Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 12/2/2008 13:12

bid ticking up

CR

[cockneyrebel] 12/2/2008 11:32

I know someone tha thas spokent to the management. Split looks a good possibility, the thing that is putting them off is analysts missing the performance of the stock if they look at the price I am told.

This is a company proud of what they have achieved and run by people with theier namr on the badge. Check out that performace since 2000.

A 20 bagger since the turn of the century nearly - if these have a split the headline price will look so attractive that punters will be falling over each other to buy - but that would be to be missing the point imo. The real point is these have got to nearly £11 for a reason - it's the long term class act. The fwd PE is still around 8-9 with fantastic growth - it's a rare animal.

I suspect we'll get a trading statement in March like we had an interim managemenmt statement in Oct. Company seems to be getting a lot more newsflow savvy imo, results including more detail recently too.

CR

[chrismcglone] 12/2/2008 11:11

Only just started following this so trying to track back on stuff mentioned.

Is the split a strong possibility or just a strong rumour? Has there been any mention from management or is it merely speculation given the stock isn't too liquid.

Any opinions welcome.

[jimmy tarbuck] 12/2/2008 10:58

Not a chance of a pullback if the rumoured share split goes ahead.

I've Bed and ISA'd to my £7k limit and will do the same on my wife's behalf when the certificate returns. Will have to transfer stock into her name first. All above board and keeps Darling's hands off my hard-earned.

Decided to crystalise gains on my non-ISA holding (by Bed and ISAing) because if the share split does go ahead then this will race ahead. Virtually all of my holding is now ISA'd and I'd recommend others to do the same.

[chrismcglone] 12/2/2008 09:29

What are the chances of a wee pullback to get in?

(probably already answered that one in my own mind)

[chrismcglone] 12/2/2008 09:28

OK CR, you've convinced me.

Or rather the figures have. They speak volumes for themselves.

[cockneyrebel] 11/2/2008 23:45

Seen the normalised EPS there since 2000? !!! :-) Nearly up 30 fold and grown every year.

Incredible

CR

[cockneyrebel] 10/2/2008 15:55

In my opinion yields are often high for a reason (tho not always). Look at Lloyds - no safer place for your cash you might have thought in times gone by but they were paying 9%+ a few weeks ago. Low PE's attract me more than high yields simply because PE's tend to re-rate faster than yields. If a co grows at 30% p.a. it's under no obligation to raise the divi 30% where as the growth reduces the PE and a low PE gets eroded at the same pace as the growth.

Anyway, I bought GDWN here recently at £10.30p and I'm well happy that I've had a steal there. Newxt bit of news, statement etc and the valuation will out more imo.

CR

[chrismcglone] 10/2/2008 13:31

CR, thanks for the reply - and reminding me what a poorly timed trade i made with S&U. Don't disagree with your other comments re earnings etc. Think i was duped by the yield despite the static earnings. Perversly though i think things may pick up for them in the current credit environment due to the type of customer they have.

Anyway, it is filed under failure and i have taken my medicine.

Goodwin certainly for the moment looks like it would plug the gap. Not a great yield but capital growth should more than make up for this. I subscribe to Company REFS and, therefore, tend to follow similar principles upon which would make this a great potential pick.

The only problem is i fear i may have missed the boat somewhat.

If that growth can continue however, probably not.

Some good informative info on this board for prospective buyers like myself.

[cockneyrebel] 10/2/2008 12:26

S&U are a finance company - little wonder it got a tonking - everything in that sector has been walloped. It's still trading on a PE of 7.5. I was selling S&U on that PE about 6-7 years ago. It must have been trading on a PE of 12 in August - what on earth were you doing buying it on that rating Chrismcglone? The earnings in S&U hasn't grown in 5 years! The divi has bearly risen in 5 years. I'm sorry but if you buy an overvalued stock with little or no growth, and little yield growth then what do you expect?


The earnings growth at GDWN is:

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%). If you look at H1 the current earnings growth is now up to something like 40%+ - ABSOLUTELY STUNNING - and unseen in any stock on the LSE or AIM.

Compound divi growth of around 10% p.a. too.

Read the start of the Interims once again and it might make you realise that the fwd PE of 8 here is just incredibly low, taking into account the outlook and the past record imo:

I am pleased to report that the pre-tax profits for the Group for the six month period ending 31st October 2007 were £4.37 million (2006: £2.83 Million), an increase of 54% on a revenue of £34.96 million which is up 15 % on the same period last financial year.

The order books of all Group companies remain buoyant and it would be surprising if the current level of activity were to drop in the second half of the year. The Group's continued investment in terms of time and money in order to develop manufacturing and sales operations in the rapidly expanding Pacific Basin countries is progressively resulting in a larger proportion of Group profits emanating from this region and the Board considers this effort will position the Group well in future years.

Goodwin Steel Castings continues to win multi million dollar orders for valves and components for use in high efficiency electrical power generating plant, be it in China, India or the USA.

Goodwin International, having recently expanded its range of check valves to include the nozzle check valve to complement its dual plate check valve, and with its new sister company in Germany, Noreva GmbH, is expected yet again this year to win record levels of orders from the oil, gas and LNG industries world wide which have an impressive five year investment programme to keep pace with the increasing world demand.

The Refractory Engineering Division with manufacturing units in the UK, Thailand, China and India continues to expand and we are starting now to see economies of scale benefits, especially with our new UK vermiculite facility which is scheduled to be fully commissioned in January 2008.

Internet Central has engineered a hardware/software platform that provides a stable leading edge technology voice over internet protocal (VOIP) telephone exchange system that is now being sold through a growing number of distribution channels, which should enable this company to continue its growth in turnover and profitability.

The Board continues to investigate opportunities of achieving additional growth in terms of turnover and profitability but it remains Board policy that the Group should finance any such growth from its own profit streams and that expansion would be in areas where our experience and core skills can be discerningly utilised.

The Group continues to invest and carry out research into products that will result in reduced environmental pollution. This is especially the case for products that are needed to improve the efficiency of coal and gas fired power stations which represent over 65 % of world power generating capacity.".

Directors are buying despite the shareprice hitting all time records and them already having large holdings. Lastly, GDWN don't do hype - go back and read the past results and you'll see that statements are usually very cursory, especially at the interims. This trading statement is as bullish as I've ever seen from them.

CR

[barry pringle] 09/2/2008 23:08

Mrs Pringle and I are really enjoying this thread. Keep up the good work.

Regards,

Barry.

[chrismcglone] 09/2/2008 22:59

Seriously like the look of these but still have a few reservations.

Recently bailed out of S&U after a very poor year for the share price despite steady predictable earnings and a 7% yield (now 8%). It bombed despite almost no trading of stock. Very tightly held with large holdings amongst family members.

Whilst i like to see large director holdings i fear my experience with S&U also illustrates some of the negative aspects. Not a huge free float. Almost no chance of being taken over. The wider market seems to ignore the obvious value in this type of company and, invariably, the share price eventually suffers.

Comparison with S&U not a great one perhaps and this certainly seems to have a wider following so i will keep an open mind.

[nurdin] 09/2/2008 16:06

GDWN tipped as a buy in Shares this week though :o)

[cockneyrebel] 08/2/2008 13:46

SCSW tomorrow, will be interesting to see if they cover GDWN this weekend and what they say.

Hope they've noticed the 5 years of accelerating earnings growth.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/2/2008 11:25

a 1% rise, it's nothing but a 13p rise psychologically seems a lot - wait till these have the share split - this will move up faster then imo.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/2/2008 10:30

I've always invested in Zulus.

The trouble is you need to identify them early - that's when they really perform GDWN is still early, and cheap on a fwd PE of 8 or so imo. Most zulu stocks tend to be trading on much higher ratings so they don't necessarily perform as well as GDWN as so many have spotted them and driven the price up.

The history of earning growth does tend to support those types of stocks tho, imo.

CR

[iandippie] 05/2/2008 08:30

CR-seeing as GDWN has performed so damned well over a poor period on the markets, and considering it's a zulu stock, do you think that perhaps the best approach to investment is to invest purely in stocks that strongly meet the zulu criteria? i am now considering purely investing in zulu stocks and wondered what you think?!

[cockneyrebel] 04/2/2008 14:07

Anyone interested in another very cheap stock with a good record of earnings growth and ISAable should look at AXD imo.

Directors buying, already said they are on course to meet. 7.5% yield and Chart looks like it bottomed and bounced on hogh volume a week or so ago.

PE 6.6.

Won't clog this thread with off topic stuff but if anyone wants to discuss it then use the AXD thread.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 04/2/2008 10:08

Oh yes, it's breaking put :-)

Was reading an article at the weekend - how it's worth paying a big premium for earnings reliability. Well you don't get much more reliable than GDWN - and it's not just earnings growth but accelerating earnings growth.

CR

[chester] 04/2/2008 10:04

Building up steam again, Breakout.

[cockneyrebel] 04/2/2008 07:44

China's oil industry expanding by buying a chunk of Soco - reckon GDWN kno just how big the China oil mkt is going ti get, hence their confidence.

CR