Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[jasperthemonkeygod] 01/8/2022 13:01

one of my better buys

[tuftymatt] 01/8/2022 11:19

Yeah really positive and now for a new 2022 high 😀

[marktime1231] 01/8/2022 11:16

Heavy trading this morning and finally the share price takes off, just twanged up 3p presumably because floating shares have all been hoovered up. Keep going.

[2wild] 29/7/2022 19:53

The peak was a couple of months ago at 160.4p. Suspect Cher price being held back by impending windfall tax. to be fair this industry has received large subsidies over many years.

[rustle2] 29/7/2022 13:48

Even HL are recommending us now. Maybe we are reaching a peak!

[marktime1231] 29/7/2022 12:18

Gross asset value will increase by acquisition.

Mkt cap will increase thanks to the surplus cash flow and further NAV progress, if only the share price will track up as well, what happened to that 13% premium. Grrr another puzzling muted day. Did punters want a dividend increase?

We need to be approaching £1.72 to get to £4B and one of the top 5 candidates, and there are up to 5 FTSE100 relegation prospects. None of this is automatic but it feels like there is a realistic chance of knocking on the door by year end.

My guess is UKW will be trading at £1.75 in the next 6 months, driven by benefits from the terrific boost to cash flow from extraordinary energy prices.

[cc2014] 29/7/2022 07:34

#524.

I don't think it will work like that. The Horsea deal will add physical assets but the amount of cash held will decrease and the debt will increase. Overall the asset value won't change...

However, the cash and debt will generate an income stream which will add value and the current cashflow exceeds the dividend going out so valuation should rise by something in due course

I took a closer look though. UKW is currently 103rd with a market cap of £3.55b. Automatic FTSE entry is around £4.3b, but that much isn't needed if someone gets automatically demoted.

There are 5 companies currently "in the queue/more likley" to get promoted than UKW. Also, there are a number of companies in the bottom 10 of the FTSE100 which look very vulnerable to a market slowdown.

Another fund raise would make a big difference.

[marktime1231] 29/7/2022 00:20

Here's a further thought. The Hornsea One deal to complete this quarter will take gross assets above £5B, and mkt cap should be heading towards £4B by year end. That pushes UKW towards the top of the group vying for admission to the FTSE100.

[riverman77] 28/7/2022 18:50

I agree having done a bit of research on the sector - UKW is the most directly exposed to energy prices, which can lead to more volatility but exactly what you want right now. Also, if we do have a winter energy crisis, then you definitely want wind power, as there's not going to be a lot of solar generation.

[c3479z] 28/7/2022 17:23

see a recommendation by a fund manager in the questor column, Daily Telegraph today as the standout buy in the renewables trusts presently.

[marktime1231] 28/7/2022 13:33

Phenomenal performance, not just super NAV growth mostly because future prices will be higher for longer but also dividend cover x 3.8 meaning there has been such super surplus cash flow UKW will be able to self-fund the direct £400M acquisition cost of the Hornsea1 stake.

Of course gearing will snap up from 20% to around 30% when UKW assume the £700M non-recourse term debt attached to Hornsea1.

Well done UKW though. All down to the exceptional wholesale market prices driven by the European gas crisis of course. Generation to plan, wouldn't it be nice if we had a meaningful surplus in the second half. Amused that the marginal management fee rate above £3B assets has been cut to 0.7%, the manager making so much money I should hope so too but let's not quibble.

A little surprised the share price has not responded more positively, yet.

[sailing john] 28/7/2022 08:53

Yes NAV up 20p in just 6 months. With more to come driven by power prices and RPI. Plus a 5% divi while we wait for Mr M to catch up. Also added. About one third of my portfolio is now in UK quoted wind and solar. A safe haven in stormy seas!!
GL SJ

[cc2014] 28/7/2022 08:51

Excellent. Take a look at the long term power price profile underlying the NAV in this mornings results presentation.

Near end based on short term power prices of £200/MWh


As far as I can work out (and I'm no expert) day ahead power price are currently running around 60% higher than that, suggesting to me the forecasts are already out of date (or perhaps just cautious for reasonable reasons) is more NAV increase to come when it's next published.

Also good to see they aren't ignoring the increase in interest rates and the discount in the NAV calculation was adjusted appropriately.

[nerja] 28/7/2022 08:27

NAV per share 153.6 pence

Topped on that increase in nav

[tuftymatt] 04/7/2022 07:23

Excellent 👍🏻

[masurenguy] 04/7/2022 01:00

Schroders chief buzzing to take finance offshore wind farms

Greencoat UK Wind, a listed investment trust specialising in renewables. Weighing in at £3.6bn, UK Wind is one of the biggest members of the FTSE 250, and not far off membership of the FTSE 100. The shares, issued at 100p in 2013, have grown to 153p, yielding a decent dividend, which is intended to rise each year by RPI — 11.7% at its last reading.

[growthpotential] 10/6/2022 01:11

This is my only dogg holding up in this environment, when is this Putin gonna crawl away

[a0002577] 30/5/2022 13:42

UKW is - as far as I know a holding company for a number of enterprises which largely generate electricity from wind in the UK.

At the moment, I believe there is no intention to tax 'renewables'

Anyway - because of PPAs there has not been the upside for these 'generators' as there has been for the oil and gas majors.

[tuftymatt] 30/5/2022 13:02

That's exactly it marktime 1231.
The US market is closed today but tomorrow I suspect a continuation of what we saw last week after 7 off weeks. To push away from Bear territory will make many take more risks meaning many of the kind of companies I hold could go out of favour a little.
Stick with it though and buy the dips as like you say a sneeze is never too far away.

[marktime1231] 30/5/2022 12:52

Or stick with UKW.

It is a possibility but still unlikely the UK government will extend windfall taxation to those companies actively investing directly in shovel-ready renewables. It would not be such a vote winner would it.

Meanwhile the surplus income and the value being added to assets is exceptional.

Even if they did consider a 25% surtax on renewable energy company profits for 1-3 years UKW would still be beating its own investment base-case by miles, while wholesale energy prices are still running at 3-4 x normal.

Actually extending the 80% tax rebate on investments could make UKW an even bigger winner on net asset value, but at the expense of clobbering net income.

In short there is nothing to fear here. Take a longer view.

I suspect the real reason why some defensive sectors of the market are down a little is that risk-on investors have crawled back out from under the duvet, ready again to gamble money on over-priced US tech stock etc.

The next time the market sneezes we will be soaring here again.

[cc2014] 30/5/2022 12:48

It will come to a head soon.



On the one hand the goverment want to tax generators profits and on the other hand are asking them to keep open facilities they were planning to close.

[igoe104] 30/5/2022 12:30

If they start taxing. Best thing then is invest into other countries that are favorable. And don't invest into UK projects..

[marktime1231] 30/5/2022 12:29

There is no doubt, the opening statement from the UK government on 26 May was ...

"Following record high oil and gas prices over the past year due to global circumstances, and to help fund more cost-of-living support for UK families, the government is introducing the Energy Profits Levy, a new 25% surcharge on the extraordinary profits the oil and gas sector is making."

The possibility of the levy being extended to other energy companies is perhaps what is weakening some share prices. It is after all a logical extension to the argument that some companies are making windfall profits while passing on much higher costs to consumers. The domestic energy bill is 25% from renewables and rising.

But right now the policy is expressly just on oil & gas.

[woodhawk] 30/5/2022 11:45

No decision has been made. Let's hope that the moron Johnson & his cabinet of cretins see sense, for once, and forget the ridiculous idea of taxing renewables.

[whilstev] 30/5/2022 11:36

Can anyone clarify for me was UKW part of the windfall tax or not ? The current share price seems to suggest yes.