Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[zzxqry] 16/1/2020 10:59

well said Nod - get this stockstracker off these boards - vermin

[velocytongo] 16/1/2020 10:23

Retail did well last year.

[nod] 16/1/2020 10:20

dplewis1, excellent advice. I did some research and it took me to some very sinister places. StockStracker claims to live in Scotland and be 70 years old. The person posts a wide variety of links to different sites. One link goes to a sinister looking ninja with no public information.I have asked ADVFN to investigate on the basis of spamming 40 times per day. I have found ADVFN support to be hopeless in the past. I would suggest you all write to ADVFN Support and report this person for spamming and posting potentially dangerous links.

[nod] 16/1/2020 10:04

I don't believe that Retail will ever bounce back unless Trade collapses. The long-term history has been that Retail is a hobby centre rather than a profit centre. For 20 years Retail battled to break-even but was important to recruit new troops. Many of these new customers then purchased and played at more local independent stores. These are young kids and can't easily travel long distances to a GW some.The independent network is now called Trade and has grown massively during the past four years. It grew by 200 stores in H1.

[robinnicolson] 16/1/2020 09:54

Sharescope revised their GW forecast figures again. I haven't had time to check but presumably they are now a blend of PH and Edison forecasts.

(All figures £million unless stated)

FY2020:
Turnover: Prev: 279.3 Current: 285.7
EBITDA: Prev: 108.4 Current: 110.2
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 92.8 Current: 95.8
EPS (pence): Prev: 227.2 Current: 234.3
Dividend (pence): Prev: 158.5 Current: 173.5

FY2021:
Turnover: Prev: 293.0 Current: 298.8
EBITDA: Prev: 114.2 Current: 116.2
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 97.8 Current: 101.2
EPS (pence): Prev: 238.7 Current: 246.7
Dividend (pence): Prev: 166.0 Current: 179.0

FY2022:
Turnover: Prev: 307.4 Current: 310.8
EBITDA: Prev: 116.9 Current: 122.2
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 102.0 Current: 106.0
EPS (pence): Prev: 244.3 Current: 253.9

[velocytongo] 16/1/2020 09:09

Nothing that scientific. Just doubling the H1 and adding a bit for seasonality and slower investment in staff. I also think the Retail profit will bounce back.

My feeling is that for revenues to be growing at this pace the business is acquiring new customers. Previously, I'd thought there was a catch-up process, using social media and electronic marketing to re-engage existing customers but the current growth would suggest otherwise. I get the Contrast Paints launch but that is more margin than topline growth.

[cockerhoop] 16/1/2020 08:28

Op Profit Pre-Royalty
2018
H1 34.5 (40k launch)
H2 30.1
2019
H1 35.3 (AoS launch)
H2 34.5
2020
H1 48.5 (Don't underestimate the Contrast Paints launch!)

I certainly don't dispute broker forecasts are low (they have been for the last 3 years), but we have no way of knowing whether the amazing licence revenues in H1 are replicated in H2. I think there is a decent chance of rev growth H2 over H1 with Sisters of Battle etc.

What assumptions do you make to get to 300 eps? (ie 156p in H2)

[cockerhoop] 15/1/2020 17:41

Whilst the forecasts from PH & Edison are obviously very conservative I'd like to dispel a little of the hype regarding full year outcome.

H2 in the past 2 years has not been more profitable than H1 despite more royalty income being received in H2.

The prime reason for this imo is increased operating costs of which the largest component is the staff discretionary bonus which is paid in H2.

This year H1 has provided exceptional royalty income £10.7m - I think it would be foolhardy to model the same in H2.

So modelling £5m of royalty income in H2, operating expenses of £60m (H1 £54m), gross margin remaining at 69.4%, revenue constant with H1 and introducing a £1.2m net interest charge (IFRS16)

(Edit changed from 262p to 268p as IFRS 16 split across both H1 & H2)

I get 268p EPS diluted. Obviously with Sisters of Battle being so popular along with other releases there is a decent chance of H2 revenue exceeding H1 so potential for some upside but I think 300p is unlikely.

[epo001] 15/1/2020 15:58

Post 3895, spamming ignorant idiot. Plenty of companies bigger than GAW in the FTSE 250. Filtered.

[velocytongo] 15/1/2020 11:44

Another nonsense forecast. Do management really think they'll only make 90p of earnings in H2, which has always been the strongest trading period. Or are they just going to stop selling?
VT

[robinnicolson] 15/1/2020 11:36

The new research note from Edison:

[robinnicolson] 15/1/2020 10:45

FWIW here are the updated consensus broker forecasts:

(All figures £million unless stated)

FY2020:
Turnover: Prev: 279.3 Current: 281.8
EBITDA: Prev: 108.4 Current: 110.5
EBIT: Prev: 92.5 Current: 92.5
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 92.8 Current: 94.3
Post-tax profit: Prev: 75.0 Current: 75.0
EPS (pence): Prev: 227.2 Current: 230.8
Dividend (pence): Prev: 158.5 Current: 171.0

FY2021:
Turnover: Prev: 293.0 Current: 294.6
EBITDA: Prev: 114.2 Current: 116.6
EBIT: Prev: 98.0 Current: 98.0
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 97.8 Current: 99.6
Post-tax profit: Prev: 79.5 Current: 79.5
EPS (pence): Prev: 238.7 Current: 238.7
Dividend (pence): Prev: 166.0 Current: 176.0

FY2022:
Turnover: Prev: 307.4 Current: 310.8
EBITDA: Prev: 116.9 Current: 122.2
Pre-tax profit: Prev: 102.0 Current: 106.0
EPS (pence): Prev: 244.3 Current: 253.9

[nod] 15/1/2020 08:56

Growth in the Trade segment is phenomenal. The key paragraph is copied below. The accounts appear to show that growth in UK/Europe was even better than the growth in USA. "Trade achieved growth of 27% with growth in all key countries. In the period, our net number of trade outlets increased by c.200 accounts which helped drive forward sales in this channel. It's worth noting that a large number of independent retailers now also sell our products online, meaning our customers have more choice than ever about where to buy Warhammer."

[robow] 15/1/2020 08:39

Yes he/she is really irritating. I have filtered as well

[nod] 15/1/2020 08:21

StockSTracker14 Jan '20 - 21:11 - 3887 of 3889(premium) (Filtered)

StockSTracker15 Jan '20 - 05:27 - 3888 of 3889(premium) (Filtered)

[nod] 15/1/2020 08:19

StockSTracker is a Premium member, so I cannot moderate or ban him/her from the board.
S/he joined Advfn on 20 December 2019 and has spammed boards 787 times over 20 days. That's 40 posts a day over the festive season.
If anyone knows how to ban a Premium member let me know.