Battery Energy Storage Systems - BESS |
Needs to put the £100m (and more) into industrial scale BESS, get those Farms operating more efficiently & effectively, get that 'free' Energy passed onto the GRID more often and increase Revenues from the same number of operating Units whilst also reducing the Tax-Payer funded burden 'switching off' too often AND the reliance on Electricity generated from Gas. MORE BESS !! |
Why do you propose Windfarms are useless?
Past Year Electricity Generation;
Generation by source
Coal 0.10 0.3%
Gas 8.66 28.5%
Solar 1.52 5.0%
Wind 9.27 30.6%
Hydroelectric 0.39 1.3%
Nuclear 4.50 14.8%
Biomass 2.18 7.2%
Wind was the biggest generator for Electricity in UK. |
The bigger worry is that windfarms are useless-then everyone will lose money as there is no value. Only value is the land which could be bought on the cheap to build more McDonald’s restaurants or flats. An offshore McDonald’s would be interesting |
Given share count is falling the divi should be increased by the percentage share count reduction as well as RPI otherwise whats the point for shareholders? |
The dividend here is already special.
It is frustrating that even down at such a low share price there are corps offloading faster than can be mopped up with a (modest) buyback. At some stage that will reverse, so yes in the meantime endure the pain of a 9% yield and a recovering share price |
Buybacks are just demand for the shares. If you are buying back £20M and a wealth manager is selling 75M the BB will do little.
Anyone who thinks BB don't work should look at SABA, they bought in and closed discounts from 30-40% to near 0.
Buybacks need to be material, £25M on a 1 Billion market cap is a fart on a not so windy day.
punters are being paid 9%+ to wait in a falling rate environment. These things take time. |
So UKW usefully tell us that a 100m share buyback delivered
"0.9p NAV accretion from first £100m buyback"
then go on to tell us what a big opportunity there is for wind expansion in the UK especially in repowering the sites where the ROCs are about to run out but continue to throw money at further buybacks. At least if your going to do that hoover up as many as you can down at this share price
Will stick with them as they have plenty of headroom to cover that divi but I would have preferred a special. |
This needs to get some Wind Farms deployed along the West/South West coast of Britain instead of inland and over in the East... the majority of the UK's winds come in from across the Atlantic and 'ease' as they reach fronts to the East and from mainland Europe. Go where the real Wind is always blowing... FFS !! |
Matt,
On the assets listed, UKW don't own 100% of all of them. I believe the table on 13 is the total output across these assets, but UKW owned stake output is the 5,484 mentioned. |
Hi, can someone explain the difference in the Annual Report 2024 between page 01:
"Highlights
• The Group’s investments generated 5,484GWh of renewable electricity."
and page 13 (bottom):
"Net GWh: 6,118.1"?
Thanks |
Buybacks are good for the brokers of course! |
 At long last some Investment Trusts are realising that buybacks are a waste of money.
There was a classic example of the money wasted on buybacks in Investors Chronicle last month. It’s SEQI (SEQUOIA ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE INCOME TRUST).
They’ve spent £125 million buying back 10% of their shares in by far the biggest buyback in the sector. The discount to NAV was 6% when they started buying back. It has now widened to 15.7%. So much for buybacks helping to narrow the discount!
A Manager is quoted saying “We could double the buybacks and it wouldn’t change things. They just show we are confident in the business.”
What’s the point then of continuing with their buybacks even now while admitting that they haven’t been effective so far despite £125 million being spent on them? So they’ve spent £125 million on buybacks only to see the discount to NAV widen considerably and to “show confidence in the business.”
That’s an expensive way to show that confidence!
And buybacks are shrinking these Trusts and reducing the capital base and making them less illiquid.
Some Trusts are getting the message at last and bemoaning that their buybacks hadn’t worked as hoped. When will more commentators and bb posters get the message too?
Phil Ackman who manages the very successful Pershing Square Trust has also got the message about what a waste of money buybacks are. It’s dawned on him that the $1 billion PSH wasted on buybacks could instead be spent on finding successful investments.
This is from the end of a Citywire article yesterday:-
“One investment decision Ackman is not so sure about is buying back the trust’s shares. In his opinion, ‘it is proven that buybacks are not a discount closing mechanism’, evidenced by the trust’s stubbornly wide discount.
‘I think of share repurchases as a capital allocation decision. It is the chief executive’s job to allocate capital to the next Uber…I will make more money for people finding the next Uber rather than buying back our shares.’”; |
Good point, the buyback is paying for the dividend increase through the consolidation of shares. I share your frustration but can understand why they are continuing the buyback with the share price down here. There is hopefully also going to be surplus cash to spend on rcf debt reduction and assets.
If the real reason for the slump is the relative attractiveness of government bonds that pressure ought to ease during the year ahead. Three more interest cuts is what we are told to expect.
If there was a small cash surplus even in a bad year then bring on a good year. A pity they didn't provide a comforting statement about current trading and prices.
Nothing on the insurance claim for Hornsea 1 outage that I could see, which makes you wonder if the premium is worth it. Nothing on current investor pain as the share price has continued to plunge. A continuation vote coming up? Nothing on whether they now are sure the NAV rot has stopped. All about taking comfort from the confident outlook about how much cash they will continue to distribute, expecting a considerable surplus to deploy despite with the reduced generation budget and lower price forecasts.
Nothing to move the dial.
I suppose we should be grateful the market hasn't lopped 5p off for no reason. |
So major drivers of NAV decline were lower LT power price forecasts alongside lower generation forecast, due to lower wind speeds.
Re-financing activity leads to small (5bp) rise in cost of debt to 4.68%, but with maturity profile pushed out over a year to 5.7yrs.
Dividend looks to be well covered for the foreseeable future with a yield of 9.3% at current share price and 2025 10.35p divi forecast.
Average buyback price for first £100m was £1.37, a 16.5% discount to end 2023 NAV. Current share price discount is 26.5%, so buyback should be more accretive to NAV than previous one. |
I guess if you've already spent £100M at a much higher average, its easier to double down that to change tact.
if they buy £100M in shares - they save £10M by not paying a dividend to them shares based on current yield... |
Lol it's a fair point. Mind you - the big latest dip was after the buy back ended (& the XD). |
So you spend a 100m and share price goes down so why not just double down and spend another 100m and see if if that changes anything. Not sure this is a sensible strategy but others will tell me its better than giving us a one off special divi but I'd rather they invest in physical assets which are being marked down. |
Sure UKW still has a decent 10 year total return including dividends received. Also has the oldest assets and one of the lowest dividend yields in the renewable energy generation sector. |
Good luck to everyone who bought the dip, I would like to pretend I was brave enough to add to my overweight position but in truth I didn't get beyond hovering over what price to commit at. Decided to wait for some actual news instead. Anyway, let's hope that is the end of the rot, and that the FY24 report tomorrow tells us what we want to know. Or they get skewered in the Q&A if not. |
I was buying at 106.2 |
I was going to call the bottom yesterday but couldn't see the wave count (longer term). Could be 3rd or 5th. If its the 5th, good. |
Was £1.06 offer at one point yesterday. |
Bottom in? |
With Trump shouting drill baby drill and Milliband responding with blow baby blow it's hardly surprising that UKW is currently unloved. With any luck it will all blow over! |
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