Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[nod] 14/1/2020 19:03

Theregister.co article focuses on the "Risks and uncertainties" section of the half year report. By necessity, this section of a company report identifies possible risks to inform shareholders. I don't see anything significant in the "Risks and uncertainties" section.

[nod] 14/1/2020 18:53

Today's report is quite calm and encouraging about the ERP projects."we have made some good progress on implementing our European ERP system and upgrading our warehousing capacity and systems in both Memphis and Nottingham. All projects are broadly on track and in line with spending limits."

[nod] 14/1/2020 18:27

PH is again forecasting "currency headwind". They must be forecasting a rising GBP against USD. I wouldn't put money on that myself.If you keep forecasting rain throughout a drought, you are bound to get it right one day.

[cockerhoop] 14/1/2020 17:39

The ERP has certainly taken longer than expected and has cost more than originally budgeted.
At the agm they stated that Trade Sales had been rolled out (June 19) with Retail and Production still to be completed.
The risk statement will have been in every AR since 2015/16 so is nothing new.

[robinnicolson] 14/1/2020 16:20

"Tabletop battle-toys purveyor Games Workshop again warns of risks in Microsoft Dynamics 365 ERP project.

Project holding steady for resident techies but white knuckle ride continues"




Just checked in the annual reports. The initial work on the ERP project was started back in 2015/16.

[shanklin] 14/1/2020 15:30

Apologies VT, seems a completely feasible share price if we extrapolate a bit further.

[velocytongo] 14/1/2020 15:25

Sorry, meant £90! -:)

[shanklin] 14/1/2020 15:20

VT, £900 would be nice but even I am not that optimistic :-)

Perhaps in another 3 or 4 years

[velocytongo] 14/1/2020 15:12

Are PH and management seriously suggesting that they'll only do 90p of earnings in H2, which includes Xmas and has traditionally been the strongest trading period? That's just silly and makes management look like fools. I'd think £900 by year-end. A rating of 30 times (300p EPS) for a high-quality business with global growth prospects.

[nimbo1] 14/1/2020 14:58

Could see £100 this year.

35 X c.300p eps. (its not going to be £2.33!)

That would still be a lower rating than companies with way lower operating metrics than GAW.

IMO only.

[shanklin] 14/1/2020 13:55

LOL, a stunning upgrade of 6p in EPS terms for FY19/20

[cockerhoop] 14/1/2020 13:35

Product launch this summer - seems like the 9th Edition rumours are perhaps correct?

Royalty income numbers look incorrect from PH

30x suggest EPS of £2.33 which follows PH previous form.

[robinnicolson] 14/1/2020 13:21

More from house broker PH:

"The shares have continued to perform well, which is not surprising given the strong performance and high returns. There is still a lot to look forward to, with a product launch this summer, the development of TV series and animation and the activity of licence holders. Our forecasts imply a slight reduction in H2 profits versus the prior year. This is to take into account a less helpful product mix versus H1, currency (headwind of c.£2-3m), lower royalty income (£2.3m versus £5.5m) and potential for a lull in sales ahead of the summer product launch. The company has made a good start to H2, which could make this too cautious. We have increased our target price to 7,000p, which equates to 30 x 2020E."

[rndm355] 14/1/2020 12:03

Some comments here:

[makw61] 14/1/2020 10:54

In terms of royalties it might be Marvel Comics, Bandai or even Hachette i guess. No real visibility over the timing of when contracts are signed so difficult to tell, but plenty of upside on the IP front here.

[cockerhoop] 14/1/2020 09:54

Nod,

It is very intriging not knowing what the £6.2m of new royalty streams signed in H1 relate to - we know not Eisenhorn. The size suggests blockbuster video games but I've not seen too many rumours flying around regards new games.

Promising as obviously the royalties booked only relate minimun income guarantees.

[nod] 14/1/2020 09:39

The more than doubling of Royalties doesn't include any upfront payment for Eisenhorn. That's encouraging."Our development work on a TV series, based on the Eisenhorn series of novels, continues to make good progress. No production contracts have been signed yet nor have we booked any guaranteed royalties. Our small, dedicated team of experts continues to work with our external partners learning how this industry works to ensure, if it does go into production, our first TV show is not only true to our IP but is a commercial success too."

[shanklin] 14/1/2020 09:38

Hi Robin

Are there any new forecasts please?

[robinnicolson] 14/1/2020 09:32

Peel Hunt have increased their PT by 40 percent to 7,000p.

PH: "There is a lot of encouragement given strong sales progress and step-up in monetisation of the IP".

[costax1654x] 14/1/2020 08:43

? #orm hmm!5-6 mil cash + gold assets ,no Debts all for 3 mil mcap!!!?

[velocytongo] 14/1/2020 08:13

Full year EPS should be near 300p at least. They normally make more in H2 due to Xmas so that is being conservative. No slowdown in momentum. If I’m being picky, uk store profit fell but there is revenue growth in all geographies. I would expect an upgrade soon.

[nod] 14/1/2020 08:02

The ratio of increased Profit to increased Revenue is around 70%. Which suggests our operational gearing is kicking in again after a drop during the expansion phase.