then call conspiracy.

Their economic policies started out utterly nuts (last GE), and have moved on to Insane.

Tice saying that all new electricity transmission cables would be going underground was particularly amusing. And now not just tax relief on school fees, but no child benefit cap either.

[cardinal3] 07/6/2025 11:01:52

nickerl

"they will be disruptor"

Nail on head there. Even among themselves!

[williamcooper104] 07/6/2025 10:56:49

If they get into a coalition then it's unlikely to happen but on current polling there's every chance they'll get a majority and then current subsidies absolutely aren't safe

Effectively cancelling them is nuts and will make it harder to fund any infrastructure with private money - but doing stupid stuff is what they're likely to do

[nickrl] 07/6/2025 09:45:52

@WC104 that's highly unlikely although currently they will be disruptor so more likely a coalition would be the outcome. Current subsidies are safe and this is what UKW is built on and they should use any weakness in the mkt for assets to buy them not spaff shareholders cash on buybacks.

[williamcooper104] 07/6/2025 08:22:48

Until we get a Reform government and their promised windfall tax to in effect remove the subsidies and as they cheerfully say run the value of renewables into the ground

[rongetsrich] 07/6/2025 07:56:37

Yes time will tell, but when an average wind speed is above the max speed of a turbine it's not an issue. Add the ever increasing efficiencies and the grid changes and we can see a bright future.

[jimmywilson612] 04/6/2025 10:41:24

Rongertsrich - That's the question isn't it - we don't know as UKW hasn't published anything. But historically when Wind speeds are below average, UKW output has consistently been below this figure.

Month on Month it isn't a big concern as you can't predict the weather. The worry is that for the last few years, wind in the UK has been below the 20 year average.

[nickrl] 04/6/2025 08:32:38

A good proxy for wind production is the level of constraints being imposed by NESO and April was the lowest for the year so far. May was much higher and June has nearly equalled Aprils level and we are less than 4 days in. So i would suggest we will see some improvement when averaged out over the year.

[rongetsrich] 04/6/2025 06:26:20

The wind speed reduction, Jimmy, how much of a reduction in generation by UKW?

[marktime1231] 03/6/2025 10:36:44

And another trim on that price spike, now sold all the extra bought during the tariff-induced slump in April. The income is so good I think I will stick with the rest and hope for some good news.

[jimmywilson612] 02/6/2025 10:59:38

Wind speed for April still showing a significant decrease to 20 year average, coupled with UKW ability to trend even below the wind forecast will result in a decrease in NAV.

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[kiwi2007] 01/6/2025 21:25:51

@nickri..thanks... it all seems pretty complex to me.. maybe I shouldn't really be a shareholder here unless I fully undrstand it.. which, to be honest, I don't.
Divi's good but. I'm coming to think that all this green climate change malarky's a bit of a scam myself.

[nickrl] 31/5/2025 17:27:07

@wad collector when prices go negative its because renewable generators need to ensure they get to generate as thats the way they collect the subsidies. So in reality they aren't giving anything away they are paying out a few quid to ensure they receive upwards of £200/MWh from ROCs in the case of UKW. UKWs whole investability is its income stream from the various subsidy regime such that even if average power prices decline to only 10/MWh (they are c72/MWh ytd)they can support the dividend. This seems lost on the mkt who continue to miss the point albeit i get the subsidies don't last for ever. This is why they should have continued to invest in assets not undertake share buybacks which haven't supported the share price

[wad collector] 31/5/2025 13:06:55

If we are to accept that no UK Government is , or will be , willing to directly fund and build further renewable generation and transmission, then they continue to rely on the private sector to take the lead.
In the long run, it has to be sufficiently rewarding to encourage further investment. One of the ludicrous aspects of the current market is that there are times when the suppliers are having to pay to put energy into the grid. This sort of perverse situation is going to continue to dissuade investors. Another spanner in the works is the current delay for connectivity to the grid, some areas have a waiting list as long as 3 YEARS to achieve this. These problems are soluble , with enough government initiative , so I hold here in hope that eventually it will become a profitable enough sector. But I think the timescale is long.

[marktime1231] 30/5/2025 11:50:31

Trimmed my exposure to UKW a little today, enjoying a slightly stronger price, a reflection on the sequence of non-positive news, and frustration at how they are treating private investors, and REMA on the way.

[cyberian] 24/5/2025 13:40:44

The share price has recovered the XD value quite quickly which is very pleasing and hope that there is more upside to come with such an assured dividend yield alongside aggressive buying back of shares continuing.