Greencoat Uk Wind Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 18/11/2022 17:29

Strong finish UKW share price back to about par with NAV.

Good to see wind power continuing to contribute strongly to the generation mix, allowing net export to Europe. UKW operating performance might be ahead of budget in the months before the Electricity Generator Levy, a supertax on super-profits which sounds better than Rees-Mogg's cost-plus-revenue idea.

So we already had a £6.6B energy efficiency budget to 2025. Who knew? A future extension of £6B to come, and an Energy Efficiency Taskforce / csar to deliver 15% demand reduction from buildings (mostly the government's own?) and industry (we still have some?). Reducing average or peak demand by about 5GW by 2030. Well at least with a target and someone in charge of delivering it there is a chance of progress, but this sounds different from subsidising domestic insulation and heat pumps.

Not too sure why the govt are targetting demand reduction though, we the consumers have all already done our bit and more with home and appliance improvements, rooftop solar etc. Average intermittent renewable generation will grow around a third or 10GW by 2030, we will have an increasing surplus when the wind blows and the sun shines. Just as well, the rise of EVs means an overall demand increase of around 10%. I imagine demand will rise further with supply, otherwise the new wave of generators will be in trouble. There will certainly be new demand for air conditioning with more Summers like this one.

I would like to have heard more about the "security" bit of the govt priority of delivering energy security. More than investing in Sizewell C to replace old nuclear. So what then ... not more interconnectors surely. No mention of new hydro or battery storage that I heard. Maybe we need to hear from an Energy Minister (who is?) rather than the Treasury.

[yump] 18/11/2022 11:50

Re the levy impact - perhaps easiest to gauge by the price action over the next few months.

The funds were actually doing fine before the bumper profits that might be taxed, so perhaps that's a different way of looking at it. ie. the hype has just been taken out of the prices a bit.

Lots of income stocks, particularly renewable trusts on the rise. That post mini-budget plummet was a great opportunity to buy them at big discounts.

[marktime1231] 17/11/2022 21:28

Quite the incentive to agree long term prices capped to under £75/MWh.

[topvest] 17/11/2022 20:34

Won't it just impact the large offshore wind farms as most the assets are held in separate companies and the excess profit will be < £10m?

[jombaston] 17/11/2022 17:28

Yes it will be helpful to have a NAV impact calculated for us. Although given that the forward curve was assumed to fall below £75/MWh in 2024 (in the last NAV calculation) this only leaves 2023 when substantial tax will be assumed to be paid (unless the fwd assumptions change which would add to NAV anyway). So the tax alone seems highly unlikely to reverse the big jump in NAV between Dec 21 & June 22. Plus the dividend is very well covered so no worries there.

Of course, it will incentivize UKW to sell electricity forward at rates that are below the tax threshold as they won't fully benefit from any near term price spikes.

[sailorsam1] 17/11/2022 16:12

Hopefully there will be an Rns to explain expected impact

[topvest] 17/11/2022 15:50

Agreed. Its'very badly worded.

[rik shaw] 17/11/2022 15:36

Extract from Autumn Statement document 'Electricity Generator Levy – The government is introducing the Electricity Generator Levy, a temporary 45% tax that will be levied on extraordinary returns from low-carbon UK electricity generation. For the purposes of the tax, extraordinary returns will be defined as the aggregate revenue that generators make in a period from in-scope generation at an average output price above £75/MWh. The tax will be limited to generators whose in-scope generation output exceeds 100GWh across a period and will only then apply to extraordinary returns exceeding £10 million. The tax will apply to extraordinary returns arising from 1 January 2023 and will be legislated for in Spring Finance Bill 2023.'

I suspect we'll have to leave it to the experts and the Finance Bill to work out what impact that might have on firms especially as temporary and period don't seem to be defined.

[whilstev] 17/11/2022 14:31

I thought it had been announced in the budget that a 45% tax on profits on electricity generators is being introduced in January. Thought this included wind generation.

[rustle2] 17/11/2022 14:13

I don't think it's a policy, just an aspiration yet to be thought through?

[whilstev] 17/11/2022 13:00

So what does the new windfall tax on electricity generators mean for UKW? Market reaction seems slightly positive.

[tuftymatt] 16/11/2022 14:29

I thought it was on the 10th with the payment made next Friday?

[rustle2] 16/11/2022 12:24

Went ex-div as well (in the last week).

[tuftymatt] 16/11/2022 12:10

I hope it's that bodgeman 🤞🏻

[bodgeman] 16/11/2022 11:54

10p drop in past 5 days. Does that mean autumn statement 40% windfall tax is now priced into the SP?

[yump] 11/11/2022 15:06

Surely can add a few pence because of ex-div ?

[markldn] 11/11/2022 13:59

@marktime1231 - re: share awards. I am quite sure the pain occurs on issuance of the stock compensation. That is when existing shareholders are diluted. All else equal, whether they sell these should not affect the fair value of your shares. You might say that if management sell a material amount of their shares that could be a signal that the shares are fully valued or over valued (though it could mean a great many other things as well that have nothing to do with fair value).

[gbcol] 11/11/2022 09:56

Yes

Dividend Timetable
Ex-dividend date 10 November 2022
Record date 11 November 2022
Payment date 25 November 2022

[dagoberia] 11/11/2022 09:54

Has this now gone ex div? Thanks

[yump] 10/11/2022 15:59

Renewable funds all on the rise today. That was a great dip after mini-budget if you had steel whatsits.

[tuftymatt] 05/11/2022 08:50

Good to see another positive write up 👍🏻

I will continue to add at these kind of levels for the divi and because I think there is upside in the price to come too.