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UKW Greencoat Uk Wind Plc

140.60
-1.40 (-0.99%)
04 Oct 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Greencoat Uk Wind Plc LSE:UKW London Ordinary Share GB00B8SC6K54 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.40 -0.99% 140.60 1,988,260 16:35:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
140.50 140.80 143.10 140.60 142.70
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Finance Services 234.38M 126.19M 0.0555 25.35 3.23B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:23 O 6,570 140.60 GBX

Greencoat Uk Wind (UKW) Latest News (2)

Greencoat Uk Wind (UKW) Discussions and Chat

Greencoat Uk Wind Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
27/9/202419:13GREENCOAT UK WIND1,070

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Posted at 13/9/2024 17:40 by marktime1231
The early wind farms got very generous support, tariff and RoC agreements worth up to £200 per MWh, whether for life or a typical 15 year term. It was these deals which the govt tried to get operators to reset during the energy crisis, cold shouldered they extended the surplus energy profits levy to renewables instead.

Modern contracts under the AR CfD system are priced at best up to around £90 per MWh, so about half the rate. New developments or redevelopments have to be much less capital intensive per MW, grander scale, more efficient, higher load factor, coupled with batteries to trade the market etc. Fewer bigger taller turbines, schemes with additional capacity is how I expect things will go.

What I don't know and would be fascinated to learn is how much residual value is attached to old schemes. UKW say about a third of its 49 sites is more than 10 years old, but I suspect none is old enough to need redevelopment for some while even if financial agreements are running to term. And UKW is not in the business of development risk, it is all about acquiring stakes in operating farms. My guess is UKW would sell off its residual interest in mature sites to a developer when the time comes.
Posted at 11/9/2024 13:06 by marktime1231
The windy season has arrived early this year. Blowing strongly enough from the second half of August for ESO to rack up record levels of curtailment costs in recent weeks. Clearly their base plan did not anticipate so much wind generation. A double plus today with solar contributing too.

And yet the wind generation available has not been overwhelming, so I wonder why it has not all been used in favour of gas, biomass and imports. In addition to the argument that some renewable generation is in places which the grid network cannot handle easily, is it possible that for some assets it is cheaper to import or burn gas rather than consume homegrown renewable energy? Or is it ESO being lazy and inefficient? Can't be doing the battery storage sector much good.

UKW share price continues to tread water, waiting for not sure what, but my guess is we are at last going to get a trading report which is above budget and the resulting surplus cash flow will be very welcome.
Posted at 24/7/2024 12:05 by marktime1231
Another significantly under-budget report, yet further low wind and the Hornsea 1 cable fault which persisted until early June. How frustrating, we have missed about £25M in net proceeds ytd. Does UKW get compensated for the fault?

How about an above budget report for once, and yet wind conditions seem to be generally subdued. Is the base model wrong? I thought climate change came with the risk of more energetic weather. Despite which "resilience". Oh well.

The buyback has helped restore the share price but the NAV gain is trivial compared to the 5p or so cut due to lower price outlook.

Interesting that it reads like UKW is inundated with investment opportunities but with gearing already at 39% the board sees better NAV return from buybacks (trivial) and debt reduction (modest). I guess it depends on the opportunity. Quite a contrast to the last couple of years when super-surplus cash flow was being invested in exciting assets.

Still in consolidation mode then, treading water waiting for ...
Posted at 21/5/2024 19:42 by nickrl
@marktime be surprised if share price is that responsive to wind variability. Anyhow it has been low for last few days but forecast later in the week is for >10GW wind so lets see if that gives it a boost up then. What i find more disconcerting is UKW are in the mkt everyday generally looking for 300k shares but price barely moves. Last Friday they picked up 800k and it hardly moved so once the buyback has run its course where will the share price go then.
Posted at 14/4/2024 12:52 by marktime1231
So instead of or as well as buying back shares which cost you over 7% in dividends they can pay down debt (from surplus cash or by issuing new shares?) much of which is long term non-recourse and very cheap eg 3%, even the credit facility only costs around 6% I think. Whereas investing in additional assets ought to return even better if prices hold up. Let's not start worrying about some of the oldest subsidies on a tiny fraction of assets coming to an end in three years time.

As the board said they are continuously looking at all the options and reviewing which is the best use of cash or capital, a fine balance depending on power prices, interest rate outlook etc etc. But in the short term they have been impelled to run a small buyback to support the share price when it fell to 130p and try and close the discount gap, sort of obliged to respond according to the terms of the trust when it widens over 10% for a sustained period. All good trusts seek to manage the discount or premium by cancelling or issuing shares in this way. Every share they buy is 20p or more off its resale value and saves 10p a year in dividends ... win win.

As things stand with the share price subdued they may feel obliged to continue a small buyback. Deleveraging can wait, and would be best achieved by asset disposal rather than deploying cash. But I would rather they continue boldly to acquire and grow while accretive assets are still available.
Posted at 21/3/2024 12:48 by marktime1231
A positive research note from Kepler (paid for?). I didn't spot a target price, but there is an implied share price uprating of 10-20% due from closing the discount and the ongoing opportunity to strengthen NAV using free cash flow which continues to comfortably cover the dividend eg by acquisition, debt reduction and buybacks.

And a good observation that the progressive dividend will continue to be covered even in a weaker power price environment and even if some parcels of debt have to be refinanced at higher rates.

I am happily reassured UKW remains a standout pick in the renewables sector, but frustrated that the share price does not reflect performance or outlook. Sufficiently overinvested here not to want to add further so its a case of waiting for common sense to prevail and happily banking the excellent dividend income.
Posted at 15/11/2023 12:50 by marktime1231
The standing charges are awful as you say, the electricity one really jumped didn't it. They punish households for being energy efficient. Also set via an OFGEM cap. I think they are supposed to pay for the development of infrastructure, and so on. But the more which goes on the standing charge the less competitive the market is via tariffs.

The wholesale system is not working, all the retail challengers have gone bust. No wonder the govt are looking at market reforms via the REMA consultation which, as nickrl and others have warned, may dent UKWs earnings outlook and NAV. I vote we abolish OFGEM, an expensive shambles.

Great response from UKW share price to news that UK CPI is plunging, the chance of a return to 160p in the next few months is looking reasonable. On the other hand it means yield here has dropped under 6% and looks relatively pedestrian. The snap buyback has probably helped the share price recovery but with the discount back in single figures the case for it has diminshed.
Posted at 26/7/2023 12:55 by marktime1231
Hard to disagree with fund manager Stephen Lilley. The ability of UKW to progress dividend with inflation is assured because of the index-linked price of wind energy. The discount to NAV in the current UKW share price is unreasonable, and the way to respond to that is to buy more.

He needs to convince those long-term investment institutions currently run to cash or bonds that the level of gearing is not a problem.

UKW is solid so long as the wind blows, the ESO doesn't curtail wind farm output in favour of cheaper imports, and Greencoat don't get tempted in to risky or troubled developments.

If we flirt with 140p again I will be happy to add some more.
Posted at 18/11/2022 17:29 by marktime1231
Strong finish UKW share price back to about par with NAV.

Good to see wind power continuing to contribute strongly to the generation mix, allowing net export to Europe. UKW operating performance might be ahead of budget in the months before the Electricity Generator Levy, a supertax on super-profits which sounds better than Rees-Mogg's cost-plus-revenue idea.

So we already had a £6.6B energy efficiency budget to 2025. Who knew? A future extension of £6B to come, and an Energy Efficiency Taskforce / csar to deliver 15% demand reduction from buildings (mostly the government's own?) and industry (we still have some?). Reducing average or peak demand by about 5GW by 2030. Well at least with a target and someone in charge of delivering it there is a chance of progress, but this sounds different from subsidising domestic insulation and heat pumps.

Not too sure why the govt are targetting demand reduction though, we the consumers have all already done our bit and more with home and appliance improvements, rooftop solar etc. Average intermittent renewable generation will grow around a third or 10GW by 2030, we will have an increasing surplus when the wind blows and the sun shines. Just as well, the rise of EVs means an overall demand increase of around 10%. I imagine demand will rise further with supply, otherwise the new wave of generators will be in trouble. There will certainly be new demand for air conditioning with more Summers like this one.

I would like to have heard more about the "security" bit of the govt priority of delivering energy security. More than investing in Sizewell C to replace old nuclear. So what then ... not more interconnectors surely. No mention of new hydro or battery storage that I heard. Maybe we need to hear from an Energy Minister (who is?) rather than the Treasury.
Posted at 30/9/2022 18:13 by marktime1231
Blowing a gale can't be bad for business. Surprised UKW share price hasn't recovered to NAV which must be up around 156p as we end Q3? Already fully invested way back but I agree this is cheap at the moment for anyone looking to top up.
Greencoat Uk Wind share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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