Goodwin Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 28/1/2008 19:29

I've just been looking at the Ref's page of GDWN - sales and earnings have grown for 7 years continuous - even through the 911 fall and the 2000-2003 recession/slowdown.

In 7 years the divi has grown over 1000%, that is 39.75% compound growth in the yield over 7 years!

Operating margins have grown every year for the 7 years covered by Refs.

Amazing read.

CR

[mw8156] 28/1/2008 19:16

Good company but last year's figures are not quite as good as they look when you allow for foreign exchange gains...

[nurdin] 28/1/2008 15:15

I look at it like this.

Last year they did 26.4p in H1 and 38.7p in H2...ie 46.5% growth in H2 over H1.

Applying the same ratios this year,they should do,as a bare minimum 59p in H2 given that they did 40.4p in H1.Full year eps should come to near 100p and that is without the benefit of the acquistion.Factor that in and it wouldnt surprise me if they did near 110p for the full year.

[nurdin] 28/1/2008 11:14

Ta Cambium...I should have bought earlier in the year really when CR first highlighted them to me....but I think they are still very cheap.

[cambium] 28/1/2008 11:12

Another great poster...... welcome Nurdin

[nurdin] 28/1/2008 11:01

I have nibbled...looks great :o)

[cockneyrebel] 28/1/2008 10:44

Always amusing how punters ignore a tick down but chase a move up :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 26/1/2008 13:31

Well difficult to say but Slater reckoned a PEG of 0.75 was low and was a buy.

If we assumed the fwd PE is 8, based on 130p eps this coming year, and conservatively assume growth is 30% for the coming year then the PEG (and this is a genuine proper PEG where a co has 5 years earnings growth not based on a stock that has had earnings growth for just one or two years) then the PEG is 0.26, conservative.

On that basis these are a screaming buy on Slater's Zulu Principle. Over a year the PE is eroded from a fwd PE of 8 now to something less. My guess is these would be on a fwd PE of around 6 or less in 12 months if the share price doesn't change. More realistically over 12 months these will be trading on a fwd PE of more than 12 so the share price should double in 12 months imo - bar gloabal meltdown. The nearest stock I can find as far as earnings growth goes is Mears, theier earnings growth rate hasn't always accelereated and the earnings are not growing as strongly. MER is trading on a fwd PE of 14.5 - nearly double that of GDWN, and MER is an Aim stock while GDWN is fully listed.

I never have a price target, all I know is that GDWN is very undervalued on the above basis - which is obviously what SCSW has noticed.

CR

[res1606] 26/1/2008 12:50

CR, what multiple of earnings do you think this should be worth?

[cockneyrebel] 26/1/2008 11:59

The other real plus is the Noreva acquisition back in March. In H1 this was only starting to kick in with the synergies which Goodwin described as 'excellent' as both co's were addressing different problems with different solutions but in the same oil/gas market. The Noreva products are a higher end valve, more expensive and with greater margins.

There's also the benifits of shared technology.

For these reasons I think GDWN will easily get near 100p eps this year and growth will continue at something over 30% next year, perhaps remaining near the current 50%+ growth they are achieving.

But the real thing to remember hear is the accelerating earnings growth imo. Anyone that follows Jim Slater will know that to qualify for genunine 'PEG' (somethinfg Slater invented) then a company needs to have 5 years earnings growth. Goodwin is unique in any stock that I can find in that they have 5 years accelerating earnings growth.

2003 = 25.5p, 2004 = 27p (+6%), 2005 = 35p (+30%), 2006 = 47p (+35%), 2007 = 65p (+38%) 2008 H1 (51%).

That's why there are no sellers of Goodwin. That's why if you want to buy you can't get the shares in any volume - the few shares that are about and not in the family hands are jealously held by exising holders.

CR

[cambium] 25/1/2008 21:16

iT has only just begun CR, MKt cap of 75 m, I think this has a lot of legs yet, £2.50 here we come ;o)

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2008 18:35

I added 500 shares today @ 1040 - they wanted a premium for more - should have paid it I think :-(

Was being marked up on no trades early on so someone's trying to get a big order filled imo.

Funnily enough I was discussing GDWN with a few friends on another chat room today and I reckoned a 200p split would be the level and 250p would be the price pretty quick today too Penpont - great minds think alike - or fools seldom differ :-)

These look set to do the best part of 100p eps this year. Growth running at 50% currently. Seeing as the company has said that they would be surprised if the level of business slipped in H2 that 95-100p looks pretty nailed on imo.

If growth slipped from 50% this year to 30% next year then 130-135p eps looks easily possible, a fwd PE of 8. That's from a company with fantastic record of accelerating earnings growth over 5 years. I hope SCSW pick up on that fact, I have never found a stock with such a fabulous earnings growth record.

CR

[penpont] 25/1/2008 18:17

Strangely enough I added 1581 shares on Mon online no prob. at 1000p. Was regretting it the next day when they got hit with everything else in the mayhem...

Hoping they go for a 5 for 1 split - should see a pretty quick re-rating from 200ish to 250 if they do, given any sort of stable market conditions.

It seems odd they haven't made any mention of a possible split, but knowing Goodwin it'll be announced done and dusted on a Friday afternoon sometime soon.

[jimmy tarbuck] 25/1/2008 17:38

Tried to add a couple of hundred more shares near the cob today. My online trading ISA account said NO ! Decided not to route the trade through to the market (and therefore pay a premium).

Agree with you CR, it's difficult to pick up stock in any quantity at the moment. Will probably try again early next week when the MMs are willing to play ball.

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2008 17:11

You cannot buy for love nor money - there is no stock around at all.

Buys of just 300 are moving the MM's up.

CR

[cambium] 25/1/2008 16:23

we did tell you :o)

[bigbigdave] 25/1/2008 16:23

Close to breaking out now.
Knew I should have added last week.

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2008 08:42

just the start of the run north - SCSW punters will be nibbling all the way to the next issue in a fortnight imo.

ony up the equiv of 2p on a £1 share today but psychologically it seems like more - that will change with a share split and these will really move then imo.

CR

[chester] 24/1/2008 13:16

A great step pattern here, and came down to trendline support 2 days ago.