Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[2wild] 22/11/2024 11:21

Given most renewable infrastructure Investmen Trusts are down around 15 to 20% since July, when UK government 5-year Bond yields fell below 3.5%. I think ukw is down almost entirely due to the sector being out of favor. As I never buy bombs the differential makes no difference to me. Near 9% sustainable inflation linked dividend yield paid quarterly is very attractive.

[nickrl] 21/11/2024 22:11

certainly will be although a lot of UKWs outputs is sold via fixed priced contracts so may not be hugely beneficial. That said forward pricing has picked up across the short term as well so should be able to lock the uptick for next year.

[edwardt] 21/11/2024 16:26

gas price going up a lot should be good for wholesale electricity prices....

[yump] 20/11/2024 14:35

What bothers me is that the official overall wind figures have not been as bad as the generation would suggest, although of course the price is a factor, plus outages. I haven’t got the data or the time to work it out by combining the two over the same periods.

Perhaps ukw has farms in lower than the average wind speed locations.

However on the face of it as someone said, the original budgets seem to be too high if they are persistently not met by big margins.

As a cyclist I don’t like wind, but if it affects my investments thats another matter!

[nickrl] 20/11/2024 14:19

@marktime am like you i want to top up but am feeling that the knives are out for too many currently. Historically UKW had been pretty transparent but like many others once the cheap money ran out the model became flawed and they took too long to respond. The buyback has been catastrophic achieved absolutely zilch with 60m spent to see the share price nearly 15% lower than when they started.

[marktime1231] 20/11/2024 12:08

UKW share price has sunk well below the floor price at which I was going to add again. But I am holding off, the sneaky opaque quarterly update in October has shaken my trust. Not going to add to my holdings until there is a transparent report to confirm good health.

[2wild] 20/11/2024 12:02

Paid just under 126p this morning. Yielding 7.94% paid quarterly linked to inflation. Today's CPI figures highlight rising inflation fueled buy increased electricity prices.

[nickrl] 15/11/2024 21:53

It’s daft UKW benefit from high system price on most ppa contracts so will have improved cash this qtr. Guess though mkt is now anticipating renewables being forced into a separate power pool not linked to gas but can’t see how they can impose that on existing contracts. So am tempted down here to add but need to see some stability first at these levels.

[cellular3] 15/11/2024 18:28

Heading to Covid share price levels without the Covid 😬

[yump] 15/11/2024 14:08

You can see UK wind speed records here (excel download). Interesting to compare them with what UKW report.



I note in the early part of the year, UKW had an availability issue which reduced earnings a bit, on top of the lower wind.

[yump] 29/10/2024 19:06

In theory if the weather is getting more extreme, we shpuld get more wind. However for the UK if the jet stream keeps dipping south, there will be more weather stuck over the country, instead of being carried from the Atlantic quickly from west to east with accompanying turbulence.

[nickrl] 29/10/2024 18:28

@grim wind is naturally variable so as long as average wind speed is with 5 year average range then we should be on target.

[grim] 29/10/2024 18:10

I assume these 'light wind' days are not good for our business?

[marktime1231] 29/10/2024 13:09

Since UKW is one of my biggest holdings the weak share price is hurting. But actually I am secretly pleased we are heading towards a year low, I hope the Board are getting the message. We are not happy with performance and we are really not happy with you.

[petewy] 28/10/2024 18:25

I found the fact shhet with a search UKW Factsheet

[marktime1231] 28/10/2024 13:03

A glib response from a media type on behalf of UKW, that the factsheet can now be found buried away on the website, they obviously don't care.

I remain furious, the update was a deliberate attempt to obscure, to not tell investors in a transparent and accessible way, what we need to know about the performance of UKW. Not behaving in a trustworthy way. I hope others have written to share frustration at the way they have handled communications. Worth keeping in mind when Chair Riches and SID Winser ask for re-election.

Of course we little guys don't really matter, but a bit of grumpy feedback is due. It does feel as though confidence in the share price has been eroded and that affects everyone.

[nickrl] 25/10/2024 15:46

Average power price has been 68/MWh for the trading qtr although exactly what UKW has realised isn't revealed of course but the good news is that the trend has been upwards post qtr end. Overall wind generation has been a mixed bag with some very productive days offset by weak outputs on others so they are probably following trend. As most of their sites aren't reported via Elexon you would have to wade through the ROC spreadsheets to find the detail. Given UKW have this at their finger tips its rather annoying they dont provide more visibility.

On refinancing not sure they have gained an advantage by refinancing some of the debt over 18mths earlier that was on competitive rates although again scant detail provided. Given they aren't doing much with the portfolio we are carrying a lot of additional cost here now

[marktime1231] 25/10/2024 11:00

The 30 Sep 2004 factsheet is now on the UKW website



It contains all the bad news. Q3 generation was 9% under budget, oh again again again with the under budget reports. Noting that 9% under generation probably means around 15% income shortfall. No further details given, not sure if this is just low wind or also because of other issues such as outages and faults, maintenance etc. Makes you wonder if the budgets were wrong in the first place doesn't it.

I wonder therefore where the cash has come from to continue the modest buyback and to invest in the further Kype Muir acquisition. Already in the bank from last year or a slight increase in net debt. Gearing remains around 39%.

As has been commented the £70M so far spent on buybacks has lost its umph, the share price falling back from the mid 140s to now the mid 130s and for negligible NAV impact.

Net cash flow was 2.4p versus 2.5p dividend.

A very simple NAV ladder is provided which could so easily have been included in the trading update rns. No adjustment for future power prices.

Fingers crossed generation recovers, a windy Winter with stronger prices is what we need.

[joe say] 25/10/2024 07:10

Agreed marktime

I've emailed the company - pretty poor imo

[marktime1231] 24/10/2024 15:31

Well hmmph!

Who puts out a routine update rns at 1pm, I mean why would you. And why not include a summary of NAV movement in the rns instead of hiding it in a factsheet on the website - especially as the factsheet is NOT on the website as claimed.

No comment at all on trading or generation, wind conditions etc! An income stock providing a trading update without mentioning income or trading performance. Aaaaaaaaagh! Is it because the 2.5p sustained dividend was not covered by income in the period, does that explain the small drop in NAV? Or does the £14.25M acquisition from available cash suggest there was (would have been) a small surplus? Sorry for speculating and worrying but if everything is plain and simple and nothing to worry about why not tell us in the rns you plonkers.

Debt seems well managed, refinanced for longer with just a tiny rise in average cost to 4.68%, ought to be a signal that gearing is affordable. So why headline that UKW are actively pursuing selected disposal opportunities to reduce gearing? At the same time as making a small acquisition.

No comment at all on the current buyback nor the persistent share price discount to NAV, other than the oblique comment that a disposal would enable capital returns.

Oh how frustrating, what an infuriating way to treat interested investors, no wonder there is a lack of market confidence in the share price 2p knocked off since the rns. Damn and blast.

[nickrl] 20/10/2024 19:36

@marktime thtas down to OFGEM stalling approval for eastern DC links for best part of 8yrs

[marktime1231] 20/10/2024 11:40

Well done Ashley, the UK nudging a record 21GW wind generation, and 6GW we can't use switched off. Unfortunately while demand is quiet, the wholesale price has slumped.

[marktime1231] 18/10/2024 15:39

No desire to get drawn in to another debate about the pros and cons of buybacks, whether the current programme is sufficient or is making any difference etc.

UKW has made it clear it has under active review the relative strategic value of debt management, expansion and buybacks when deciding how to deploy cash surplus to its splendid dividend commitment. Always evaluating potential acquisitions. In seeking the right balance it is aware it is under an obligation to support the share price when the discount to NAV widens beyond 10%.

At 135p the discount is about 15%. While the share price languishes under 145p I expect the board will want to continue to support the share price with limited buybacks. I would be equally content if it could expand UKW assets and income generation at a similar discount to NAV.

For whatever reason the share price is trading in unloved territory, much lower and I will be buying again.

[nickrl] 18/10/2024 11:18

@jombaston its achieved no support for the share price in fact as most buybacks do just squander shareholders money. UKW has a good proposition and a good track record so why do BoDs as usual seek to undermine the inv mgr.