Goldplat Share Discussion Threads

[ih_692232] 11/7/2024 14:27

Low /kimboy
The apparent inactivity towards TSF is bewildering -if only we had a board that would communicate ……
A detailed update of progress on TSF each quarter would be a good start
Alm

[ertugrul] 11/7/2024 13:45

Gold making another big jump

[lowtrawler] 11/7/2024 12:44

alm2, I'm not sure we will head below 6 but as I said a couple of weeks ago, certainly heading towards low 6's. As kimboy says, this will all change with the TSF (or an offer if one arises). If our understanding of the TSF proves anything like accurate, this is simply a buying opportunity.

If we did not have Martin, there would always be the risk GDP fritter away the TSF proceeds. With Martin, we can be certain shareholders will benefit from the TSF.

The challenge now is to have the patience waiting while the TSF is monetized.

[kimboy2] 11/7/2024 11:18

IMV there are only 2 things that will break the impasse and that is getting on with the TSF, or an offer. Perhaps they aren't mutually exclusive.

I would like them to sell SA to DRD and keep the Ghana operation, which IMV is worth more than the makt cap by itself.

[ih_692232] 11/7/2024 11:06

Low -as usual share price drifting lower towards 5
Board doing nothing as usual to try to show the value of the company and as a result no interest from buyers of shares accordingly

When will it ever change ???
They need a rocket up their backsides
Alm

[ertugrul] 05/7/2024 16:46

Gold making a good move again today

[lowtrawler] 04/7/2024 12:30

We should maybe start a sweepstake on when the first processing of the TSF will take place. I'm thinking mid-2026 but I have no real confidence on timing.

[dangersimpson2] 04/7/2024 10:42

100% may well be optimistic, but I think there are some reasons to think the economics of this have improved recently. Firstly, higher interest rates, so if they are taking loans to pay customers for materials they have processed but are waiting for refining capacity to be paid themselves, the interest rate matters. Also, it seems the timeline for refining has become extended, presumably as the higher gold price leads to more demand. Then transport costs have gone up due to the Red Sea disruption.

So I agree, politics are probably the main driver, but it could certainly have a quick payback in the current environment, and let's face it, Goldplat management is not always the most proactive with things like this. e.g. buying generators that get delivered just as the electricity situation improves.

I don't understand the details of what they currently produce in terms of refined products and how the 900k will change that, but the RNS talks of a clear preference of the Ghanaian authorities to refine to bullion, which suggests to me that at least some of the production will be exported as bars (although perhaps requiring further refining).

[kimboy2] 03/7/2024 18:50

I am not sure the return on the Ghana investment will be 100%. They already have an elution capability there. I presume that they are upgrading that.

If the return was 100% I would have expected it to have been done already.

It smacked of politics to me. Perhaps it is something to do with the license delay. There is also the mercury thing ticking away somewhere. IIRC GDP were on the panel investigating it.

Quite a few shares traded today. Someone seems keen. At some stage this water license is going to be granted, and I suspect we will no doubt be the last to find out.

I presume people at DRD will be the first as they are handling the application.

Just a thought.

[lowtrawler] 03/7/2024 17:36

Taking a look at what should happen to the GDP share price once the TSF is fully documented and underway. Using kimboy's assessment from post 11172, @ $2,150 gold, there should be a gross profit of around $70m split over 6 years (based on last quarters investor call), about $50m after tax. Assuming the $50m is split evenly over the 6 years and using a discount rate of 18% with year 1 commencing immediately - I think it will not be fully reflected in the share price until underway....

The DCF value is c.$29m or c.£23m, about 14p per share. If the plan is to fully distribute these profits, it should all be reflected in the share price (the high 18% discount rate takes account of risks). The core business should have a value of 6p - 14p and so the share price should comfortably exceed 20p. I reckon we are probably at least 18 months from monetisation of the TSF but as we gain visibility, the share price should start to head towards the 20p.

The main issues I see are that the TSF returns are still high level and rough - they could be out by a country mile. Also, GDP may choose not to fully distribute the windfall profits.

[ertugrul] 03/7/2024 13:31

dangersimpson2

Absolutely I agree with every single word. This has massive upside and i think its very good time to be in!

[dangersimpson2] 03/7/2024 12:00

Some persistent buying appears to have cleared an overhang. 1.6m shares traded today is around 1% of the company so it is easy to see why this overhang was putting the dampeners on the share price, despite some good news in Ghana.

The increased production of bullion does appear to have been mainly pushed by the Ghanaian authorities keen to extract the maximum value within the country. However, for a relatively small outlay of £900k (less than 2 month's operating profit in Ghana) they should see a significant reduction in transport and interest costs. Their pipeline for refining means that they end up with huge working capital flows, which can be difficult to manage and is one of the reasons they don't pay out their cash balance to shareholders as dividends. If this additional process works out well in Ghana, I would hope they make the same investment in SA. It isn't beyond the possibility that such an investment has a 100% IRR or similar when all costs are taken into account. It may delay dividends a little further into the future, but few of us have 100% pa opportunities with little risk.

[ertugrul] 03/7/2024 11:33

It seems MMs are straggling to find stock and they are doing a false drop and more buyer forcing them to move back up!

[pog1234] 03/7/2024 11:25

Ertugrul, Imhv no big rise (20p level) will occur until the results are stable and have an upward trend, no banana slips and clarity re the TSF

[ertugrul] 03/7/2024 10:25

Good to see little bounce back...

I have no doubt this will come good and will reach where it belongs, I personally believe it will be trading above 20p.

[lowtrawler] 02/7/2024 15:30

MF, I don't think it is the lack of updates or even frequency of updates that are a problem. It is the quality of the updates.

People on this Board have provided more insight to the TSF by investigating planning applications and other announcements than have been provided by our own BoD. The potential coal process has been investigated by this Board and the most likely partner found.

We should not have to go to effort to find out what is happening in our own company. The deterioration of trading in SA should not have come as a surprise. The additional working capital should not have surprised. Either the BoD do not know these things are about to happen or they are choosing not to keep shareholders informed.

As I posted to Kimboy earlier, I don't expect these things to change unless Martin forces them to change. As it stands, GDP have a great niche business with a huge pile of gold waiting to be processed on the side. Once the pile of gold is processed, there is little reason to remain invested.

[lowtrawler] 02/7/2024 14:49

kimboy, always good to hear your perspective.

Essentially, GDP is being run like it is a private family company. The managers and family members know what is happening but they don't want to tell anyone else. Martin is now an insider and so is unconcerned if other shareholders are kept in the dark. Safeguarding jobs is their key concern, not making money for shareholders.

I have said previously, GDP need to provide business cases for the investments they are making. They need to produce a long-term plan and make commitments on dividends. Investments should be at least part funded by debt, forcing them to realise retained profits is not free money. There should be regular and detailed updates on progress with the TSF. As a shareholder, I don't believe GDP treat me as a key stakeholder.

There is no doubt, elevating shareholders to a key stakeholder will require GDP to make difficult decisions and add effort to their reporting. They will only do so if Martin insists as he is the only shareholder with sufficient voice. There has been little evidence of Martin making a difference. Whether this is due to resistance from management, capability or lack of effort, I don't know.

[ertugrul] 02/7/2024 10:49

Lots of questions to be asked but has anyone ever attend to any of their investors Q&A ? they seem to be doing it very often

[michaelfenton] 02/7/2024 08:46

When if ever will the TSF come to fruition? How long does it take to do a sensible fair deal? Ghana now keeping company paying the wages and nothing for shareholders. There is business to be done in SA if they really want it? Fortunately my small remaining holding is my profit but am seriously concerned by the lack of news. Todays RNS does not help just the 2 directors? WTF is going on? Update please.

[kimboy2] 02/7/2024 08:15

The problem with any investment in GDP at the moment is a lack of information.

The major upside depends on getting the TSF processed, we believe. This is held up by a water use license. An application was made in October 2021 and nearly 3 years later we are still waiting for it to be resolved.

Why is it being held up? We haven't been told.

What is the benefit once we get the license? We haven't been told.

South Africa is loss making at the moment due to a lack of supply from current mining operations. What percentage of material comes from this source, and is it terminable? We don't know we haven't been told.

The case for diversification is obvious. This relies on the water use license to provide the funding. Coal has been mentioned, but virtually no other information. Not even the company they have a partnership with.

The recent announcement on the beneficiation in Ghana seemed unalloyed good news. The company obviously thought so as they produced a YouTube interview which repeated exactly what was in the announcement.

What percentage will be beneficiated, how much will it save on transport and refining costs, how much working capital and subsequent interest costs will it save? We have no idea because they didn't tell us or give us sufficient information to work it out.

It is my belief that the TSF is worth about double the market cap, and the value of Ghana is more than the market cap by itself. Wouldn't like to guess about South Africa minus the TSF.

What we need is a report like we used to get from share price Angel or Edison. That explains the operations and puts everything into perspective. It is not independent but at least it gives the management point of view.

[lowtrawler] 28/6/2024 16:35

I topped up a little over a week ago at 7.1p hoping we would bounce back to 8p rather than continue sliding. I think it is now fairly clear we are heading back to the low 6's. We will get the next trading update in about a month but unless SA has shown a marked improvement, I don't see this positively impacting.

So long as Ghana continues to perform, I am unconcerned by the lower share price The most important thing is to see progress on the TSF. I don't believe any value for the TSF is currently built into our share price Once monetisation of the TSF becomes clear and the expected returns more certain, there will be a step-change in the share price I would like to think it will happen this year but, knowing GDP, next year is more likely. Of course, DRD could put us out of our misery by making a bid but I won't count on it.

[michaelfenton] 28/6/2024 06:51

Well said Lowtrawler.

[lowtrawler] 27/6/2024 16:21

ertugral, the market is trying to look forward and value on future cashflows with countless other adjustments including risks, opportunities, threats, management quality, dividend policy etc. Ultimately, the long-term share price comes down to the attributable cashflows either being returned to shareholders or used for business expansion. At any moment in time, valuing using my simplistic method will not deliver any insight to the current price but over a longer period, the share price will tend to reflect the financials. Sometimes that longer period is decades but more normally 5 - 10 years.

In the case of GDP, they have been making a lot of attributable profit but it has all been retained in the business. In theory, that should mean growth leading to additional attributable profit but Ghana is the only area of successful investment we have seen. The lack of shareholder returns means GDP sits on a low rating. The poor quality management and problems in SA are other black marks. Hence, we have a share price at the lower end of what the financials would support.

[ertugrul] 27/6/2024 16:00

Lowtawler - I dont think market values on that way