Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[dinky00] 28/5/2024 11:25

Explains why none of the board has purchased shares

[wigwammer] 28/5/2024 10:35

8 million share options between the three of them. Good news IMO, and will hopefully keep them motivated and focused.

[kimboy2] 24/5/2024 11:37

I don't know how much capex will be. I would imagine that only the spur from the main pipeline will be attributable to GDP.

[wigwammer] 24/5/2024 11:20

Thanks kimboy, that's interesting. You mention "some capex" - but I would imagine building the required pipeline is going to involve quite a lot of capex. Have we got any steer on capex costs yet?

[kimboy2] 20/5/2024 16:52

It will come to fruition. Just hope it is in all our lifetime.

[michaelfenton] 20/5/2024 16:21

Thanks Kimboy lets hope it all comes to fruition. It has been a long wait with no return?

[kimboy2] 20/5/2024 15:56

DRD's secret is their astonishingly low costs. Sea found a report on them a while back and I did some figures based on these.

They are;

If we say that there is 130kozs of gold in the heap at the moment.

DRD get a recovery rate of 30-50%.

30% of 130 is 39kozs of gold recovered.

The cost of processing is $5.3/t of ore.

If we say 2.5mt of ore then that will cost $13.25m

If the gold price is $2,150 then that is a revenue of $83.5m and a profit of $70.25m.

If the gold price is $2,000 then that is a revenue of $78m and a profit of $64.75m


There will be some capex and a profit share with DRD, but I think recovery will be better than 30%. I also think gold has further to go as interest rates come down.

[lowtrawler] 20/5/2024 15:10

Thanks kimboy, I certainly hope my cost estimates are overly generous and come in a lot lower..

[shill10] 20/5/2024 15:05

is that just their costs, or costs+margin ?

[shill10] 20/5/2024 14:45

Kimboy, great work. Need to add in transportation/pipework costs on top but there is plenty to go round.

[kimboy2] 20/5/2024 14:32

DRD's costs have averaged $5.30/t.

There is 2.5mt in the TSF.

If the average cost holds then the total processing cost would be $13.25m.

[lowtrawler] 20/5/2024 11:54

We have to remember there are a lot of moving parts with the TSF and how it should be reflected in our share price.

The Jorc has yet to be updated for the additional material.
The percentage recovery is subject to uncertainty.
We don't have certainty on any of the cost components.
The contract with DRD may yet hit unexpected obstacles.
We don't know exact timing.

However, I believe my calculations represent a fairly conservative view of value and would suggest a value for the TSF of between 10p and 15p on a NPV basis.

The Core GDP business is likely to generate around 2p per share attributable profit and so our current Share price represents only 4x attributable profit with the TSF thrown in for free.

IMV, the market will slowly wake up to the under-valuation and when GDP publish their own TSF plans, there will be a step change to the price.

[lowtrawler] 20/5/2024 10:39

shill10, more accurate to say the sales value of the TSF is now £121m. What we are missing are:

1. The costs of processing the material, including the contract with DRD and any up front investment / wind-down costs.
2. Exact timing of expected processing.
3. Tax.

I know there has been some informed guesswork regarding the costs but we have seen nothing official.

Personally, I'm using an expectation that 2/3 of the sales value will be taken in costs and 28% SA tax will apply to the net profit. That would give attributable profit of just under £30m. However, I also expect processing to take place over the next 5 years and so the current value on an NPV basis is less than £25m.

[shill10] 20/5/2024 09:23

Goldplat's TSF Gold at 50% recovery now worth £121 mill. Market cap £12 mill,

[wigwammer] 15/5/2024 17:55

Apart from the share price .. :)

[russman] 14/5/2024 06:13

No significant progress in this quarter.

[shareholder7] 13/5/2024 14:43

Glad Ghana is now becoming the main profit Center as the tax there is much lower than SA. You can now see why GDP is looking at coal in SA. Overall, unless you need money now, we just have to wait for the TSF.

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 13:46

dinky00, indeed. Thanks to Kimboy, we can estimate a core business with only Ghana and no SA would be generating over 3m of after tax profit. It means we are trading on a PER of only 4.5 for Ghana with SA and the TSF as free add-ons. If you deduct cash from our market cap, the ratio is only around 4.

It's hardly demanding but suggests the market don't believe current activity in Ghana is sustainable. This lends weight to kimboy's past arguments on GDP needing to diversify and use cash to build stock for processing. It also suggests they need to move quickly on the TSF before Ghana starts to shrink. Strategically, a larger scale move into South America may create the next Ghana.

[kimboy2] 13/5/2024 13:45

Goldplat continues to manage operations despite the difficult background in South Africa and has the natural hedge of two plants in two different areas with different drivers to maintain profitability. The company has managed its options very well in our opinion and with the TSF reprocessing plan has a major new project for which we make no allowance in our fair value – which we keep at 14.5p/sh on the basis of an undemanding 3.5x EV/EBITDA multiplier for FY25E. We maintain our outlook for FY2024E with a gross operating profit of £7.8m, PBT of £3.7m, an eps of 1.5p and cash of £2.6m.

[dinky00] 13/5/2024 13:14

Current profit run rate in Ghana alone makes GDP undervalued.

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 12:33

Alm, I share your scepticism but tend to believe progress is being made on the TSF. As always, GDP will move at their own pace. Not long ago, SA would have been considered their core business and so it is worrying how quickly the rot has set in. It makes the SA minority buyout look poorly timed and priced.

So long as Ghana continues to perform, GDP still looks good value on their core business with the TSF thrown in for free. If Ghana were to wobble, the TSF would become critical.

[ih_692232] 13/5/2024 11:51

Low
But still no solid news on the TSF as to what is going to happen when where and how - and what the financials are involved in all of this
It’s like watching paint dry
It could easily take another couple of years! Or never happen for that matter.
In reality if they can’t make the TSF pay or get bought out (because of the TSF)then this business is going nowhere and same old same old -With no return to shareholders ever possible because it will get gobbled up with one thing or another
Alm

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 10:02

MF, I also see no reason to sell. The pullback is unlikely to exceed 1p and the sunlit uplands of the TSF are almost within touching distance.

[lowtrawler] 13/5/2024 09:57

etrugrul, did the quarter results exceed expectations?

IMV, the SA results were below and the interest charge was higher than most reasonable expectations. The Ghana results either matched or just bettered expectations. This is all that will drive the short-term share price.

Over time, relative performance to other shares will come into the equation but will probably happen so slowly as to go unnoticed. There are 2 keys to unlocking better value with GDP: Delivering on the TSF; returning excess cash to shareholders. Once the market sees visible progress in these 2 areas, the share price will move much higher.