Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Games Workshop Group LSE:GAW London Ordinary Share GB0003718474 ORD 5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +15.00p +0.54% 2,790.00p 2,790.00p 2,795.00p 2,810.00p 2,765.00p 2,765.00p 63,576 16:35:11
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Leisure Goods 158.1 38.4 95.1 29.3 905.05

Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3101 to 3125 of 3125 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
24/5/2018
23:30
Good analysis guys. Here are few thoughts and comparisons to get the grey cells working. A very important event over the past 8 years has been the growth in North America (NA being USA and Canada). Over four years, NA sales grew 39% and now provide 42% more revenue than the UK. In 2010, Tom went to live in Baltimore to give the USA his complete focus. It was a bumpy ride. As we know, we benefited last year from a weak GBP. GBP has been 10-20% weaker than in 2012/13. I mention this for the numbers below. The BIG thing though is gearing. These extra sales from North America now give us a higher margin through operational gearing. Social media may have helped sales, although you have to ask why it has not helped Continental Europe sales over four years. They also use Facebook and YouTube. Germany has been specifically targeted by Kevin for 2018/19. Also, UK sales grew a modest 18% over fours years compared to North America growth at 39%. Without the NA growth we would not be crowing today. Again, I question whether the 18% UK growth over 4 years can be attributed to social media or to new products during that time. Below is a snapshot comparison between 2012/13, which was quite a good year returning a dividend of 58p, and 2016/17 an even better year all round. Revenue by Customer Location 2012/13 vs 2016/17 (millions rounded) and pct change UK 34 v 40 change +18% Europe 44 v 43 change -2% North America 41 v 57 change +39% Asia 14 v 17 change +21% ROW 2 v 2 change -20% but small numbers
nod
24/5/2018
19:24
Yeah, GW is a curious case of strategy fix done right and I am also not sure about how the company will perform in the long run. I am pretty sure that the company will manage to keep the sales level high in the nearest future, however, I am not so sure about how are they going to attract new customers. We saw a few attempts to go into new directions like a variety of skirmish type games to go into smaller scale games, push-fit and Warhammer adventures to go to the younger audience, but all of them don't seem to be very impactful(or I just didn't find any evidence). Without new customers, GW will likely face a ceiling for its sales in a very near future. What do you guys think?
santr0
24/5/2018
19:09
If you've got the time & inclination the thread over the last couple of years does have a lot of background info as the transformation has unfolded.
cockerhoop
24/5/2018
18:15
Thanks guys, for the additional insights provided. That's really helpful as it's rather hard to grasp the quality of current releases from an outsider's perspective. I played Warhammer Fantasy once but left the game some 15 years ago. Not planning to come back to it, but the revival of the company's fortunes is interesting to watch. When I looked into in 2015 it seemed like the company was on its back. How much has changed since then! I find it somewhat hard to judge how sustainable this growth is though, so I will probably have to check in more often. Cheers, Timberwolf.
timberwolfequity
24/5/2018
15:06
Thanks for sharing your analysis! Recently I did some research about the company as well and I managed to identify several more reasons other than rise of social media. - A massive increase in production. The number of weekly releases effectively doubled over the last few years. Nowadays we receive a new codex every couple of weeks with a wealth of new releases. - Smaller entry barrier. New starter sets are a fairly cheap way to get into the hobby. A small 1000 points army will cost only around £250 with all of the basic paints, rules and etc. - Simply better products. Both rules and models are better quality these days. We don't have top and bottom tier codexes where bottom ones had no chance against the top. Still, there are ways to get better but much better than before. - Changes of 2 man shops into 1 man shop - Softer IP policies allowed us to enjoy several great games like Total War: Warhammer 1 and 2 as well as Vermintide series. - Improved pre- and aftersale support. Now we have a lot of different videos and articles that introduce the customers to the new products and show how to work with them to get better results. There is no single reason that caused such a surge in share price. It is a myriad of small bits and pieces that management did right that ended up with a much better customer experience and more effective marketing. GW had a huge untapped potential with all of its customers that left or were not able to join the hobby. Nowadays it is a question of will GW be able to keep up with the standard that it set up.
santr0
24/5/2018
15:06
I think you've spotted one of the many reasons for the improvement in performance. Social media is being used much more skillfully and with massively increased content. The primary reason is though new management - Kevin Rountree has changed to whole culture of the company from one that hated it's customers to one which is actively engaging with them. It's emphasis has moved from collecting and painting models back to playing the game. Everyone I speak to in shops etc point to Kevin having improved the company. Skirmish is an example of this, fast paced boxed games that take a couple of hours to play but whose figures also tie in to a full game play. Cheaper pricing of starter kits has helped new players become hooked. The pace of release has increased massively 40K released in June last year, all Codex's released within 12 months clearing the boards for the AoS release this June. Royalty income has been more actively pursued. Expansion of geographies being strenuously pushed. The underlying fantasy gaming genre is also going through a resurgence which is a tide lifting all boats.
cockerhoop
24/5/2018
14:22
Hi, for those of you who are interested I have written a short analysis of the company's surprisingly strong performance of the last two and a half years or so. http://bit.ly/timberwolfequity-gamesworkshop
timberwolfequity
18/5/2018
20:20
Hi! The second part of the financial year was nearly always bigger than the first one (10 out 11 years), on average 7.1% (and 23% last year), given a strong growth over the last year we can assume that it will be at least average. The EPS for the H1 97.6 so H2 will around 104.5. So it gives us 202. Given the EPS of 15, it gives us the price of 3030, so the current price can go up a little.
santr0
18/5/2018
19:12
Hi guys,I would love some thoughts re other peoples ideas on EPS for the year about to close, my thoughts are as follows.EPS for the interims showed an increase from 42.1p to 95.1p, a growth in eps of 126%Last year the second half earnings were 63.6p, the company has now said on 3 separate RNS's that they are still showing good growth rates, so my thoughts are to halve the EPS growth to 63% for the second half of the year this would give second half earnings of 99.59pThat would means a total EPS for the year of 197.19pA P/E ratio of 15 on the year about to end would give a price target of £29.57Does anyone have any thoughts?Good luck all holders
pnetol
18/5/2018
12:03
There was a big supply that was constantly reloading at £25, no great surprise as a nice round number, it had been almost exclusively buys so I am guessing that the supply was exhausted and still a lot of demand. It bodes well for the year end trading update early June GLA
pnetol
18/5/2018
11:07
Does anybody know the reason for such a surge in price?
santr0
18/5/2018
11:02
AWESOME !!
flatoutfred
18/5/2018
10:45
Heavy trading volume in GAW in the last few days.
robinnicolson
17/5/2018
23:38
Regarding manufacturing capacity, GAW has recognised the importance of preparedness in the Risks section of its interim and final reports. In January they wrote:"In relation to factory capacity, given the step change in our performance in the last two years we need to ensure we have the appropriate infrastructure to support the new levels of product volumes in our vertically integrated business. We are making the necessary and appropriate investments in factory capacity to manage these risks."
nod
17/5/2018
19:34
June 2 - Looking strong
hatfullofsky
17/5/2018
19:33
Special divi on the way hopefully.
discodave4
17/5/2018
16:30
Interesting finish. News due?
allstar4eva
17/5/2018
13:28
Nod, Good point. I think we're talking about two slightly different things. I could believe that the moulding tools probably do go out of date quickly and need to be updated with more modern and accurate equipment. The actual moulds for the plastics are very robust and last a long time. But I guess there is an element of IP attached to the plastic moulds and the two year depreciation might be related to accounting needs and a rough time line on how long they think they will produce from that mould before re-designing the miniature with a new mould. GAW could also have a view on replacing the whole moulding process with 3d printing in the future - other companies are heading in that direction although not in the volume that GAW have.
skirbell
16/5/2018
23:02
A decision taken in January this year is to depreciate tools at 50% in year one and each year thereafter. This means that after two years of use they don't have much book value."Previously moulding tools were depreciated on a straight line basis over a period of 48 months. Moulding tools relating to specific products are now amortised on a reducing balance basis at 50%."
nod
16/5/2018
17:34
Quite a bit of volume the last few weeks here...
allstar4eva
16/5/2018
13:18
Thank you nod and skirbell
shanklin
16/5/2018
12:27
Actually, the moulds for hard plastic miniatures have a very long lifespan. It's the moulds for resin and metal miniatures that have much shorter lifespans. However, the cost of tooling the moulds for plastic miniatures is very expensive and a large upfront cost. You can see the progress GAW have made over the last couple of decades with the quality of their sculpts and production if you search for '40k rogue trader miniatures' and then compare to the current GAW website. Current investment also looks to be paying dividends given the quality of recent releases against stuff that's 3 or 4 years old.
skirbell
16/5/2018
11:56
Hi Martin, In the Interims GAW reports investments compared with the last period: Purchases of property, plant and equipment (4,948) (2,484) that's close to double year on year The first six months was not much less than the whole of last year. The moulds and tools have a fairly short life span - I suppose they are flat out during these boom years. I have a feeling they mentioned this increased spend in an RNS.
nod
16/5/2018
11:39
It's a shame on the UK stock market that a large 40-year old business, now in the FTSE-250, has only one broker covering the company. The problem with this is that every release one broker makes is considered to be representative of "the market". Clearly, over recent years, institutional investors have seen something else.
nod
16/5/2018
11:31
Peel Hunt's Forecasts have always subscribed to a "spike theory" that the 40k launch in June 17 caused a big and relatively brief spike in sales, which would then normalise again. The upgrades we have had since then effectively recognise the "spike" is less short and sharp than previously thought, and the true underlying business better. Having recently upgraded sales forecast for FY18 by c£5m, which is effectively an an increase to the second half number with the first half known, then it tacitly acnowledges underling business is better and "spike theory" less pronounced. In that basis, it would be logical to roll through that £5m sales 2H18 upgrade to a £10m ugrade to FY 19. PH have actually increased FY19 by only £400k according to the post robincollson kindly posted here last week!
simso
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