Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[michaelfenton] 13/5/2024 09:45

Lowtrawler - what is say about the figures is true, however the future looks considerably brighter? True GDP is prone to managerial mistakes and banana skins but fortunately Ghana is flying and SA has the tailings to improve things. lets hope they ramp up their actions. I see no reason to sell unless you are taking profits or just a trader.

[ertugrul] 13/5/2024 09:31

If you compare with other aim gold miners this is cashcow.

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 08:44

ertugrul, there are some bright spots in the announcement but overall, the performance in the quarter is disappointing. I think the current fallback is understandable and we will need to see where it stabilises. I suspect we will move back to 7.5 - 8.0 and remain there pending future announcements.

[ertugrul] 13/5/2024 08:20

Results are good. share price Won't stay these levels too long

[shill10] 13/5/2024 08:17

Ghana going gangbusters again , SA going to need some cost cutting. So now we know the amount of Gold in the TSF , from memory 1.43 g/t is higher than Kimboy was assuming so that's good news, an extra 44k oz by my sums, so total 127k oz, nice.

[kimboy2] 13/5/2024 08:12

The numbers may be something like this;

Q1/24 Q2/24 Q3/24Op Pr SA 0.79 0.3 0.119Op Pr Gh 1.106 1.82 1.499Op Pr Kil SA Tax 28% -0.22 0 0SA Non con 9.5% -0.054 -0.03 -0.01Ghana Tax 15% -0.166 -0.273 -0.225 Finance -0.2 -0.2 -0.43 Central costs -0.17 -0.17 -0.17 PAT 1.086 1.447 0.783 Cash £m 1.35 1.7 2.4




One or two things.
1. Just as well they diversified into Ghana.

2. The case for further diversification in SA is obvious. It is being held up by delays on the TSF.

3. Gaining material has become more competitive and requires cash up front. This will require cash, borrowed or retained profits if interest is to be reduced.

4. We now know that there are 120kozs in the TSF.

[dinky00] 13/5/2024 08:06

Having millions in cash and incurring £430k in interest in 1 quarter seems incredibly naive to me

[dinky00] 13/5/2024 07:50

Agreed, starting to look like (bar the TSF), they have no reason to be in South Africa

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 07:46

The big surprise is how bad the SA business is doing even with limited downtime from power outages. The commentary also implies SA will remain poor unless they make contract wins. Fortunately, Ghana is doing great. The amount of interest being paid is also surprising, at least to me.

[dinky00] 13/5/2024 07:42

Cash balance up £700k in 1 quarter....impressive

[arlington chetwynd talbott] 13/5/2024 07:11

Bit of a mixed bag.

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 16:16

Thanks Lowtrawler sound thinking? I hope it happens soon and no news may mean something is brewing? I would be happy with anything over 20p to be honest.

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 14:21

MF, we are only going to be sold at a price Martin finds acceptable. Hence, the current pricing is less important to a bid price than may otherwise be the case.

If DRD make a bid, they will do so with an accurate knowledge of the TSF value. IMV, excluding the TSF, GDP would have a bid price around 15p. If the NPV of the attributable TSF is 10p, there would be a bid ceiling of 25p. However, the TSF could easily be worth 20p by itself and so the ceiling might be 35p. It is unlikely DRD would bid up to the ceiling but I'm sure there would be a price both Martin and DRD could find acceptable.

[ertugrul] 10/5/2024 13:17

We will surely see 20p

There is also looks like a big buyer behind the scenes

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 12:44

GDP need to get the share price up or we will get sold for less than true value. No more banana slip ups please. Cnnot see MO accepting less than 20p?

[shill10] 10/5/2024 12:24

DRD Gold trades on a p/e of 10, so a bid would have to be accretive on that basis, by my calculations that is very doable.

[shill10] 10/5/2024 11:40

yes, all that talk about buying out the minority shareholding with borrowed cash, at a valuation way higher than the whole group - the ONLY reason they would have done this was if they knew the TSF was worth multiples of current market cap, they aren't that stupid as otherwise they would have just bought back Goldplat shares. Plus they did this transaction when Gold was c $1800 from memory...

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 11:39

shill10 - at that time, GDP had run some share buybacks which indicated they were starting to look at returning value to shareholders. Since then, they have had the trading suspension / accounts debacle; SA power outages; Ghana licensing problem; working capital increases; extra capex needs.....

It appears to me GDP will be able to generate around 2p of after tax annual attributable profit on a consistent basis. If they indicate at least 1p of this will be returned to shareholders, that alone would return us to 12.5p. The TSF is clearly going to be worth at least 10p per share and once a route to monetising the TSF is published, a large chunk should be reflected in the share price

A bid from DRD would obviously accelerate the share price appreciation but GDP have it within their own power to move the share price into the teens.

[dinky00] 10/5/2024 11:26

And they're about to finish repaying a big loan

[shill10] 10/5/2024 11:19

Goldplat shares were 12.5p in Nov 2022, when Gold was $1750. Gold is now $2360, and the shares are 8.5p....

[lowtrawler] 10/5/2024 10:00

It's good to dream and there are a lot of reasons why DRD would make an offer for GDP. All we can do is watch.

[shill10] 10/5/2024 09:28

DRD will do a deal for the TSF on the same terms they do for many others, that's a given, they have their margins, its a simple calculation, the results of which we are about to find out.Martin Ooi is not about to pull out of DRD deal either, it is mutually beneficial. Weather the financial gains with this deal to Goldplat are so large c w a market cap of £14 mill remains to be seen, there is a level where it makes sense for them to bid, also does that overlap with Martin Ooi's target ? I suspect yes, but let's see.

[ih_692232] 10/5/2024 08:15

DRD are a much bigger company than goldplat-acquiring yet another TSFwould be no problem for them -but would goldplat sell it in isolation? Would DRD want the reset of goldplat business? How does that fit with DRD-why bother ? I see nothing as certain as to DRD having intention to buy goldplat -it would be the answer to Martin and many shareholders but we all may have to rely on TSF dividends to get our return -may be a while before the picture clarifies
DRD hold all the keys to unlocking this business asset or cashing in on the whole business -you can expect them to drive a hard bargain -any other buyers???
And if DRD back out how will the TSF ever be unlocked ???
Lots of ifs
Alm

[michaelfenton] 10/5/2024 05:00

Kimboy2 - lets hope your possible is on the cards? I am getting frustrated by the lack of action. New numbers should be good given the POG?