Games Workshop Share Discussion Threads

[pnetol] 15/5/2018 15:32

Trying to work out from the weekend warhammer event "blog" whether their is going to be an update for Age of Sigmar?? Has any one else picked up this information??If it's correct that bodes well for the start of next year and will hopefully lead to Peel Hunt revising their figures for 2019. Very pleasing to see lots of buying today at £24.90, at this rate we should be back over £25 soonGLA

[shanklin] 15/5/2018 12:56

Vermintide 2 developers worked closely with Games Workshop on "every line of text"

Ends with

“They approve everything we do: every single asset, every single line of text, everything. So everything goes through, so they are in complete control of what we are doing,” Magnuson said. “But in a good way.”

I wonder if this means the per game royalty payment will be set significantly higher?

[nod] 14/5/2018 00:33

After books and vinyl, board games make a comeback
Tabletop games join trend for ‘the real thing’ over digital – and for having fun with other people



"The tabletop gaming industry looked to be on the wane in 2015, when companies such as Games Workshop, which makes Warhammer fantasy models, were struggling financially. However, profits have since increased as more people move away from screens and towards human interaction in gaming."

[cockerhoop] 09/5/2018 22:17

Yes I think our definitions are the same.

[nod] 09/5/2018 22:12

CH, are we using the same periods? I call FY18 the two halves H118 to end Nov 2017 and H218 to end May 2018 H119 is the first half of FY19 ... up to end Nov 2018 Just checking :)

[robinnicolson] 09/5/2018 16:31

Sharescope just updated their data for GAW, based on the latest PH forecast. Here is the old and revised 'consensus' forecast information:

FY 2018:
Turnover: Prev: £211.4m Current: £216.6m
EBITDA: Prev: £76.9m Current: £80.9m
Pre-tax profit: Prev: £70m Current: £74m
EPS (pence): Prev: 173.4 Current: 183.3
Dividend (pence): Prev: 120p Current: 120p (unchanged)
Net borrowing: Prev: -£22m Current: £-26m

FY 2019:
Turnover: Prev: £199.8m Current: £200.2m
EBITDA: Prev: £62.4m Current: £65.4m
Pre-tax profit: Prev: £55m Current: £58m
EPS (pence): Prev: 136.1 Current: 143.6
Dividend (pence): Prev: 120p Current: 120p (unchanged)

FY 2020:
Turnover: Prev: 208.2m Current: £209.3m
EBITDA: Prev: £65.4m Current: £68.4m
Pre-tax profit: Prev: £58m Current: £61.0m
EPS: Prev: 143.7p Current: 151.1p
Dividend (pence): Prev: 130p Current: 130p (unchanged)

GAW currently on a forecast PE of 13.4, forecast PEG of 0.3, forecast dividend yield of 4.9 and a FCF yield of 4.0 (Sharescope data)

[cockerhoop] 09/5/2018 08:21

Peel Hunt's latest update suggests flat revenue for H218 over H118 compared to the traditional 53/47 split. But clearly predicts 'good growth' over H217.

If sales have actually demonstrated good growth trends in H2 over H1 then Peel Hunt will be in their usual position of behind the curve :-)

I would expect the next major launch to be 2nd Edition AoS - perhaps in 2019?

[nod] 09/5/2018 00:13

CH, it would seem that Peel Hunt got it wrong about a reduction in H2 sales. GAW has just reported "good growth".

[nod] 08/5/2018 22:07

The time between Editions has been reducing from 6-7 years a few decades ago, to 2-3 years today. This may help flatten out the cycles of customer buying. Also, customers don't all start the hobby on the same day. Some will be just starting the hobby today. Many will have started at Christmas and will be adding models throughout the year. Many will spend hundreds or even thousands on the hobby over a few years.I'm sure GW are well advanced on conceptual designs for the 9th Edition.

[cockerhoop] 08/5/2018 14:23

Nod,

PH certainly also modeled a reduction in 40k sales in H2 18 and FY19 after the re-launch surge in sales in H1. Whether this materialises is open to debate.

[nod] 08/5/2018 12:17

If my notes are correct Peel Hunt gave us a forecast PBT of 50m this time last year. Around September, PH increased PBT to 55m. Today, PH has 74m PBT.Peel Hunt has long forecast some large negative that will reduce PBT. Without having their full analysis I cannot understand what they have been predicting. It seems to be more than currency exchange rates.GAW has been investing heavily in capital expenditure on IT and manufacturing. We know the SAP implementation has been more expensive than planned. The project costs will likely be capitalised over 3 to 5 years, unless anything is written off. I can't see that a worst case scenario would be enough to explain PH bearish forecasts.

[interceptor2] 08/5/2018 09:31

Should do Shanklin, 34% of revenues are from the US, also weaker pound will help.

[shanklin] 08/5/2018 09:03

I hope GAW will get some benefit from the US corporate tax cuts.

[nod] 05/5/2018 22:59

Going back to Robin's post quoting Shares Mag quoting Peel Hunt. Note the PH forecast for this year is increased not decreased. The downward forecast is for next FY and last year Peel Hunt got it wrong for this year, when they forecast a quite significant downward forecast, which confused most of us at the time. Peel Hunt will call it right one day, but the past cycles were never as short as Peel Hunt were/are estimating. Also Peel Hunt's downward revision is based on currency headwinds, which is 50/50. I feel GBP will more likely fall back again as Brexit kicks in, reluctance to raise UK interest rates, and some companies leave the UK to camp in Europe. Also, USD looks cheap today. Have bought a few USD on a 12-month view. "Shares magazine article: "Peel Hunt analyst Charles Hall increases his year to May 2018 sales forecast by 6m to 217m and his adjusted profit before tax estimate rises by 4m to 74m, ... although sales and profits will reduce to 200.2m and 58m next year due to demanding comparatives and the impact of currency."

[nod] 04/5/2018 23:38

Stockopedia say the PH forecast is for FY 2018, which is 11/12th gone with only a month remaining to year end on 3 June. GAW refers to results being "slightly ahead of expectations" which I take to be the broker expectations published before GAWs announcement not those after.

[nod] 04/5/2018 23:08

Peel Hunt are GAWs Financial advisers and stockbrokers but their forecasts in recent years and understanding of the business have not looked good and are confusing.PH have to be independent but you would expect them to know as much as we know, if not more as Financial Advisers.

[cockerhoop] 04/5/2018 22:26

I think is prescient to remind people that at this time last year Peel Hunt were f/c 82.1p EPS for 2017 (they eventually did 93.4p) and 72.5p EPS (on higher t/o)for 2018. ie a reduction from 2017!! They're going to do circa £2 EPS so I wouldn't read to much into their forward guidance personally :-)

It certainly doesn't chime with the doubling of production capacity in Nottingham.

[nod] 04/5/2018 21:24

It's good to reviewed on the same page as Tesla :)Stockopedia also surprised by the downward revision in sales forecast by 11.6m to below 200m given the "good growth". Here's an extract from Stockopedia:The consensus forecast for Games Workshop's FY 2018 revenue prior to today's update was actually £211.4 million, a 33.7% gain versus FY 2017. Pre-tax profit was forecast to grow 74%.Due to the fact that its product cycle is somewhat irregular, analysts are forecasting that sales will moderate to £199.8 million in FY 2019.It has a super track record in recent years of beating forecasts, so it's understandable why some might feel that this is pessimistic.I think that to get a fundamental edge in this stock, you need to plug yourself into the product cycle to understand the popularity/direction of their upcoming campaigns.If you don't have the time/wherewithal to do this, and take a more quantitative approach, the stock still has plenty of attractions:

[discodave4] 04/5/2018 20:36

Just read this from stocko, interesting:hTTps://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-fri-4-may-2018-tsla-gaw-num-dpp-mmx-ctr-360863/DD

[discodave4] 04/5/2018 19:45

Correct me if I'm wrong, PH is saying margins will reduce from 34% to 29%, mainly due to currency headwinds I guess. Baffled though, he raises this years sales by £6m but profit by only £4m so improved operational gearing next year but margins drop!.....I'm confused, help!.Does it matter anyway, they've rarely called this one right.DD

[shanklin] 04/5/2018 16:16

From the jobs page amongst other things it is clear GAW are investing heavily in growth. So I can believe costs will be up quite a lot but hopefully this will drive sales growth.

[mad foetus] 04/5/2018 16:02

I just don't understand the predictions for next year. No doubt they will be exceeded.

[shanklin] 04/5/2018 16:00

So, a £16.8m fall in sales will lead to a £16m drop in profits. That is operational gearing.

[robinnicolson] 04/5/2018 12:23

Shares magazine article: "Peel Hunt analyst Charles Hall increases his year to May 2018 sales forecast by £6m to £217m and his adjusted profit before tax estimate rises by £4m to £74m, although sales and profits will reduce to £200.2m and £58m next year due to demanding comparatives and the impact of currency."


The article quotes Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell:

"Ten years ago it would have seemed unimaginable that Games Workshop would end up a FTSE 250 company.

Interest in tiny fantasy figures had waned following a strong period inspired by the success of the Lord of the Rings films.

It battled profit warnings rather than miniature warlords."

"A decade on and its share price has increased more than 12-fold and the company is sitting in the prestigious mid-cap stock market index. The business has struck a chord with a new generation of fantasy fans and is engaging with customers via multiple channels.

While Warhammer figures may not be to everyone’s taste, Games Workshop has proved that it is possible to be a retail success if you know how to connect with your market and have the right products and superior service levels."

[nod] 04/5/2018 09:28

"the good growth trends have continued to the end of April.""good growth" sounds more positive than "slightly"