Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[pnetol] 05/2/2018 12:13

Yet another good trading update , well done GAW and another dividend. 35p per share, fantastic.

[interceptor2] 05/2/2018 12:12

Trading update and dividend RNS

Following on from the Group's update on 9 January 2018, the good growth trends have continued to the end of January. Sales and, given the high operational gearing of the business, profits for 2017/18 to date are therefore slightly above expectations.

Games Workshop also announces that the Board has today declared a dividend of 35 pence per share. This will be paid on 23 March 2018 for shareholders on the register at 16 February 2018, with an ex-dividend date of 15 February 2018. The last date for elections for the dividend re-investment plan is 2 March 2018.

Happy with that and hope to hold longer term.

[discodave4] 05/2/2018 12:10

The dip this morning pre RNS.....erm!Talk about manipulation.

[interceptor2] 05/2/2018 10:20

As bamboo2 mentioned historical support is at 2150 which is the level we are sitting just above now.

On fundamentals GAW look very good value even after such a strong price increase during 2017, which shows how strong the growth has been here. If H2 continues to show good growth at indicated in the last statement, then GAW are likely to be on a single figure PER still. With a strong net cash position and a healthy dividend yield I would view GAW a longer term hold.

[nfs] 05/2/2018 09:32

Is there much selling? Seems like mark downs more likely

[dansaunders25] 05/2/2018 09:12

US market on Friday night should have warned us I guess... Whenever I check up on my investments and they move on market wide sentiment, especially like past 2-3 weeks, I always get the urge to go play some Lemmings.I understand the market got a bit carried away and needed a correction, but they are never seem to make sure whether something is already cheap or not, they will just batter absolutely everything. I guess it's just hold tight time? Really wondering whether this is just a correction market wide or the verge of something more sinister.

[cfro] 05/2/2018 08:39

A bit of panic selling this morning?

[nod] 04/2/2018 19:37

It's also worth mentioning that the digital games also attract new customers to Warhammer. It's not a one-way thing. Many kids play the computer games first and are then drawn to the hobby side of WH. When I started this thread in 2008 Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning (WAR) was being released. This mmorpg was to compete with the hugely popular World of Warcraft mmorpg. WAR was developed by Mythic and acquired by EA. Within just a few months there were 300,000 paying users and it looked as though this would be a huge success and greatly boost GAW sales of its hobby models. Unfortunately the timing was terrible, with the financial crisis hitting EA which reported a $1 Billion loss. EA reigned in both development and servers. WAR ran for four years but was limping along with insufficient server capacity and minimal investment by EA.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warhammer_Online:_Age_of_Reckoning EA have the WAR gaming code, so could resurrect it if Warhammer continues to be popular. Servers are now more powerful and less expensive.

[cockerhoop] 04/2/2018 13:07

Lauders,

It should be borne in mind that many of the participants of the hobby don't ever play games with it, they paint and collect and perhaps read the fiction from the black library.

I was chatting to guys (in their 20's) in the shop recently who were painting AoS figures for a forthcoming painting competition but when I asked about playing with the figures they looked at me like I was mad. Apparently they only played 40k :-)

[lauders] 04/2/2018 12:35

Thank you for the feedback and link Nod! Appreciated. Good to know GAW have some exposure to the digital world but GAW had better hope (pray) that their customers don't move on to other hobbies or get bored. Those are my main concerns, but their new focus on news and customer interaction bodes well I think.

[lauders] 04/2/2018 03:56

Still watching for an entry point and some available cash to coincide here, so may miss my chance, but for current holders or those with cash available this looks interesting:

Nod since you are the "go to person" on all GAW matters please would you remind me of the on-line products that GAW have that mean GAW is not just a figurine manufacturer. I am thinking of the future when perhaps all turns digital and perhaps the youngsters will get bored of painting and gaming. Will that ever be the case in your opinion? Probably many many years away but what are they doing re: far into the future?

[nod] 04/2/2018 01:11

The impact of a weak dollar on GAW is an interesting one to consider.
North America (including Canada) is around 36% of revenues. It is less than than this ratio of profits because a larger portion of US sales are Trade sales with a lesser margin.

The fall in US$ is around 7% since H1 end.
If sustained this may have an impact of 2-3% on H2 profits but not H1 which are already in the bag.
So, impact is fairly small if level is sustained.

Personally, I cannot see the USD falling further. The US economic outlook appears strong and this will eventually be reflected in the currency.
Britain on the other hand has a tough year ahead with Brexit.

[trident5] 03/2/2018 19:49

Isn't "novice TA" a tautology?

[discodave4] 03/2/2018 17:43

bambooThere was a dividend declaration RNS on the 13th Dec, prior to this on the 8th there was a holdings RNS.This has all the RNS's:hTTps://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=GAWApologies if the link doesn't work, sometimes it doesn't when using the ADVFN app on an iPad.DDps sorry for the novice TA posted previously.

[trident5] 03/2/2018 16:28

There's an obvious fundamental story here, that has seen the share 5 bag in just over a year.

The recent weakness could be a result of: a lack of a specific Xmas TU, weak USD, sellers cashing in after a very strong run, concern about sales grwoth levelling off (but that was never proceed in anyway) - or any combination of those.

That's all you need to know.

It would be great if for once you made a prediction before putting the crayons away.

[bamboo2] 03/2/2018 16:17

trident I couldn't see anything on advfn's rns news feed for the date of the gap. I am aware that sometimes advfn misses some rns's, hence the question.

If you don't like charts please use the filter option. cheers.

[trident5] 03/2/2018 16:06

Why not put the crayons away and look up the RNSs. Jeez

[bamboo2] 03/2/2018 15:54

I have been watching the retrace. I think the chart pattern is a Head and Shoulders with a tp approx. 2175. The right hand side of this pattern forms a Falling Wedge with an apex 22-23/2/2018

Historical support approx. 2150

The Last Market price based chart has a gap 2100-2155. I am uncertain what kind gap it is. If it is a Breakaway Gap, it could represent a support zone. If it is a common or area gap it is likely to be filled. It took place on 12/12/2017. Anyone know if there was an rns around then?

[discodave4] 03/2/2018 11:32

Got to break short term support at 2250 first....which may or may not happen, not a TA expert and don't have a glass ball and the handle is not dance related.DD

[trident5] 03/2/2018 11:23

What happens if the 38% fib doesn't hold DiscoDAve.
Do you go dancing?

[discodave4] 03/2/2018 11:18

Thanks Nod.This is undervalued IMO and will be topping up if the drop gets anywhere near the December dip (£20.5).The 50% fib is 2201 and if this doesn't hold, 38% fib is 2048.DD

[pnetol] 03/2/2018 11:11

Hi Nod,That's an excellent post. I think that they have drifted purely on the back of a lack of a trading update which many, including me, had expected around the middle of the month.I have reread the interim results again and I agree with you that they make it clear that they are growing all areas of the business, Christmas trading was good, their engagement on social media has increased massively with no sign of slowing down.On a macro level if the US increase interest rates soon, as is being commented on in the press, then I would imagine that the dollar will gain strength against the pound which would also help us. GLA holdersFingers crossed that we have an update perhaps end Feb early March which I suspect will be accompanied by a dividend of approx 25-30p per share

[nod] 02/2/2018 22:35

A 20% retrace is excessive and with a thin spread in GAW it makes for a very good trading opportunity. January has been a battle, with the dark side gaining the upper hand. A trading update or dividend could catch them off guard. The price needs to reflect fundamentals and future prospects. If revenue has peaked and we are on a steady decline then a 20% retrace may be justified. On the other hand if you believe, as I do, that revenues are sustainable for the next year or two then the share price looks undervalued. GAW is in expansion mode, adding own stores in specified countries (USA, Germany) and Trade outlets globally. Online is growing (all channels are growing equally) and makes the hobby accessible to many customers who can't get to hobby stores. Over several years now, GAW has put significant investment into improving its manufacturing capacity, systems (SAP), processes, and own hobby stores. While the IT projects have clearly been very difficult they should pay off eventually. I remain positive that we will see revenue growth throughout 2018. Our broad geographical spread now gives us a hedge against country-specific economic downturns, when they arise.