Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 18:43

6671 from you and 6699 from fenners66

[epo001] 03/12/2024 18:29

6705, what conspiracy theory would that be?

Good and relevant point about 250 trackers selling, while 350 trackers just sit on their hands. All depends on fund size of course. Using your numbers, if held in proportion, then 250 tracker sellers would hold about 4/310 (say 1.3%) of their holdings, while 100 buyers would acquire 4/2000 (say 0.2%) of theirs.

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 18:08

The mcap of the FTSE 100 is 2,000bn, the mcap of the FTSE 250 is 310bn so there would have to be 6.5 times more investment in FSTE 100 trackers than FTSE 250 trackers to be neutral.

[rkeck] 03/12/2024 16:59

I am curious following the debate on here…there is 100% definitely more money invested in FTSE100 than FTSE250 trackers and it isn’t close. I have just checked the market caps and GW will definitely be announced as “promoted̶1; tomorrow after close of business (as before - it moves across to the new index on Dec 23rd).

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 14:47

To illustrate take the Vanguard Tracker ETF's

FTSE 100 is £1.3bn, FTSE250 (which GAW will be leaving) is £2.8bn and GAW was a larger proportion of the 250 than it will be of the 100 so Vanguard will be net sellers.

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 14:02

The hole in your conspiracy theory is that there is very little cash in FTSE 100 trackers so the promotion will have little effect on the share price Any tracker buying will be after inclusion in the Index.

[epo001] 03/12/2024 13:53

Thing is, if the expectation is FTSE promotion then buying pressure makes 'materially ahead', immaterial.

If tracker funds and the like expect to have to own the shares from tomorrow, have they already done their buying? I.e. if promotion is confirmed will we see further large buys or have these likely to have been done? (I'm read somewhere that the promotion is decided today.)

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 11:55

Generally 10% variance up or down

[davidglass half full] 03/12/2024 11:46

What is the definition of material?

[cockerhoop] 03/12/2024 11:06

Once the company is aware it is trading materially ahead of expectations it is required to inform the market.

[fenners66] 03/12/2024 10:58

akhilsoni86
Thanks for your reply.

You missed my point about "mark to market bonuses" - I was not referring to the directors or staff , but instead to those institutional investors. Just googled the major shareholders as at 31/8 about 35% declared as interest over 3% and Baillie Gifford top of that list with 10.35%.

They are the likely beneficiaries of any move up to the FTSE 100
And yes my comment allows for the boost to the share price for getting into the FTSE being potentially transitory, but the city spivs will not care if they get part of an end of year bonus linked to GW. If it goes down next year or drops out of the FTSE well a bird in the hand and all that.

As for the CEO why did they make this announcement a week or 2 early ?

As I said I fully endorse looking after a business and letting the share price look after itself. I abhor most company share buybacks as most of the justification is about managing the share price instead of investing in growing a business. But this snippet of info is not that. It cost nothing. It was going to be released soon enough anyway and unless someone comes up with a definitive reason otherwise I still hold the FTSE reshuffle as a plausible incentive to go early.

[rkeck] 03/12/2024 08:36

hxxps://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

Not sure if above link will work. If not, just google FTSE rankings. List just updated with GW at 85.

[strollingmolby] 02/12/2024 23:37

The UK’s blue-chip share index could be about to be invaded by Space Marines, Weirdboyz and Chaos Knights.

Games Workshop, the UK maker of miniature wargames, is on track to be promoted to the FTSE 100 when the next quarterly reshuffle is calculated later this week, taking its place among the 100 most valuable companies listed in London.

The company is valued at £4.6bn – enough to merit a place in the FTSE, on current prices – nearly 50 years after it was founded in London.

The continued success of its science-fiction fantasy miniature war franchise, Warhammer, lucrative new licencing deals, and a pick-up of interest during the Covid-19 lockdowns, have helped Games Workshop beat forecasts for revenue and profits in recent years, pushing its value steadily higher.

...

[rkeck] 30/11/2024 08:53

Current share price moves GW to about the 86th largest market cap in the FTSE (and I sense the market is now pricing in full entry to the FTSE 100 index).

FTSE changes are announced this Wed (after close of business on 4th) based on closing prices tomorrow with new entrants trading in the different index from Dec 23rd.

[robertbarns1] 30/11/2024 00:16

i first bought these in 2008 at 135p now its over 100 bagged



it is the best long term share ever

[shanklin] 29/11/2024 14:55

“especially small ones”… LOL

[gooseygander] 29/11/2024 14:18

Through 14k ... who'd have thought

[rkeck] 29/11/2024 11:03

Kirkie - thank you for explaining as I never knew that… baffling… and more than confusing but I now understand.

NB I just exchanged messages about this with a friend who runs Research globally at a major Fund Manager. She replied: “ Presumably these guys have a March-June YE - that’s pretty common for UK companies, especially small ones”.

[kirkie001] 29/11/2024 10:45

RKeck - it's convention: when the year end in question is some time in 2025, then the quarters within that year are referenced with that date - Q1 25, Q2 25, etc etc.

[rkeck] 29/11/2024 07:39

Thanks Nod. Unless your piece is a prophecy you seem to have the wrong year inserted in many places (gee I would love to read an article from the future).

[nod] 28/11/2024 21:02

22 November 2024Games Workshop Group - A notable acceleration in Q225Games Workshop Group's (GAW's) H125 trading update suggests the company enjoyed a strong Q225 in both its core business (due to the launch of the fourth edition of Age of Sigmar midway through Q125) and licensing (due to the success of the Space Marine 2 video game). These are impressive in the context of the tough comparative from the prior year's launch of the new edition of Warhammer 40K (40K) and the currency headwinds in the early part of H125. We upgrade our profit estimates for FY25 (by 7%) and FY26 (by 3%) to reflect the outperformance versus our prior expectations.EdisonApologies if posted previously - I've not been keeping with posts.

[nod] 28/11/2024 20:45

Steady as she goes. Don't panic. https://www.edisongroup.com/research/steady-as-she-goes-6/33376/

[rkeck] 28/11/2024 17:00

What a great start to a post… “I’m learning here” … me too and hopefully all of us.

Advantages of being in FTSE100 a) main one (as you suggest) is all the Funds that buy into the stock …passive/FTSE 100 index linked are obliged but also many actively managed funds b) inclusion can create a large and more stable pool of buyers and holders …kind of underpins the share price to some extent c) not sure how true this is but perhaps more media exposure being considered more “blue chip”. Hold in mind on all of these reasons that the upside may already be priced in by the market so far from a given that share price will rise if it does happen (and perhaps will drop a little if it doesn’t for same reason).

[gooseygander] 28/11/2024 15:31

I'm learning here, so is there any benefit of being in the ftse100 .. and I mean any but share price increase with more trading as some linked funds require