Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[kimboy2] 16/7/2024 15:36

I think the problem with the supply of material, apart from decreasing gold production, is that mines are becoming more efficient in their extractiUnfortunately much of this diversification depends on progress on the TSF, which is not in their handson.

They need to diversify, and are clearly aware of this.

Unfortunately the progress of the TSF is not in their hands, but DRD, who no doubt have different priorities.

Incidentally I thought it an innovative distraction to take your dog to a webcast. He didn't shoot it, or at least I didn't hear a shot, so that's a positive.

[wigwammer] 16/7/2024 12:42

With gold now at $2400+ - and presumably improving the economics of previously mothballed projects - it isn't clear to me that even Goldplat can know the SA gold industry will continue to decline. Additionally, each $100 increment in pog adds a minimum of $5m to the value of the TSF inventory. That's circa 2p a share - and we've seen a $500 rise ytd without any corresponding rise in the share price..../ Additionally, it is only recently that an attractive options package has been attached to management performance.... So a lot of negativity here - I get it because it is taking a long time - but things often do and i suspect the needle is gradually moving in shareholders favour... ATB

[lowtrawler] 16/7/2024 12:03

swiss paul, IMV, the SA market is in decline and GDP have been desperately trying to find a new revenue stream to safeguard jobs and the SA presence. As you say, in doing this they have taken their eye of the ball on making their existing operations more efficient and flexible. I would prefer them to become the most efficient recovery business in the world and setup operations wherever there is a profitable market.

Their operational activities appear to have become less efficient in recent years.

[michaelfenton] 15/7/2024 14:41

LT I am not expecting a Divi anytime soon.

[lowtrawler] 15/7/2024 12:28

MF, I don't think dividends are imminent. The capex for Ghana, likely ongoing costs to process the TSF, possible move into South America, building up inventory, problems in South Africa..... I think there are enough excuses for attributable earnings to be retained in the business for another 18 months. I believe this is why the share price has fallen back in recent weeks. If they do introduce a dividend, it will be of the token variety.


I may be mistaken, but I do think 2026 will permit a decent dividend / buybacks. Until then, we need to see progress on the TSF for positive price momentum.

[michaelfenton] 15/7/2024 11:42

Lowtrawler Dividends - I hope you are right but the Board seem to prefer to spend excess cash on Bananas as they love the skins too much.

[lowtrawler] 15/7/2024 11:11

alm, I understand your feelings. The last 10 years must have been very disappointing as a buy and hold investor. What matters today is the future share price performance and there are reasons to believe now is a good time to be invested:

1. The TSF has been showing progress and could start to be reflected in the SP
2. DRD should be interested in buying GDP if they can get it at a reasonable price.
3. We are trading near the bottom of what would be a fair price just for the Core business and once the current capex disappears, we may get more buybacks or a dividend.

With GDP, nothing is ever certain but I don't believe now is the time to give up hope.

[ih_692232] 14/7/2024 14:37

Low -I really don’t want to be a continuing investor in goldplat - I want to get my money back and show a profit
It’s been a very long wait-over ten years - and I fear I will have to wait a long time yet to come
But we live in eternal (some would say foolish) hope
Alm

[lowtrawler] 14/7/2024 09:12

alm2, if you really think that, you probably don't want to be investing here. IMV, the TSF is highly valuable and will be monetised. What we don't know is when. We would all like GDP to keep us better informed on progress and probable value. We would also like GDP to show a greater commitment to the timelines they set out. Last quarters investment call was the first time I felt they were making progress on the TSF and were committing to early delivery. We now need to see it happening.

[ih_692232] 13/7/2024 22:34

Low
And just look at the price of gold ….i am beginning to wonder whether the TSF is worth anything at all -maybe the company knows it’s a pipe dream - forgive the pun
Alm

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2024 10:32

Kimboy,, I believe they said the pipeline approval would take approximately 12 months. It was unclear what the water license approval related to but they only said they expected feedback by Q2. However, the pipeline approval is now more than 18 months late and we don't know when the water approvals can be expected. Unfortunately, it is typical of the muddled communication from GDP. It is probably why the TSF is not reflected in our share price

[michaelfenton] 13/7/2024 10:29

Kimboy what are your thoughts about this very long delay?

[kimboy2] 13/7/2024 09:03

October 2021 the application for the pipeline and water license went in. GDP said the approval process would be completed by the end of 2021.

We are now two and a half years further on and it seems to be getting further away.

I think the delays will affect Martin's judgement. There is the opportunity cost as well as risk as time goes on.

It is clear that Ergo has plenty of material for the time being.

[lowtrawler] 13/7/2024 08:53

Kimboy, GDP are only one spur on the DRD pipeline and so probably not the most important consideration for DRD. Assuming the contract is a win-win, no reason for it to be strung out unless DRD wish to buy GDP. Even then, I don't think DRD would have much to gain from delaying. They are going to have to pay whatever Martin demands which is unlikely to move by delaying the pipeline.

[kimboy2] 13/7/2024 07:00

The problem is that the applications for the pipeline are not in GDP's hands, but being done by DRD. We are not their priority. Indeed it may be in their interests to string them out.

[michaelfenton] 12/7/2024 09:48

Lowtrawler las post makes sense.

[dinky00] 12/7/2024 08:47

Agree with you, and sold half of my holding a few weeks back and put the proceeds into a US stock that is up 60-70% in that time. It's the opportunity cost of holding GDP is what kills shareholders, what have we missed out on in the last 10yrs by continuing to hold.Dow Jones up 170%, Nasdaq up 485%, S+P up 245% in the last 10yrs. GDP.L is flat in that period.This is a company who claim they have not a single penny for buybacks/dividends but can spring a £900k investment in Ghana out of the blue, or the £4.5m they magically got their hands on to buy a 17% stake of the S.African business that valued that business alone at £20.2m at a time when GDP.L's entire mkt cap was £12m.The truth is it would cost GDP.L no more than £250k/yr in buybacks to keep the share price in a 10-15p range. Mkt makers would know they can't drive the price down on small volumes and institutions would be more interested seeing the buyback policy.

[lowtrawler] 12/7/2024 08:37

MF, only you can answer that question.

IMV, the core business is worth more than the current share price which creates limited downside. The only threat would come if Ghana were to decline but that currently appears unlikely.

If GDP properly communicate the TSF, most of the benefits should appear in the share price at the point monetization begins. Even if they move at a glacial pace, that is likely to be within the next 3 years. However, if they fail to communicate and the benefits are only visible over the course of monetization, the full impact might not be felt until monetization is complete and that may be 10 years away. I can't believe Martin would allow that to happen and so I currently expect benefits of the TSF to be substantially in the share price within 3 years.

[michaelfenton] 12/7/2024 07:43

The question is - is it worth the necessary patience? After all it may never happen?

[lowtrawler] 12/7/2024 07:25

MF, the wait is partially out of their control. They need the licenses and in SA, you can never be certain how long that will take. The fact they discovered additional license needs earlier this year does not fill me with confidence but at least we know licensing is underway. They should be able to sign an agreement with DRD subject to licensing. They should also be able to publish a full plan with financials. However, they are clearly not in any rush to do this. IMV, the signed agreement with DRD will come first and probably in the next few months. The licensing will be next, probably early next year. It is possible they never publish a full financial plan. We will be left guessing until the money starts to flow in and that could be 2026. If they go down that route, we might see no share price impact from the TSF until 2026. Patience is very much needed.

[michaelfenton] 12/7/2024 05:37

Lowtrawler - you are right and MO seems a waste of space although he did allow me to make some profit - but he does not appear to be interested in shareholders just like the whole board. The wait here is interminable?

[lowtrawler] 11/7/2024 16:11

Alm2 / MF, mirrors what I have been saying for a while now. As an organisation they simply don't prioritise shareholders. Whether that is communication or use of capital, shareholders are not a priority. Only Martin could make that change and there is no sign of it happening.

[michaelfenton] 11/7/2024 14:46

One of my bones to pick with GDP is lack of any updates. Even emails go unanswered?